Manifestations and Solutions for Resource Scarcity: Challenges to Traditional Supply/Demand Models

1. consumption will lead to resource scarcity eventually – we are entering this era now but are in complete denial about it. Rare Earth’s are the first indication. What are the manifestations and solutions? Challenges traditional supply/demand economic models Requires some component of morality based decision making Requires public policy based on avoiding the worse possible outcome . The time is near (10-20 years) for the end of “cheap” fossil fuels as our energy foundation Solutions do exist – implementation takes leadership and the ability to think big The Public needs to become a lot more energy and climate literate in order for initiatives to succeed

2. Big E or Little e  Globalization and Change US = 5* (China+India) Post WW II Japan + Germany = 0.5*US (China + India) = 3* US Japan + Germany = 0.2*US Turkey > Japan, France, Germany New Players = Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey

3. A reminder of our religion in America Our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfactions, our ego satisfactions, in consumption. The measure of social status, of social acceptance, of prestige, is now to be found in our consumptive patterns. The very meaning and significance of our lives today is expressed in consumptive terms.

4. The Consumptive Mandate Waveform: if you got more, consume even more: Maintain BAU Greed sustainability

5. Accelerated Climate Change CONSUMPTION 

6. What Are the BAU Options? • LNG Importation development • “Clean Coal” • Fast Breeder Reactors • NG Fracking (steel problem) • Fastest gateway to energy economy • Leads to Growth of GDP • Accelerates Global CO2 Deposition • Reinforces BAU –mine the planet

7. Mass consumption looks like this Economics not sustainability awareness

8. Giant diffuse collection points of the plastic waste of humanity. Takes many years for individual bottle cap to find itself here. Ocean Gyres

9. Cheap plastic crap here The WalMart Express

10. Globalization Wave Form Factor of 10 Growth in just 25 years! This is the principle driver of Climate Change

11. Global Economic Meltdown  temporary blip 12% Annual Growth Rate last 3 years Need more Super Container Fleets and Ports to Scale

12. Shipping fleets gear up to serve more and more consumers 2015: MSC Oscar 19924 TEU!

13. Global Trade is driving Global Inequity: 2014: 83% of wealth owned by 8.5% of the world

14. Breaking out of BAU • Consume less • Drive less • Plan ahead • Invest in Renewable Energy infrastructure • Have long term governmental goals • Instill consumer morality based decision making • Requires actual leadership • Requires world cooperation – one planet Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?

15. Business world analogy The 7 reasons that (business) culture resists change  • There isn't any real need for the change • The change is going to make it harder for them to meet their needs • The risks seem to outweigh the benefits • They don't think they have the ability to make the change • They believe the change will fail • Change process is being handled improperly by management • The change is inconsistent with their values

16. 2. The change is going to make it harder for them to meet their needs Reducing consumption and consumption fossil fuel based energy is too hard to do and will significantly compromise my current lifestyle. Furthermore, since there is not evidence that compels me to make such a change, Fuck it …

17. 3. The risks seem to outweigh the benefits My short term economic security is far more important than long term benefit for the planetary ecosystem

18. 4. They don't think they have the ability to make the change I am an individual, what can I do that will actually make any impact?

19. 5. They believe the change will fail Since there is no evidence that changing our consumption habits will have any positive effect then any such mandate to change will surely fail and have significant negative consequences.

20. 6. Change process is being handled improperly by management We don't trust our government to make a fair set of regulations. We don’t trust scientific advisors to the government to be unbiased. All policy recommendations serve only self-interests. There is not gov’t for the people anymore …

21. GOD Certainty Entitlement Aarogance Connectivity Of Atoms HUMANS HUMANS NATURE Wisdom Enlightenment Humility Super Nova ROCKS TREES TREES ROCKS Everything Is Connected to Everything Disconnected States

22. 7. The change is inconsistent with their values Of course it is! We are not part of nature; we control nature; nature does not control us. We are not in partnership with nature. The Aboriginal world view of connectivity is bullshit. Humans are special.

23. But Solution Space Exists! • Solar PV • Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric • Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) • Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids) • Biomass Co-Generation • OTEC; Gulf Current • Live in Ambient Partnership with Nature

24. Barriers to Renewables • High capital cost; long payback times • Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on truly large scale projects • NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes implementation difficult • Technology uncertainty • Grid Limitations • Human apathy, ignorance, entitlement

25. Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Renewables • 1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM2) • 2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton) • 3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW) • 4. MW output versus production time scale to bring on line (months/MW) • 5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt) • 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH)

26. To Evaluate Competing Electricity Generating Technologies • Develop an internally consistent indexing system for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow jones is an index) • Use real world data and real world physics to best determine the values • Weight the indexes appropriately (real world cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created) • Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the following exercise

27. Indexing – Solar Troughs • 1. Land ~20 MW/km (over 24 hour day) = 1 • 2. Materials ~3 tons per kw = 1 • 3. Jobs ~3 jobs per MW • 4. Time ~10 MW per month • 5. Capital ~3$ per watt real facility cost • 6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH

28. Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5)3+4+1.25(5)+1.25(6) Highest Index is Best

29. Relative Ranking • Solar = 7 • Waves =4.75 • Biomass =11 (because of jobs created) • Wind = 17 (lower material intensity and low Levelized costs) • In general, wind is more scalable than Solar and wind always beats Solar PV

30. Thinking Big -Solar • Sonoran Desert Project: 300,000 square km @ 2% coverage yields 100,000 MW

31. Thinking Big - Wind Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each containing 1200 5 MW turbines: 180,000 MW

32. Thinking Real Big - Wind Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind Turbines: Construct 10,000 of these (Space Needle Size) and each per 125 square km. This produces 1TW of electricity and effectively replaces all other forms of electricity generation in the US.

33. Be Optimistic and ProActive • Change can occur when consumers are properly informed. • Technological solutions exist to make significant impact if deployed now • Consume Less • Technology is rapidly improving • We are probably NOT Terminally Stupid

34. You have three choices: Make the Wise Choice Practice BAU Give UP Proactive: Educate your Peers