The International, Secular Infant Mortality Decline - The Dual Role of Resources

1. Department of Statistics Universitety of Dar es Salaam December 2005 The International, Secular Infant Mortality Decline - The Dual Role of Resources Gunnar Thorvaldsen Registreringssentral for historiske data http://www.rhd.uit.no/

4. Doctoral candidate Bonaventure Ngowi, studying infant mortality and parity

5. Infant mortality study • As is well known both from historical studies of western countries and current developing countries that the life conditions of the mother is a crucial factor with respect to improving children's health and survival chances. Whether she has the time, resources and knowledge to breast-feed and implement other measures of proper child care has time and again been shown to affect the infant mortality rates dramatically. Doctoral student Ngowi analyzes infant mortality in Tanzania with special reference to child spacing and parity. Since the number of children ever born and surviving is a variable in the Tanzanian census, we shall be able with multivariate statistics to analyse the relationships between infant mortality and the mothers' status in different types of families and households. Administered by SEMUT Centre for Environment and Development studies

9. . . . and the superstition surrounding infant care, here magical hut for curing sick babies, Dar es Salaam Village Museum

10. www.whc.ki.se

11. Norway and Sweden

12. Positive effects from resources • T. McKeown (The modern rise of population, 1976): Not health, but nutrition behind the mortality decline • E. Fure (...en besynderlig Regelmæssighed, 2004): Mothers’ health across generations • S. Sogner: Forestry and infant mortality decline in Rendalen • T. Bengtsson et al (Life under pressure : mortality and living standards in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900, 2004): the short-term effects of economic stress on mortality • Japan’s IMR achievement: 1960 -> 30.7 per thousand / 1988 -> 4.8 per thousand • S. Hinderaker (Perinatal Mortality and anaemia in pregnancy in Northern Rural Tanzania, 2003): Arm circumference as proxy for infant mortality in Arusha

13. Infant mortality in a number of countries 1801-1900 Deceased 0-1 years by 100 live births

15. Dead aged 0-1 in Norway 1876-1898 relative to live births The country Rural Towns Black: boys Red: girls Legitimate Illegitimate

16. Main background factors for child mortality in the late 19th century and today

17. Negative or no effect from resources • A. Perrenoud (‘La mortalité des enfant en Europe francophone: etat de la question’, 1994): Can infant mortality develop independently from the surrounding social, economic and cultural factors? Climate! • O. Turpeinen (‘Infant mortality in Finland 1749-1865', 1979): “fluctuations from year to year showed little significant correlation with the extent of the harvest yields. The highest rates of infant mortality figures did not appear in the poorest but in relatively wealthy districts” • R. Engelsen (Sosiale skilnader i mortalitet på landsbygda i Norge i åra 1802 og 1803, 1982): Higher mortality among farmers than among cottars • Ó Garðarsdottir (Saving the Child, 2002): In Reykjavík, the higher social strata initially had higher infant mortality, but benefited sooner from the late 19th century improvements than the lower strata. • England and France in the 19th century (Woods, 2000): Earlier decline for older children than for infants • K. McQuillan (Culture, religion, and demographic behaviour : Catholics and Lutherans in Alsace, 1750-1870, 1999): Occupational differentials in multivariate study are moderate, some effect for children of workers and servants, else little effect • A. Brändström ("De kärlekslösa mödrarna" : spädbarnsdödligheten i Sverige under 1800-talet med särskilt hänsyn till Nedertorneå, 1984)

19. Infant mortality in Sweden 1848-1852

21. Infant mortality and social groups Anders Brändström, Demographic Database, Umeå

23. N. Scheper-Hughes (Death without weeping: the violence of everyday life in Brazil, 1992): The combined effect of economic and cultural factors. • Haines & Preston, (Fatal years : child mortality in late nineteenth-century America, 1991): Relatively better child mortality among the black population. • D. Reher: (‘Do parents really matter? Child health and development in Spain during the demographic transition’, 2003): Much greater impact from losing mother than losing father, especially educated mother. • R Derosas (‘Watch Out for the Children! Differential Infant Mortality of Jews and Catholics in Nineteenth-Century Venice’, 2003): Poor, dense ghetto, but model mothers. • Steady decline in infant mortality in Western Europe in the 20th century independent of business cycles. • N. Hart (‘Famine, Maternal Nutrition and Infant Mortality: A Re-Examination of the Dutch Hunger Winter’ 1993): Only the better-off were fecund, so perinatal mortality did not increase. • N. Morgan (‘Infant mortality in the nineteenth-century Preston’, 2002): Industrial smoke and flies bringing contagion from horse dung affecting infant health negatively in Lancashire • M. Federman et al (‘Industrialization and Infant Mortality’, 2005): Higher infant mortality in the areas with the most polluting industry in Indonesia • C. Stoltenberg: Higher infant mortality among the children born to Pakistani cousins

24. Gross national product per person and infant mortality rates in four developing countries A. Kidanemariam: A Comparative Study of Infant Mortality in Four Developing Countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, South Korea and Sri Lanka. New York2003

25. Infant mortality rates and key independent variables for four developing countries Sources: GNP and IMR 1999 from CIA World Factbook Kidanemariam A Comparative Study of Infant Mortality in Four Developing Countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, South Korea and Sri Lanka 2003

26. Social equality Welfare level Urban / rural Industrialization Pollution Medical services Mothers’ health stations Resourceful individuals Politics Social status Education Nutrition Breastfeeding Infant care Legitimacy Religion Ethnicity Background variables

29. References • Denmark: Anne Løkke, Døden i barndommen, København: 1998 • Grethe Banggaard, Befolkningsfremmede foranstaltninger • og faldende barnedødelighet, Odense 2004. • Iceland: Òlöf Garðarsdottir: Saving the Child. Regional, cultural and socio- • economic aspects of the infant mortality decline in Iceland 1820-1940, 2002 • Finland: Kari J. Pitkänen, ”Infant Mortality Decline in a Changing • Society,” in Yearbook of Population Research in Finland 1983, 46-74. • Sweden: Sören Edvinsson, Marie C Nelson, John Rogers: Dying Young. Swedish infant and childhood mortality in review. Hygiea Internationalis. • Norway: Rural infant mortality in nineteenth century Norway. Hygiea Internationalis: http://www.liu.se/tema/inhph/journal/ • Classic work on neonatology: http://www.neonatology.org/classics/

30. Tidsskrift for Den norske lægeforening 76 (1955), side 815-816

31. Denmark 1850-54

32. Biometric test - Norway

33. Iceland 1920 Survival in days of breast-fed and artificially fed infants in a fishing village in Iceland 1915-1925

34. x

35. Causes of death

36. Infant mortality in Norway 1856-60

37. IMR in Norway 1876-80

38. IMR around1920

39. Dead infants by month of year 1894-97

40. Percent of live births 1876-1898 Dead 0-1 in Norway by age in months Source: Johannessen (1902)

41. IMR by province