Face the Future

1. Face the Future “The only relevant discussions about the future are those where we succeed in shifting the question from whether something will happen to what would we do if it did happen.” Arie de Geus, Principal in Royal Dutch Shell Group PlanningArchitect of Energy Futures Scenarios

2. 30 Years Ago – 1988……. • USSR, Cold War, Berlin Wall still dominant in east-west global affairs • DARPA Net – NSF; no search engines • Personal Computers - DOS, MacSE • Magnetic Resonance in R&D • Initial concerns re global warming • Human Genome Project envisioned • New books & new words: nano; cyber; digital • Oil prices $ 10-20 bbl • First analog cell phones

3. What is Foresight? A set of strategic tools that support government and industry decisions with adequate lead time for societal preparation and strategic response. Key Attributes • Anticipates multiple, plausible futures – i.e. neither prediction nor forecasting of probabilities • 5 – 25 year time horizon- usual is 10-15 • A rehearsal for potential but contingent futures • Accommodates uncertainty & diversity; & thrives on collaboration, shared insights; • Highlights emerging opportunities & threats

4. European Foresight Definitions European Commission FORESIGHT is a participative approach to creating shared long-term visions to inform short-term decision-making processes. http://www.foresight-network.eu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13&Itemid=52 ForeLearn Future oriented thinking is vital for any forward planning or policy activity to be able to meet future challenges proactively. Foresight enhances such thinking by gathering anticipatory intelligence from a wide range of knowledge sources in a systematic way and linking it to today's decision making.

5. 1 nm Foresight Helps Decision-makers By.. • Revealing prospective new issues, challenges-threats, stakeholders, or shifts in alignments of influential players; • Identifying needs for new skills, knowledge and capabilities; • Highlighting new, weak signals that can become pivotal in the future, and potentially disruptive surprises, technologies; • Demonstrating current regulatory weaknesses – zones where failure to prepare can bring severe consequences; • Can be used to determine S&T, R&D priorities, strategic technology investment domains and critical sectors; • Exposing the limits of current policies, gaps that should be filled; • Delivering intelligence on emerging business and market opportunities, new foreign strengths and players; • Providing alerts about threats, complex situations and organizational vulnerabilities – allowing time to adapt

6. Manchester Foresight Framework

7. Top 10 Foresight Tools • Environmental Scanning • Delphi Probing • Scenario Planning • Technology – Innovation Mapping • Technology Road-Mapping • Expert Technical Panels • Web Virtual Conferences • FOR-CI-BA: Combining Foresight & Competitive Technical Intelligence & Business Analytics • Computerized Modelling and Dynamic Simulation • Integral Systemic Futures

8. Wildcard Scenario X Today Scenario A Robust Strategies and Breakthrough Actions Area of Plausible Futures Scenario B Scenario C Wildcard Scenario Y How do we mobilize, inspire and align our talents and assets to create the envisaged opportunities and realize the innovations necessary? Today Tomorrow Identifying Robust Strategies

9. Environmental Scan: STEEP Map

10. Foresight Trends Discernible gradual patterns that are slowly but pervasively causing change e.g. population aging; decline in state sovereignty; complexity of military options; new world-order: politico-military alliances; Islam-West cultural gaps; space and cyber conflicts; more nuclear equipped nations; more humanitarian demands; inter-state migration; failing states proliferation; shift to digital technology. These are the broad forces behind change, Most stakeholders are relatively powerless to affect the trend so trends tend to endure as influential shapers for at least 3 – 5 years until succeeded by others.

11. Macro Shaping Trends For each – describe two-three implications for change in your world • Demographic, wealth shifts in West & world, BRICs-NICs – after boomers; • Ambient Intelligence & Internet of Things – toward the Singularity • Global Anxiety – from Global Warming-Climate Change to Terrorism • Miniaturization , Automation (Robotics) of Hardware , Machines • Socialization of Peer-to-Peer Power in Software Networks • Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-Environment • Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability; politics ? • De-Carbonization & Efficiency of Energy & Substitution of Renewables • Harmonization - Standardization for Trade + Retreat into Protectionism • Convergence of Info-Nano-Bio-Cogno Science • Intensification, Differentiation, of Wealth • Transformation of Infrastructure Systems • Acceleration of Knowledge Economy • Proliferation of Surveillance - Security • Urbanization-Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations • Virtualization, Digitization & Integrationof: Business-Professions, Production, Communications, Entertainment, Education

12. Foresight Critical Drivers Factors and uncertainties that create or drive change - that may be adapted by or strongly impact stakeholders, sometimes rapidly e.g. dynamics pushing global society and security; political geometry; climate policies and resource practices; major S&T developments and their societal impacts; new international agreements and strategic S&T investments; new versions of enabling technologies and significant S&T breakthroughs. These are areas that change from year to year and may be amenable to stakeholder actions and strategic choices by way of investments, new alignments, infrastructure, R&D, innovations.

13. Shocks & Wild Cards High impact, low probability events and situations that alter the fundamentals, create new infrastructure demands and usually shift societal priorities. e.g. Gulf Stream shift; nuclear bomb; fusion power; major earthquakes-tsunamis, infectious global pandemic; fertility decline; cyber collapse; human ageing breakthrough; solar flare, asteroid impacts; financial collapse; sustained deflation; autonomous computers These are the unpredictable but life altering events and situations that create new challenges and opportunities that most stakeholders have not considered orprepared for.

14. Categories of trends Conflict Demographics Economy Energy & Environment Culture/Identity = Science & Technology = Global Futures Forum Shocks • Relative impact and likelihood out to 15 years 2 3 4 5 High Nuclear event Loss of U.S. control of the commons Pandemic Large scale cyber attack 4 Security / Defense Implication Disruption of oil infrastructure Loss of confidence In DoD capabilities Collapse of strategic state 3 Medium High Medium Probability Source; US Dept of Defence

15. Global Demographics • 2011: 7.0B ++++ • 2050: 9.2B OR ???? • Declining birth rates in west and newly industrialized world; • Zero population growth birth rates in North America; less in some European nations • Age extension, more centurions • urban dwellers out number rural dwellers

16. Environmental Crises • Warnings of a global fisheries collapse (by 2050) of all species if fishing continues at its current pace.” – Achim Steiner U.N. Environment Program 2006; • Ground-based astronomy may become impossible by 2050 because of pollution and climate change.” – Prof. Gerry Gilmore 2006; • World wide, forests will continue to shrink at a rate of 1 soccer pitch every 2 seconds • Polar ice cap appears to be melting at a rate of Lake Superior/year

17. Shifts in Environmental Determinants • Hydrogen production from algae-bacteria; solar PV; • Conflicts over water and emerging nano filtration • Nuclear power or oil FOR power • Global environmental • management corporations • Arable land becomes salty, while progress is made on saline farming

18. Global Disease • Key Challenges: • Water, Alzheimer’s , Obesity Effects • HIV/AIDS; climate impacts and habitat displacements • Virus cross-over • Bio-terror agents are zoonotic • Since 1985, 38 new human pathogens have emerged • 1,400 pathogens cause human disease

19. Big Challenges: Next 50 Years • Cybersphere: information beams, portable tele-connection & ubiquitous smart networks; • Artificial intelligence – autonomous vehicles and the internet of things; anticipating the Singularity – when autonomous computing can self-manage complexity; • Bio-engineering & bio-robotics, astro-biology, personal genomics & embryo simulation, artificial life models; • Quantum math & computing, teleportation, computational and emergent complexity; • Search for ETI and biophilic universes; • Neuro-sentience& convergent cognition, computational pharmacology,neuro-regeneration • Sub-terranean thermophilogy & Triphibious flexible transport • Nano-structural products, sensors, materials, fabrication and molecular tailoring

20. Global Foresight Sources

21. Foresight Development Process Define Project Topic Review Current Situation Identify Key Lenses Answer Challenge Questions Populate Each Scenario Identify Change Drivers Backcast to Present Select Critical Drivers Synthesis & Recommendations Identify Scenarios

22. Foresight To Strategy Process Foresight Insights & Learning Review Backcast for Leverage Points Identify Strategic Goals, Problems Address Challenge Questions, e.g why us? Engage Stakeholders Prospective Roles & Solutions Make Choices, Commit to Actions Formulate Robust Strategies ( How) Success & Performance Measures Revisit Strategies, Goals

23. Benefits of Collaboration • Reveal intelligence and knowledge gaps • Build alliances to leverage capabilities • Leverage complimentary competencies • Scope impact horizons and anticipate disruptive technologies • Anticipate ongoing Program Review • Identify new clients and industry partners • Plan for S&T capacity adjustments

24. Three Horizons For-e Seeing Contingent Future Pathways deeper, further and broader - technically, socially, ecologically and strategically; THREE HORIZONS METHODOLOGY Three Horizons is an established technique to organizing how we approach and deal with uncertainty. It first guides us how to position our organizations in the tides of change, and then enables us, in a structured manner, to think about what could be possible at the edge of a determined future time (third) horizon. Because it is premised upon leaping over the second and into the third horizon from the first, it is designed to give substance to our aspirations, and then move back into the second horizon, where we are encouraged to think in a forward, positive way, and to consider practical means and opportunities i.e. pathways that allow us to take steps in the context of prevailing uncertainty and risk.

25. Horizon 1. 2013-2015 Horizon 1 is the space of the imminent future - already somewhat determined by our present readiness, resource commitments and institutional capacities to make adjustments etc. It extends from tomorrow to at least two years ahead, but not usually more than five years. Many organizations see the first Horizon as a place to seed new capacities, test strategies and identify present barriers or articulate problems which need to be resolved to be able to move to the next horizons.

26. Horizon 3 2020-2025 Horizon 3 is the world of what if…what could be… and how we might recognize and realize opportunities. It is where powerful and compelling visions are described so they can enable leaders to break the inertia and fear of change that pervades most organizations. By enabling many stakeholders to collaborate on shaping the inputs to the third Horizon, the process has already begun to proactively build the future of any organization versus being reactive or "missing the boat" as a familiar popular phrase suggests.

27. Horizon 2. 2016-2019 Horizon 2 is the space where change is fully engaged and one's assets are actively shifting to be able to realize opportunities and to adjust to new pressures. Here it is desirable and usually possible to both forecast by examining the implications of trends and drivers of change; and backcast by rigorously asking what would have been required to create the conditions for the aspirations and vision of Horizon 3 to be realized

28. 7 Scenario Purposes • Tracking emergence & prospective impacts of influential trends & technologies • Informing R&D planners, policy makers • Engaging, coalescing strategic thinking • Elucidation of unseen connections, new insights • Evaluating & comparing a range of scenarios to assess robustness of technologies • Facilitating long term R&D and strategic investments • Imagining future knowledge & skills needs, job shifts

29. Scenario Planning Rigorous Approach For • Managing uncertainties surrounding investment choices • Exploring alternative environments, multiple futures • Focusing on plausible rather than predicted outcomes • Identifying robust problem-solving, adaptive strategies • testing which will work “No Matter How The Future Unfolds”: readiness what if and how would we …… Typically Chosen When • Ambiguity in the operating environment is high • Pace of change and degree of turmoil is accelerating • Planning horizon stretches out to 10 years or more • Stakeholders are able to manage complex, contingent situations and formulate strategies • These strategies are aimed at preparedness and identifying opportunity within the accepted uncertainty represented by the divergence of the scenarios

30. Stories With Implications Rich context, relevant to stakeholders Provocative diversity = real alternatives Relate to perceived needs & opportunities Designate some edges – choices, boundaries Consider also the opposites - + and - Critical Parameters 4-7 is best, > 10 confuses + Plots are useful when transparent, Scenarios should be consistently structured, concise Focus is to engage key stakeholders Engage in: what if rather than whether things will occur Challenges-evidence tests may be useful between scenarios Evocative names help recognition & thematic links Scenario Basics

31. SCENARIOS: 7 KEY POINTS Stories that we can relate to – about learning, preparedness Openness and opening minds Vehicle for strategy Stakeholder participation - diversity of views, directed towards collaboration and creating consensus Not just about the future - multiple applications / purposes Multiple ways to frame or structure Ambiguity, uncertainty

32. Foresight Success Factors • Focus on a clearly identified client • Clear link between foresight and today’s mid term policy agenda (3-5 years) • Direct links to senior policy makers • Clear communication strategy • Integration of stakeholders in programs • Provides methodologies-skills that are not always or normally used in other departments • Academic receptor- to train and develop skills