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Future Climate and Domestic Carbon Emissions

Future Climate and Domestic Carbon Emissions. Lessons from The 40% House project Sukumar Natarajan The Manchester Built Environment Research Group. Combined Natural + Anthropogenic Emissions. Context Climate Change.

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Future Climate and Domestic Carbon Emissions

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  1. Future Climate and Domestic Carbon Emissions Lessons from The 40% House project Sukumar Natarajan The Manchester Built Environment Research Group

  2. Combined Natural + Anthropogenic Emissions ContextClimate Change • Global average surface temperature increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C • Future temperature rise (max) could be between 4 - 6°C(IPCC 2001)

  3. Consumerism World Markets (High) Provincial Enterprise (Medium High) Interdependence Autonomy Global Sustainability (Low) Local Stewardship (Medium Low) Community 40% House Scenarios “New technologies, materials and construction processes are adopted and the UK becomes more open to non-traditional building techniques.” ConventionalDevelopment “Improving the quality of housing is a political priority for social as well as environmental reasons (energy efficiency). However, efforts are limited by budget constraints”

  4. ScenariosExample: Double Glazing • The current UK average U-Value (double glazing only) is 2.5 W/m2K • Current best practice is 0.6 W/m2K (designated as the Technical Potential or TP) • World Markets: to 1.4 W/m2K • desire for perceived best tech, • Provincial Enterprise: 2 W/m2K (BReg 2005) • lower wealth • generally inward looking economy • Global Sustainability: to TP • high wealth • “green consciousness” • Local Stewardship: 0.8 W/m2K • lower wealth • “green consciousness”

  5. ScenariosExample: Comfort Criteria • Based on Delphi Exercise on Thermal Comfort and Temperatures in homes (DECoDE) • Though some issues showed strong agreement, there were also areas where the experts had differing opinions

  6. Heating Demand

  7. EnergyChanges to Heating Demand

  8. EnergyChanges to Heating Demand

  9. Carbon Emissionsheating profile only

  10. Cooling Demand

  11. Real Forecast ContextDomestic Air Conditioning

  12. Per Dwelling Cooling Demand ‘Raw’ demand figures

  13. Implied Penetration Edinburgh:WM – 0% PE – 0% Manchester:WM – 7% PE – 3% (1.5%) Cardiff:WM – 29% PE – 22% (11%) London:WM – 42% PE – 37% (18.5%)

  14. System Efficiencies • System Efficiencies have been steadily increasing • A maximum COP of 4 is projected for 2050 (all types) • WM – 3.5 • PE – 3.0

  15. Adding up the figures Typical Energy Distribution of the Housing Stock

  16. Carbon Emissionsheating & cooling

  17. Design & Policy Key Messages • Emission reductions *can* be achieved • Demolition vs Refurbishment • Immediate action on insulation standards • LZC introduction is crucial • Summer vs Winter design • The 40% House is a chameleon • Fabric insulation is not best instrument • Optimise window design : shading reduction 70% • Design Temperatures: • Adaptive comfort: Occupant Control • Use of future climate data & adaptive models needs to be pushed by policy

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