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Climate Change and its impact on agricultural water requirements

Climate Change and its impact on agricultural water requirements in the countries of former Yugoslavia. Presented by : Mladen Todorovi ć (CIHEAM-IAMB, IT). With the contribution of: Lazar Tanasijević (CIHEAM-IAMB, IT) Piero Lionello (CMCC, IT) Claudia Pizzigalli (CMCC, IT)

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Climate Change and its impact on agricultural water requirements

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  1. Climate Change and its impact on agricultural water requirements in the countries of former Yugoslavia Presented by:Mladen Todorović (CIHEAM-IAMB, IT) With the contribution of: Lazar Tanasijević (CIHEAM-IAMB, IT) Piero Lionello (CMCC, IT) Claudia Pizzigalli (CMCC, IT) Luis Santos Pereira (Technical Univ. Lisbon, PT) Ohrid (Macedonia), May 29th 2012

  2. Annual Annual Overall view on changes in seasonal temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) Source: WASSERMed project (EC-FP7-ENV)

  3. AGRICULTURE 2000 vs 2050 (IRR, WP) Crop suitability zones (AEZ temperature approach) CLIMATE baseline CLIMATE future CROP data Starting of growing season ETo baseline ETo future LGP (%) L1, L2, L3, L4 GDD (heat units) IRR baseline IRR future GDD L1, L2, L3, L4 ETc baseline ETc future MGM MGM LGP baseline L1, L2, L3, L4 LGP future L1, L2, L3, L4 Kc baseline Kc future

  4. 2000 2050 2050-2000 Changes in reference evapotranspiration [mm/year] 2050 vs. 2000 (using FAO-PM)

  5. 2000 2050 Source: Moriondo et al., 2008 Suitability for Olives cropping Red = Non suitable for growing olives; Yellow = Suboptimal condition for growing olives; Green = Optimal condition for growing olives; * Percent of total surface area of the country

  6. 2000 2050-2000 2050 Olives’ ET (mm/season)

  7. 2050-2000 2050 Olives’ NIR (mm/season) 2000

  8. Maize Wheat Sunflower Tomato Length of growing period of annual crops 2050-2000 (days)

  9. Maize Wheat Tomato Sunflower Changes of crop evapotranspiration 2050-2000 (mm/season)

  10. Maize Wheat Sunflower Tomato Changes in net irrigation requirements 2050-2000 (mm/season)

  11. In the period 2000-2050, for the Mediterranean it could be expected : An overall increase of air temperature 0.84 ÷ 2.31°C An overall variation of precipitation -208 to +144 mm/year ETomay increase over the whole Mediterranean up to 183 mm/year and in average of 92 mm/year (6.7%) In the countries of former YU: Average T could increase from 1.3°C in SLO to 1.7°C in FYROM Precipitation would likely decrease from 30-40 mm/year in B&H and SER to about 80 mm/year in MN and FYROM; Precipitation would remain at the same level as nowadays in CRO whereas in SLO is expected an increase of about 10 mm/year ETo could increase from 35 mm/year in SLO to 84 mm/year in FYROM Synthesis of main findings

  12. Synthesis of main findings for former YU • by year 2050 … • a shifting (anticipation) and shortening of crop growing cycle for most crops; extension of areas suitable for olives growing. • Winter wheat: CWR could remain the same as they are today in MN and it could decrease from 8%, in FYROM and SLO, to 13% in CRO. IRR could decrease by 2% in MN and from 14%, in FYROM, to 33% in CRO. • Maize: CWR could be reduced from 1% in MN to 5% in SLO whereas IRR could diminish from 2%, in FYROM and SER, to 6% in SLO. • Tomato: CWR could decrease from 2% in B&H to 6% in CRO and SLO, whereas IRR could be reduced from 1% in SER to 7% in SLO. • Sunflower: CWR could likely decrease from 1% in MN to 5% in FYROM and SER; IRR could a) remain at the actual level in B&H and MN, b) decrease by 1, 2 and 8% in CRO, FYROM and SLO, respectively, and c) increase by 3% in SER.

  13. Conclusions The results of the simulations are in agreement with other studies. (Ferreres and Villalobos, 2004; Rodriguez-Diaz et al., 2007; Yano et al., 2007; Topcu et al., 2008; Lovelli et al., 2010; Rodriguez-Diaz and Topcu, 2010; Moriondo et al., 2011). An overall decrease of ETc and NIR could be expected for most crops (except olive trees) due to decrease of growing season. Air temperature increase could have a dominant role on the shortening of the crop growing cycle rather than on the increase of CWR The impact of precipitation decrease could be more important for the perennial and winter crops

  14. Conclusions • Main limitations • an overall assumption of a common cultivar • the assumption of pristine cropping conditions. • Uncertainties • the adopted SRES scenario, GCM, downscaling … • the expected advances of crop breeding and plant genetics (new varieties) • the technological advances in land and water management • Future studies (in progress) • changes in water availability for agriculture • soil consideration (soil water balance) • impact of irrigation methods (i.e. efficiency) and water supply • more detailed elaboration of the crop growing parameters (i.e. Kc, Ky) • adaptation measures.

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