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Grain Outlook & Marketing Considerations

Grain Outlook & Marketing Considerations. Northwest Iowa Farm Business Association Annual Meeting Sheldon, Iowa March 29, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. U.S. Corn Supply and Use.

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Grain Outlook & Marketing Considerations

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  1. Grain Outlook & Marketing Considerations Northwest Iowa Farm Business Association Annual Meeting Sheldon, Iowa March 29, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  4. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  5. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  6. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  7. Corn – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  9. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  10. Hog Returns vs. Corn Prices Sources: ISU Extension, Farrow-to-Finish; USDA-NASS

  11. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50%of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Dr. John Lawrence, ISU Extension

  12. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Dr. John Lawrence, ISU Extension

  13. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  14. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  15. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  16. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

  17. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  18. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  19. 2009 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  20. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  21. 2009 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  22. Corn 1990 - 2006

  23. Corn

  24. Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn Source: CBOT

  25. Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, Feb. 26, 2010

  26. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  27. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  28. Corn Futures 2010 Rev. Ins. Price $3.99 Source: CBOT, 3/16/10

  29. Soybean Futures 2010 Rev. Ins. Price $9.23 Source: CBOT, 3/16/10

  30. Pre-Harvest Strategies 56% 52% 52% 52% 72% 68% 68% 68% 72% 68% Source: Farm Futures magazine

  31. Thoughts for 2009/10 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Weakness in the dollar helps exports, but dollar may fight back • Nearby crude oil prices floating in mid $70’s and lower $80’s • But we’re seeing in long-term prices (over the last month) • Supply/demand concerns • South America: Record soybean crop and large corn crop • Weather concerns for planting • 2009/10: USDA: Corn $3.60, Soy $9.45 Futures: Corn $3.49, Soy $9.41 • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $3.60, Soy $8.80 Futures: Corn $3.70, Soy $8.86

  32. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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