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Ocean Color Experiment Ver. 2 (OCE2) ~ Concept Presentations ~

Ocean Color Experiment Ver. 2 (OCE2) ~ Concept Presentations ~. Parametric Cost S. Seipel May 21, 2012. PRICE H: Key Input Parameters. Global Parameters: Labor Rate Typical Contractor Rates Inflation (NASA escalation rates ) Engineering Environment

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Ocean Color Experiment Ver. 2 (OCE2) ~ Concept Presentations ~

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  1. Ocean Color Experiment Ver. 2 (OCE2) ~ Concept Presentations~ Parametric Cost S. Seipel May 21, 2012

  2. PRICE H: Key Input Parameters • Global Parameters: • Labor Rate • Typical Contractor Rates • Inflation (NASA escalation rates) • Engineering Environment • Individual Cost Component Parameters: • Complexity Factors (Table driven, defined by Price Systems from industry experience) • Modification Level/Remaining Design Factor (Heritage) • Quantity and Design Repeat (Learning Curve) • Composition (Structure, Electronic, Purchased, Cost Pass-through) • Mass • Operating Platform (Unmanned Space – High Reliability)

  3. IDL Parametric Cost Modeling • OCE-2 Parametric Inputs: • IDL Discipline Presentations • Master Equipment Lists for OCE-2 Baseline and OCE-2 Delta • Key Assumptions: • Class B Electronics, except as noted • Typical Contractor Bid Rates • PRICE-H Model with Constant Yr 2012$ • No existing Manufacturing Process and Assembly Line • PRICE-H Estimate for (1) Flight Unit and (1) Fully Integrated Engineering Development Unit • Schedule used in estimate: Phase B start (ATP) 6/2014 • CDR 6/2016 • Start Full-up Environmental Test 8/2017 • Delivery to S/C 6/2018 • Parametric cost models generated for both OCE-2 Baseline and OCE-2 Delta • FSW and FSW Sustaining Engineering costs estimated parametrically using SEER-SEM • IDL Grassroots estimates for detectors, optical fibers, FSW GSE and FSW Simulator Software • Wraps will be used to generate ROM grassroots estimates for items (a) not covered in the parametric estimates and/or (b) generated by IDL discipline experts. • Output Products: • Powerpointpresentation • PRICE H model results exported to Excel Spreadsheet

  4. Quantities • Quantities for OCE-2 and Delta OCE-2 • One Flight Unit • One Fully Integrated Engineering Development Unit • Selective Engineering Test Units (ETUs) at subsystem level • Definition of ETU and EDU: • Engineering Test Units (ETU) or protoflight • Will be tested to flight qualification levels • Can be flown • Engineering Development Units (EDU) (prototype) • Will not be tested to flight qualification levels • Can not be flown

  5. OCE-2Top-Level Cost Model Note: Estimate is based upon Current Best Estimate (CBE) Mass without contingency

  6. OCE-2Expanded Model

  7. OCE-2 Summary Cost Estimate (Typical contractor bid rates, 2012 CY Dollars) Note: Estimate is based upon Current Best Estimate (CBE) Mass without contingency Continued on next page

  8. OCE-2 Summary Cost Estimate (Typical contractor bid rates, 2012 CY Dollars) Note: Estimate is based upon Current Best Estimate (CBE) Mass without contingency

  9. OCE-2 Summary Cost Estimate(Typical contractor bid rates, 2012 CY Dollars) Note: Estimate is based upon Current Best Estimate (CBE) Mass without contingency

  10. DELTA OCE-2Top-Level Cost Model Note: Estimate is based upon Current Best Estimate (CBE) Mass without contingency

  11. DELTA OCE-2Expanded Model

  12. DELTA OCE-2 Summary Cost Estimate (Typical contractor bid rates, 2012 CY Dollars) Note: Estimate is based upon Current Best Estimate (CBE) Mass without contingency Continued on next page

  13. DELTA OCE-2 Summary Cost Estimate (Typical contractor bid rates, 2012 CY Dollars) Note: Estimate is based upon Current Best Estimate (CBE) Mass without contingency

  14. DELTA OCE-2 Summary Cost Estimate(Typical contractor bid rates, 2012 CY Dollars) Note: Estimate is based upon Current Best Estimate (CBE) Mass without contingency

  15. IDL Point Design Estimate & Cost Risk • The IDL Cost Estimate is a Point Estimate based on the single point design of the instrument • The point design that the IDL derives in a 1-week study is an engineering solution, but not necessarily THE solution that will be implemented for flight • The point estimate is described by the IDL in the MEL in terms of Current Best Estimate (CBE) of mass and materials, and represents a single estimate among a range of feasible possibilities • Cost risk analysis attempts to address the risk that the eventual outcome of the parameters may differ from the CBE selections made at the conceptual design phase of pre-formulation • Cost risk capabilities within the parametric cost modeling tool allow a range of input values to be entered to generate a range of cost outcomes • Cost risk simulation is performed using well known sampling techniques (e.g. Monte Carlo simulation) of the parameter ranges resulting in a Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of possible outcomes, also known as a Density Curve • PDF can also be represented as a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF), also known as an S-Curve to provide a graphical representation of the possibilities of various cost outcomes • Cost risk analysis takes additional labor and is beyond a 1-week IDL study, and is not recommended for the initial instrument conceptual design, but will be necessary for proposal development

  16. Cost Confidence Level Selected Slide, Definition of Confidence Level (CL), from “NASA Cost Risk Workshop at GSFC”.

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