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Overview of UK Public Finances: Current Receipts and Fiscal Forecasts

This outline reviews key aspects of the UK's public finances, focusing on current receipts and fiscal forecasts. It highlights the short-term revised forecast moving down while the medium-term levels remain unchanged. Current spending forecasts are stable for the short term but slightly higher for the medium term. The Chancellor's golden rule, which mandates borrowing only for investment, is projected to be met. Additionally, the analysis includes non-discretionary changes and potential impacts on NHS trust classifications, providing a comprehensive view of fiscal health and projected surpluses.

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Overview of UK Public Finances: Current Receipts and Fiscal Forecasts

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Presentation Transcript

  1. The public finances Christine Frayne

  2. Outline • Current receipts • Short term forecast revised down • Medium term level unchanged • Current spending • Short term forecast unchanged • Medium term slightly higher • Golden rule • Treasury expects to be met • Small margin of error

  3. New measures £ million

  4. New measures £ million

  5. New measures £ million

  6. Non-discretionary changes Note: Excludes change in classification of NHS trusts

  7. Non-discretionary changes Note: Excludes change in classification of NHS trusts

  8. Non-discretionary changes Note: Excludes change in classification of NHS trusts

  9. Non-discretionary changes Note: Excludes change in classification of NHS trusts

  10. Revenue projections Source: HM Treasury

  11. Receipts bouncing back? Growth in net taxes and social security contributions in 2004–05 Source: HM Treasury

  12. Spending projections Source: HM Treasury

  13. Current spending growth slowing? Growth in central government current spending, (including depreciation) in 2004–05 Source: HM Treasury

  14. The Chancellor’s fiscal rules • Golden rule: only borrow to invest • Receipts cover current spending • Surplus or balance on current budget • Judged over the economic cycle • Sustainable investment rule: debt at a ‘stable and prudent’ level, <40% of national income

  15. Current budget surpluses Source: HM Treasury

  16. Current economic cycle Current budget surpluses Source: HM Treasury

  17. Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income

  18. Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income £124bn £98bn £45bn £8bn £5bn

  19. Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income £5bn

  20. Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income £5bn £8bn

  21. Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income £5bn £8bn –£6bn

  22. Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income £5bn £8bn –£6bn –£2bn

  23. Meeting the golden rule? (2) Cyclically adjusted current budget surplus, as a share of national income Source: HM Treasury

  24. Meeting the golden rule? (2) Cyclically adjusted current budget surplus, as a share of national income Source: HM Treasury

  25. Current cycle Meeting the golden rule? (2) Cyclically adjusted current budget surplus, as a share of national income Source: HM Treasury

  26. Meeting the golden rule? (2) Cyclically adjusted current budget surplus, as a share of national income Next cycle Source: HM Treasury

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