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Risk assessment in trans-boundary cooperation between the Netherlands and Germany

Risk assessment in trans-boundary cooperation between the Netherlands and Germany. Jan Stijnen. Presentation overview. Introduction Study area Risk-assessment method Sensitivity analysis Summary and future plans. Introduction.

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Risk assessment in trans-boundary cooperation between the Netherlands and Germany

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  1. Risk assessment in trans-boundary cooperation between the Netherlands and Germany Jan Stijnen Flood Defence

  2. Presentation overview • Introduction • Study area • Risk-assessment method • Sensitivity analysis • Summary and future plans Flood Defence

  3. Introduction • Flood protection in boundary area of Germany and the Netherlands • Identify and reduce flood risk for 2 dike ring areas along the Rhine • Cooperation! Flood Defence

  4. Introduction • Project initiation: 2005 • Three phases • Communication and identification (2006) • Risk-analysis of right-hand side dike ring (2007) • Risk-analysis of left-hand side dike ring (2008) • Joint method, based on existing software/techniques • Time horizons: 2006, 2015 and 2015+ Flood Defence

  5. Study area Transboundary dike rings along the river Rhine Flood Defence

  6. Study area Dike ring 48 Dike ring 42 12.5 miles Flood Defence

  7. Scope of the project Flood Defence

  8. Failure mechanisms Flood Defence

  9. Computation of failure probabilities • Overflow • Wave overtopping • Bursting of the soil & piping • Stability of the slope • No structures Flood Defence

  10. Failure mechanisms / probabilities • Identification of 10 weak spots, based on Dutch deterministic assessment method and local expert knowledge • Probabilistic computation of failure probabilities every 100 meters for wave overtopping only • Detailed probabilistic computation of failure probabilities for 10 weak spots Flood Defence

  11. Differences in dike design T = 1250 years T = 500 years Flood Defence

  12. Difference in maintenance Flood Defence

  13. Breach and flood simulation Flood Defence

  14. Breach and flood simulation Flood Defence

  15. Damage and loss of life module Land use Damage assessment Flood simulation Flood Defence

  16. Flood risk Risk=probabilityconsequence Flood Defence

  17. Cost-benefit analysis of measures Types of (structural) measures: • Dike strengthening • Compartment dikes Flood Defence

  18. Compartment dike Flood Defence

  19. Compartment dike Flood Defence

  20. Sensitivity analysis Verification of sensitivity to assumptions • Critical overtopping discharge • Breach development (width, water level, moment of breach) • Flood wave (shape and height of discharge wave) • Correction of damage and costs Flood Defence

  21. Summary and future plans • Cooperation very successfull as a result of the communication and identification phase • Much added value because of different partners • Project in last phase • Final results this summer (symposium) Flood Defence

  22. Thank you for your attention! Flood Defence

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