1 / 37

Provincial Models in Gauteng, South Africa

Provincial Models in Gauteng, South Africa. Keith Bloy. Contents of Presentation. Gauteng History of PWV Consortium Results of 3 models compared to counts Some other aspects from studies. Gauteng Province. 1.4 % of land area 19.7 % of population 38 % of GDP 37 % of motor vehicles.

bikita
Télécharger la présentation

Provincial Models in Gauteng, South Africa

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Provincial Models in Gauteng,South Africa KeithBloy

  2. Contents of Presentation • Gauteng • History of PWV Consortium • Results of 3 models compared to counts • Some other aspects from studies

  3. Gauteng Province • 1.4 % of land area • 19.7 % of population • 38 % of GDP • 37 % of motor vehicles

  4. The PWV Consortium • High economic growth in 60s & 70s • TPA decided to plan a major road network • Framework required for orderly development • Local authorities planning own roads • Need to protect corridors for long-term • Cannot study single routes in isolation

  5. PWV Consortium • PWV Consortium appointed in 1973 with Mr van Niekerk as the leader • 5 Consulting engineers, 2 Town and regional planners • High growth in last 30 years has shown the wisdom of the founders of the Consortium

  6. PWV Consortium’s Models • Projective Land Use Model (PLUM) • SAPLUM used for land use projections

  7. 1975 PWV Study • 16 000 km2 • 544 zones • Planpac/Backpac • Capacity restraint assignment

  8. 1985 Update • Increased to 23 900 km2 • 589 zones • UTPS suite of programs • Equilibrium assignment

  9. Vectura Study (1991) • Greater emphasis on public transport • Originaly the same study area as 1985 • Later enlarged to 29 200 km2 and 632 zones • EMME/2 • Equilibrium assignment

  10. New Volume Delay Functions

  11. Gauteng Transportation Study • Being developed at present • Screen line counts in 2000 • Reduced study area (18 100 km2) • 828 zones

  12. GTS Study Area

  13. Gauteng Transportation Study • Screen line counts (2000) • 80 stations

  14. Comparison: Modelled vs CountsIndividual Stations

  15. Comparison: Modelled vs CountsScreen Line Sections

  16. Comparison: Modelled vs Counts • Good agreement on screen line sections (generation & distribution models good) • New volume delay functions improved R2 • Results good considering changes since 1994

  17. Comparison of Trip Distribution Using UTPS & EMME/2 • UTPS – Program GM (integer values) • EMME/2 – 3 Dimensional Balancing (real values) • Before function bint(x) • Basic Program, MATINT

  18. Example Using bint(x)

  19. Example Using bint(x)

  20. Example Using bint(x)

  21. Example Using MATINT

  22. Example Using MATINT

  23. MATINT vs bint • Admittedly a contrived example • Actual matrices: • 588 by 588 matrices • Bint: column totals out by ± 32 • MATINT: out by ± 1

  24. Comparison of Trip Distribution Using UTPS & EMME/2 • Equal time intervals of 3 minutes • Same number of trips in each interval, 10 one-minute intervals • As many one-minute intervals as possible (25) Three dimensional balancing

  25. Comparison of Trip Distribution Using UTPS & EMME/2

  26. Comparison of Trip Distribution Using UTPS & EMME/2

  27. Trip Distribution with a Difference • Old political system restricted where people could live • A single distribution resulted in inaccuracies • Several sub-area distributions based on known factors

  28. Original distribution

  29. New Distribution

  30. Calculate Costs of Congestion • Equilibrium assignment, calculate costs • Identify links with level of service E or F • Matrix capping using macro DEMADJ and volumes = 0.9 of capacity on selected links • Equilibrium assignment, identify remaining links with LOS E or F, return to (c)

  31. Calculate Costs of Congestion • Capped matrix assigned and costs calculated and subtracted from original costs: cost of congestion = US$ 870 billion per year • Remainder matrix also assigned and costs calculated using travel times from (a) and added to (a): cost of congestion = US$ 140 billion per year

  32. Travel Time Surveys

  33. Maximum Range of Average Running Speeds for Different Numbers of Runs (km/h)

  34. Acknowledgements • Gautrans • Vela VKE

More Related