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Understanding Judgments and Decisions: Enhancing Managerial Assessment Techniques

Chapter 8 explores the complexities of making judgments and decisions in management, focusing on intuitive predictions, judgment aids, and utility analysis. It highlights the importance of evaluating measures without statistical validation and outlines essential questions to determine the validity of traits related to job performance. Further, the chapter examines managerial perspectives on assessments, common misconceptions about test validity, and the balance between intuitive and statistical judgment. Managers are encouraged to utilize structured approaches and detailed protocols to improve decision-making transparency and effectiveness.

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Understanding Judgments and Decisions: Enhancing Managerial Assessment Techniques

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  1. Chapter 8 Making Judgments and Decisions P189 • Intuitive Predictions • Judgment Aids • Utility Analysis chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions

  2. JUDGMENTS OF VALIDITY • Evaluating a Measure • Without statistical validation – judge job relatedness based on sequential questions: • Is trait related to performance (link KSA -> task)? • is the construct a valid measure of the KSA? • Give an example • 12 questions to ask (p190) • Be prepared to answer the questions for a measure you may use chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions

  3. MANAGERIAL USE OF ASSESSMENTS • What do managers want? • Fill vacancy asap • Want the best people • Want it cheap • What do managers know about testing? • Little; no training in psychometrics or test theory • Nothing about construct validity • Misinformed on test validity • Often distrust testing • Some overestimate the validity of tests (especially when over-sold by test vendors (e.g. DISC, MBTI) chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions

  4. JUDGMENTS AS PREDICTIONS AND DECISIONS • What is “common sense”, “intuition?” • Give some examples. • A thought question - • Statistical v. judgmental Prediction • What are the pitfalls with each? • Which is generally superior? (Meehl, ‘54) • Prediction and Decision Without Statistics • Usually the most important jobs have few people • Why is this a problem for using statistics? • How do you deal with this? • Combining Information for Overall Assessment • Average assessments/use common scale chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions

  5. JUDGMENT AIDS • Clarifying Judgments to Be Made • JA is essential! –it makes management focus on what it will take to do the job • Procedural Planning • Make a detailed protocol and document it • Why is this a good thing to do? • Developing Assessment Scales • Use the same scale or different scales? • A structured interview? • Expectancy Charts • What is a theoretical expectancy chart? • How is it used? • Give an example • Expectancy Graphs • Use selection ratio and possible cut scores – • to illustrate selection costs to show validity impact (for managers to understand) • Utility Analysis • Brogden (‘49), Cronbach & Gleser (‘57) • Show relative pay off (average dollar pay off) • Caveat (GIGO) • Concluding Comments • Judgments must be rational and include all infromation available chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions

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