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IAU XXVI th General Assembly, Prague

EARTH ORIENTATION PARAMETERS PREDICTION COMPARISON CAMPAIGN (EOP PCC). REPORT. Harald Schuh 1. Maciej Kalarus 2. IAU XXVI th General Assembly, Prague. 1 Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Vienna University of Technology. 2 Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences.

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IAU XXVI th General Assembly, Prague

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  1. EARTH ORIENTATION PARAMETERS PREDICTION COMPARISON CAMPAIGN (EOP PCC) REPORT Harald Schuh 1 Maciej Kalarus 2 IAU XXVIth General Assembly,Prague 1 Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Vienna University of Technology 2 Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences

  2. MAIN IDEAS • to emphasize importance of EOP prediction within the IERS • to compare the various methods, models, techniques and strategies which can be applied for EOP prediction with equal rules • to apply the same statistical method for all results by a „referee” • to collect the predictions before any EOP observations are taken

  3. CATEGORIES OF PREDICTION

  4. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS participant company/organization

  5. 6 8 5 7 6 8 4 6 7 5 5 yp[mas] 3 6 xp[mas] 4 4 5 2 3 3 4 2 1 3 2 1 2 0 0 0 5 10 1 0 5 10 [days] 1 [days] 0 0 2 6 10 2 6 10 [days] [days] ID SELECTED RESULTS 0101 S. Kumakshev ultra short-term predictions of polar motion 0102 O. Akyilmaz 0201 H. Kutterer R. Gross 0301 MPE - Mean Prediction Error DMPE - Error bars of the MPE 0501 LEGEND W. Kosek 0502 M. Kalarus 0601 0701 D. Gambis 0901 L. Zotov 0902 0903 (45 submissions were used) MPE DMPE MPE DMPE

  6. 2 1.5 2 0.6 UT1-UTC[ms] 0.5 1 1.5 0.4 MPE 0.3 0.7 0.5 1 0.6 0.2 0.5 0 0.1 0.5 0 5 10 [days] 0.4 LOD[ms/day] 0 2 6 10 0.3 [days] 0 0.2 2 6 10 [days] 0.1 0 0 5 10 [days] ID SELECTED RESULTS 0101 S. Kumakshev ultra short-term predictions of UT1-UTC and LOD 0102 O. Akyilmaz 0201 H. Kutterer R. Gross 0301 0501 LEGEND W. Kosek 0502 M. Kalarus 0601 0701 D. Gambis 0901 0902 L. Zotov 0903 (45 submissions were used) MPE DMPE DMPE

  7. 150 150 100 100 yp[mas] xp[mas] 50 50 0 0 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300 [days] [days] ID SELECTED RESULTS 0101 S. Kumakshev medium-term predictions of polar motion 0102 O. Akyilmaz 0201 H. Kutterer R. Gross 0301 ABS - Absolute prediction error 0501 LEGEND W. Kosek 0502 M. Kalarus 0601 (310 days of the first predictions were used) 0701 D. Gambis 0901 ABS ABS 0902 L. Zotov 0903 More results at www.cbk.waw.pl/EOP_PCC

  8. CONCLUSIONS • EOP PCC is going smoothly (46 ultra short-term, 11 short-term and 11 medium-term predictions were received) • Error bars (DMPE) of the Mean Prediction Error (MPE) are getting smaller but in most cases they still overlap each other. Therefore, the presented results give only a broad outline. • In order to compute more reliable statistics and find the best prediction product we need more datafor different epochs • Statistical analyses show that for different prediction intervals different methods should be taken.

  9. PROSPECTS • Rules will be slightly changed • IERS Working Group on Prediction • Joint paper presenting results • We are open for new participants

  10. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Website:www.cbk.waw.pl/EOP_PCC E-mail:EOP_PCC@cbk.waw.pl

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