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NADA Press Conference February 5, 2011

NADA Press Conference February 5, 2011. Rental: Stability Ahead. New vehicle sales into rental stabilizing at “new normal”. Shift from program cars to risk units is completed. Increased service life for risk units has leveled off.

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NADA Press Conference February 5, 2011

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  1. NADA Press Conference February 5, 2011

  2. Rental: Stability Ahead • New vehicle sales into rental stabilizing at “new normal”. • Shift from program cars to risk units is completed. • Increased service life for risk units has leveled off. • Off-rental prices will show stability at current high base.

  3. New Vehicle Sales Into Rental &Rental Fleet Size Source: Bobit Business Media

  4. Distribution of New Vehicle Sales into Rental - Program versus Risk Source: Bobit Business Media & Manheim Consulting

  5. Average Mileage – Rental Risk Units Source: Manheim Consulting

  6. Average Auction Price – Rental Risk Units Source: Manheim Consulting

  7. Lease Originations - Millions of Units Source: Manheim Consulting Leasing:Growth in Originations & Satisfaction

  8. Lease Penetration Ratesby Manufacturer Source: J.D. Power and Associates

  9. Off-Lease Volumes – Another Down Cycle Ahead Source: Manheim Consulting

  10. Number of Repossessions - Millions of Units Source: Manheim Consulting Repossessions:Lower Volumes & Older Units

  11. New Vehicle Sales into Commercial and Government Fleets Source: Bobit Business Media Commercial and Government Fleets:Higher Volumes & Strong Prices

  12. Average Auction Price –Midsize Fleet Cars Source: Manheim Consulting

  13. Dealer Consigned Vehicles Sold at NAAA Member Auctions Source: 1999-2009 NAAA Surveys, 20010-2015 Manheim Consulting estimate Dealer Consignment:Steady Growth Ahead

  14. New Car & Light-Duty Truck Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - 3-Month Moving Average Source: Automotive News

  15. New Vehicle Sales New Car & Light-Duty Truck Sales millions of units Peak-to-troughs: 1973 to 1975 -24% 1978 to 1982 -33% 1986 to 1991 -23% 2000 to 2009 -41% Source: Automotive News

  16. Used Vehicle Retail Sales Source: CNW Marketing Research

  17. Ratio of Used Vehicles Retailedto New Vehicles Retailed Source: Automotive News & CNW Marketing Research

  18. Monthly Change In Nonfarm Payrolls3-month moving average – in thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index January 1995 = 100 Source: Manheim Consulting

  20. Outlook and Implications • New vehicle sales • A lower underlying trend • Movements around that trend driven by labor market and credit conditions • Manufacturers maintain inventory and pricing discipline • Retail sales and profits continue to shift in favor of used vehicles • Less supply and stable demand means strong used vehicle pricing • Economic recovery may surprise to the upside in the near-term, but we will fail to achieve previous peaks in employment, household net worth, and new vehicle sales prior to the next recession.

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