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New York State’s Labor Force Drivers

New York State’s Labor Force Drivers. Presented by Kevin Jack Statewide Labor Market Analyst

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New York State’s Labor Force Drivers

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  1. New York State’s Labor Force Drivers Presented by Kevin Jack Statewide Labor Market Analyst NYATEP Economic Development Conference Albany, New York March 22, 2006

  2. “The future ain’t what it used to be.” Introduction “You can observe a lot by just watching.” N O T E D E C O N O M I C S P R O G N O S T I G A T O R

  3. Presentation Outline • Introduction • Labor Force Drivers: • Summary and Conclusions • Aging Population • Slowing Population Growth • Increasing Diversity • Increasing Skill Requirements • Globalization

  4. Labor Force Drivers:Aging Population U.S. Life Expectancy at Birth: 1850-2000 Age Year Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics

  5. Labor Force Drivers:Aging Population Health Care Spending, U.S., 2005-2015 Within a decade, an aging America will spend one of every five dollars on health care. Total health care spending in the U.S. will double to more than $4 trillion by 2015. Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services

  6. Labor Force Drivers:Aging Population Total Population (in millions) by Age Group, New York State, 1970, 2000 and 2030 Percent 65+ 18.24 mn 10.7% 18.98 mn 12.9% 18.3% 20.11 mn Millions The NYS population aged 65 and over has grown significantly, both in absolute and relative terms. The trend is projected to continue. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research

  7. Labor Force Drivers:Aging Population Projected Change in Working Age Population (Ages 16 to 64), New York State, 2005 - 2020 Change Age Group Over the next 15 years, New York’s working age population is expected to grow only by 40,000, with the largest growth among those aged 55-64. The State’s core working-age population (ages 35-54) is projected to decline by more than 600,000. Source: Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research

  8. Labor Force Drivers:Aging Population Labor Force Participation Rates, by Age, New York State, 2003-2005 Labor force participation rates drop significantly after age 55. Source: Current Population Survey

  9. Labor Force Drivers:Slowing Population Growth New York State Population, 1940-2020 Annual Rates of Change Projected The rate of growth of New York’s population has slowed considerably in the past half century.

  10. Labor Force Drivers:Slowing Population Growth Projected Change in Working Age Population (Ages 16 to 64), Upstate and Downstate New York, 2005 - 2020 Change Age Group Over the next 15 years, Upstate’s working age population is expected to decrease by 245,000 or 5%. In contrast, Downstate is expected to increase by 285,000 or 3%. Source: Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research

  11. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Diversity Total Population, by Nativity, New York State, 1970-2000 Percent Foreign-born 18.24 mn 11.6% 17.56 mn 13.6% 17.99 mn 15.9% 18.98 mn 20.4% Millions Between 1970 and 2000, the percentage of New York State’s population that was foreign born almost doubled.

  12. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Diversity Total Population, by Nativity,New York City, 1970–2000 Percent Foreign-born 18.2 7.90 mn 6.46 1.44 23.6 5.40 1.67 7.07 mn 28.4 7.32 mn 2.08 5.24 8.01 mn 5.14 2.87 35.9 Millions New York City accounted for most of the State’s increase in Foreign-born population between 1970 and 2000. Source: New York City Department of Planning

  13. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Diversity Foreign-born Population by Country of Birth,New York City, 1990 and 2000 2000 1990 Rank – 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 17 Number 2,082,931 225,017 160,399 116,128 76,150 32,689 60,451 71,892 56,478 65,731 * 98,868 8,695 Number 2,871,032 369,186 261,551 178,922 130,647 122,550 114,944 95,580 88,794 84,404 81,408 72,481 42,865 Rank – 1 2 3 6 17 10 7 12 8 * 4 42 • Total, Foreign-born • Dominican Republic • China • Jamaica • Guyana • Mexico • Ecuador • Haiti • Trinidad & Tobago • Colombia • Russia • Italy • Bangladesh * The USSR was ranked 5th in 1990 with 80,815 residents. If it were a single entity in 2000, it would have ranked 4th with approximately 164,000 persons. Source: New York City Department of Planning

  14. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Diversity New York State’s Labor Force, 1993 and 2005 Labor Force Participation Rate (%) Population, 16+ (1000s) % Change in Labor Force 1993 2005 1993 2005 1993-2005 13,823.4 11,145.2 2,101.8 1,480.5 61.6 62.3 57.3 54.4 62.9 63.5 60.6 61.3 All Races 14,948.9 11,211.6 2,429.0 2,115.3 10.3% 2.5% 22.1% 61.1% White Black Hispanic Note: Hispanics can be of any race. A combination of increased population aged 16+ and increased labor force participation resulted in dramatic growth in the number of Hispanics in New York State's labor force between 1993 and 2005. Source: Current Population Survey

  15. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Diversity New York State’s population and labor force are becoming increasingly diverse. • Approximately 20 percent of the State’s population was born outside of the U.S. with about 40 percent of these immigrants arriving since 1990. Most are in the NYC area. • Of the population five years and older, nearly 5 million people, or 28 percent, spoke a language other than English at home in 2000. In 1990, the proportion was 21 percent. • Persons who do not speak English at home are concentrated in NYC, where 47.6 percent spoke a language other than English in 2000, up from 41 percent in 1990.

  16. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Overview of Skill Levels of the U.S. Labor Force • Workers need to continually upgrade their skills if they are to adapt to and take part in a continually changing economy. • Education is a key contributor to economic growth and individual income. • Advances in education levels have slowed over the past 25 years. This slowdown could jeopardize the U.S. standard of living in years to come. • The science and engineering sectors of the U.S. economy remain particular concerns.

  17. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Educational Attainment by Race, Ethnicity, and Gender, U.S., 2004 Share with high school degree or higher Share with bachelor’s degree or higher Total 87 93 88 62 96 85 88 29 35 17 11 61 26 31 Non-Hispanic White Black Hispanic Asian Men Women Note: Data refer to non-institutionalized population aged 25-29 Women tend to be more educated than men, while educational attainment differs widely by race and ethnicity. Source: 2006 Economic Report of the President

  18. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Educational Attainment by Age, U.S. 1947-2004 Schooling levels are no longer rising as quickly as in the 1950s and 1960s among people aged 25-29. Source: 2006 Economic Report of the President

  19. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Average Annual Earnings by Education (2004 dollars), U.S. 1975 1990 2000 2004 Bachelor’s degree only $39,065 $24,845 $14,220 57% $43,591 $24,968 $18,623 75% $54,396 $28,179 $26,217 93% $51,568 $28,631 $22,937 80% High school degree only $ difference % difference Note: Data refer to all workers aged 18 and older. People with higher levels of education have higher earnings than people with less education. These differences have grown over the past 30 years. Source: 2006 Economic Report of the President

  20. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Median Annual Earnings, by Education, Full-time Workers Aged 25-64, New York State, 2004 Source: Current Population Survey

  21. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Percentage Change in Projected Employment, by Education and Training Level, New York State, 2002 - 2012 Source: New York State Department of Labor

  22. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Outline of New Occupational Prospects Table on NYSDOL Web Page Descriptors Total Annual Openings Categories Growth Rate Categories Fast Favorable Very Favorable Very Favorable Average Less Favorable Favorable Very Favorable Negative Least Favorable Least Favorable Favorable Slow Less Favorable Less Favorable Favorable Small Medium Large

  23. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Occupations Requiring Either a Master’s, Doctoral, or First Professional Degree, New York State, 2002-2012 Fastest Growing* Percentage Growth Mental Health & Substance Abuse Social Workers 30.0% Physical Therapists 27.0% Rehabilitation Counselors 24.8% Speech-Language Pathologists 18.0% Pharmacists 17.3% Most Annual Openings Openings/Year Lawyers 1,950 Market Research Analysts 660 Clergy 500 Pharmacists 480 Rehabilitation Counselors 440 *Among occupations with at least 5,000 workers. Source: New York State Department of Labor

  24. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Occupations Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree, New York State, 2002-2012 Fastest Growing Occupations Percentage Growth Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts 40.0% Physician Assistants 39.6% Personal Financial Advisors 32.7% Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 31.9% Database Administrators 31.2% Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year Elementary School Teachers, Ex. Special Ed. 4,170 Secondary School Teachers, Ex. Special & Vocational Ed. 3,940 Accountants and Auditors 2,780 Middle School Teachers, Ex. Special and Vocational Ed. 1,640 Computer Systems Analysts 1,130 Source: New York State Department of Labor

  25. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Occupations Requiring an Associate Degree, New York State, 2002-2012 Percentage Growth Fastest Growing Occupations Medical Records and Health Info.Technicians 35.6% Physical Therapist Assistants 34.6% Dental Hygienists 29.9% Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 28.1% Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 27.6% Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year Registered Nurses 6,910 Computer Support Specialists 880 Paralegals and Legal Assistants 490 Radiologic Technologists and Technicians 380 Dental Hygienists 350 Source: New York State Department of Labor

  26. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Occupations Requiring Either Postsecondary Training, Experience in a Related Occupation, or Long-term On-the-Job Training, New York State, 2002-2012 Fastest Growing Occupations* Percentage Growth Fitness Trainers & Aerobics Instructors 30.8% Electricians 29.3% Heating, AC, & Refridge. Mechanics & Installers 26.2% EMTs and Paramedics 24.1% Plumbers, Pipefitters, & Steamfitters 23.5% Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year First-Line Supervs./Mngrs. of Office & Admin. Supp. Workers 2,670 First-Line Supervs./Mngrs. of Retail Sales Workers 2,630 Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 2,200 Carpenters 2,080 Electricians 1,910 *Among occupations with at least 5,000 workers. Source: New York State Department of Labor

  27. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Occupations Requiring Either Short- or Moderate-term On-the-Job Training, New York State, 2002-2012 Fastest Growing Occupations Percentage Growth Medical Assistants 44.9% Physical Therapist Aides 38.4% Hazardous Materials Removal Workers 35.2% Personal and Home Care Aides 34.0% Social and Human Service Assistants 33.2% Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year Cashiers 11,300 Retail Salespersons 10,910 Waiters and Waitresses 8,070 Office Clerks, General 5,790 Janitors and Cleaners, Ex. Maids and Housekeepers 5,290 *Among occupations with at least 2,500 workers. Source: New York State Department of Labor

  28. Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Science and Engineering Occupations, New York State, 2003 • In 2003, New York State had 272,440 individuals in science and engineering occupations. • Science and engineering occupations accounted for 3.13 percent of the state’s workforce in 2003, which was below the comparable nation figure (3.61 percent). • This ranked New York 30th out of the 50 states. Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006

  29. Science and Engineering Labor Force Drivers:Increasing Skill Requirements Science and Engineering Degrees as Share of Higher Education Degrees, New York, 1993, 1998, and 2003 Number of higher education degrees (1000s) Science and engineering’s share of all higher education degrees conferred in New York fell from 29.7% in 1993 to 28.9% in 2003. In 2003, the U.S. average was 29.7%, and New York ranked 26th out of 50 states. Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006

  30. Labor Force Drivers:Globalization Rankings of Selected Advanced Countries by Average Score on International Tests Last year of secondary school Age 13 Age 15 Age 9 Math Math Science Math Science Math Science Science Hong Kong Japan Netherlands USA Italy Australia New Zealand Norway Netherlands Sweden Norway France New Zealand Australia Canada Germany Italy USA Japan Hong Kong USA Netherlands Australia New Zealand Italy Norway Hong Kong Japan Netherlands Australia USA Sweden New Zealand Italy Norway Hong Kong Japan Netherlands USA Australia Sweden New Zealand Norway Italy Hong Kong Netherlands Japan Canada Australia New Zealand France Sweden Germany Norway USA Italy Sweden Netherlands Norway Canada New Zealand Australia Germany France USA Italy Japan Hong Kong Australia Netherlands New Zealand Canada France Sweden Germany USA Italy Norway Compared to other advanced countries, at ages 9 and 13, students generally place above the middle on standardized math and science tests. By the last year of secondary school, U.S. students place near the bottom. Source: National Center for Education Statistics

  31. Labor Force Drivers:Globalization Percentage Change in First University Degrees Awarded in Engineering and Physical/Biological Sciences, 1987 - 2002 Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006

  32. Labor Force Drivers:Globalization First University Degrees Awarded in Engineering and Physical/Biological Sciences and Share of Total Degrees Awarded, 2002 Share of Degrees 49.5% 10.8% 22.5% 25.5% 32.4% Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006

  33. Labor Force Drivers:Globalization Share of Foreign-born Scientists and Engineers in U.S. Occupations, by degree level, 1990 and 2000 Immigrants are over-represented among scientists and engineers in the U.S. Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006

  34. Labor Force Drivers:Globalization Origin of Foreigners Earning U.S. Science & Engineering Doctorates: 1983–2003 Asian countries account for more than two-thirds of all science and engineering doctorates awarded to foreigners in the U.S. between 1983 and 2003. Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006

  35. Summary and Conclusions The following economic and demographic forces are likely to shape New York State’s labor force in the coming years: • New York, like most states, has experienced an aging population due to the graying of the baby boomers and the slowing of overall population growth. These trends are projected to continue in the future, and will be especially pronounced in the Upstate New York region. • International immigration has dramatically increased the racial and ethnic diversity of New York State’s population, especially in the New York City area. It is projected to continue as an important source of population growth.

  36. Summary and Conclusions (continued) • Workers with more post-secondary education continue to earn, on average, higher salaries. • Occupational projections forecast that jobs that require at least some college education will be growing fastest. • Skill requirements for workers continue to rise. The science and engineering fields are of particular concern, especially with increasing global competition.

  37. New York State’s Labor Force Drivers Presented by Kevin Jack Statewide Labor Market Analyst Phone: (518) 457-3616 e-mail: kevin.jack@labor.state.ny.us

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