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2. On uncertainty
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2. 2 A few words about science , uncertainty and quality a kernel A few words about science , uncertainty and quality a kernel
3. 3 The 1997 ozone fight, even more clearly than the 2008 rerun, was a case of a policy debate masquerading as a science debate. In such instances, scientists ought to be busy ripping off the policymakers masks, not donning them.
The 1997 ozone fight, even more clearly than the 2008 rerun, was a case of a policy debate masquerading as a science debate. In such instances, scientists ought to be busy ripping off the policymakers masks, not donning them.
4. 4 Briefly back to uncertainty at the science law-policy interface, we now move from controversy in society (on the books we all keep on our bedside table such as Diamond & Crichton) to the policy arena, where regulators, stakeholders and industry fight an all out battle. Briefly back to uncertainty at the science law-policy interface, we now move from controversy in society (on the books we all keep on our bedside table such as Diamond & Crichton) to the policy arena, where regulators, stakeholders and industry fight an all out battle.
5. 5 while increasing the opportunities for peer review by researchers independent from the regulators seemed designed while increasing the opportunities for peer review by researchers independent from the regulators seemed designed
6. 6 while increasing the opportunities for peer review by researchers independent from the regulators seemed designed while increasing the opportunities for peer review by researchers independent from the regulators seemed designed
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9. 9 much of the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and the seaboard of eastern U.S., many low lying Pacific islands, the deltas of Nile and Mekong rivers, and the coastal and riverbank much of the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and the seaboard of eastern U.S., many low lying Pacific islands, the deltas of Nile and Mekong rivers, and the coastal and riverbank
10. 10 Michael Crichtons position is that of the skeptics of the anthropogenic nature of global change and its impact.
Bjorn Lomborg school, Skeptical Environmentalist, Copenhagen Consensus project.
How can one form an opinion about whether sea levels are rising or not. Michael Crichtons position is that of the skeptics of the anthropogenic nature of global change and its impact.
Bjorn Lomborg school, Skeptical Environmentalist, Copenhagen Consensus project.
How can one form an opinion about whether sea levels are rising or not.
11. 11 Global change is typified as a typical wrong idea driven by the politico-legal-media complex (PMC).
Global change is typified as a typical wrong idea driven by the politico-legal-media complex (PMC).
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16. 16 Note: Pilkeys book has a good state of the art on the sea level rise story.
Note: Pilkeys book has a good state of the art on the sea level rise story.
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21. 21 The book is Life Itself, a Comprehensive Inquiry into the Nature, Origin, and Fabrication of Life The book is Life Itself, a Comprehensive Inquiry into the Nature, Origin, and Fabrication of Life
22. 22 The book is The revenge of the crystal 1999 - studies mostly effects of the image machine on our imaginations and systems of meaning. Maybe Crichton has read it?The book is The revenge of the crystal 1999 - studies mostly effects of the image machine on our imaginations and systems of meaning. Maybe Crichton has read it?
23. 23 Jeroen van der Sluijs (UU Copernicus Institute) has written extensively on sciences crisis of credibility of model use, following the the Netherlands media scandal of 1999 (RIVM). On present day uncertainty assessment practice: the uncertainties which are more carefully scrutinised are usually those which are the least relevant (lampposting). Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this The delusion of uncertainty (The Black Swan, 2007 Penguin). Jeroen van der Sluijs (UU Copernicus Institute) has written extensively on sciences crisis of credibility of model use, following the the Netherlands media scandal of 1999 (RIVM). On present day uncertainty assessment practice: the uncertainties which are more carefully scrutinised are usually those which are the least relevant (lampposting). Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this The delusion of uncertainty (The Black Swan, 2007 Penguin).
24. 24 When the photographer caught Silvio in this plastic pose he was telling us about the rupture of the relation between the God and the TruthWhen the photographer caught Silvio in this plastic pose he was telling us about the rupture of the relation between the God and the Truth
25. 25 Tackles quality issue in the management of uncertainty, including value-ladenness
Internal extension of peer community (involvement of other disciplines)*
External extension of peer community (involvement of stakeholders in environmental assessment & quality control)
*PNS in the UK in a situation where different disciplines and paradigms are brought together with a view to co-operation, such as in policy development, bridging boundaries is of key importance to stave off impasse. Lorenzoni et al., Futures
Tackles quality issue in the management of uncertainty, including value-ladenness
Internal extension of peer community (involvement of other disciplines)*
External extension of peer community (involvement of stakeholders in environmental assessment & quality control)
*PNS in the UK in a situation where different disciplines and paradigms are brought together with a view to co-operation, such as in policy development, bridging boundaries is of key importance to stave off impasse. Lorenzoni et al., Futures
26. 26 Tackles quality issue in the management of uncertainty, including value-ladenness
Internal extension of peer community (involvement of other disciplines)*
External extension of peer community (involvement of stakeholders in environmental assessment & quality control)
*PNS in the UK in a situation where different disciplines and paradigms are brought together with a view to co-operation, such as in policy development, bridging boundaries is of key importance to stave off impasse. Lorenzoni et al., Futures
Tackles quality issue in the management of uncertainty, including value-ladenness
Internal extension of peer community (involvement of other disciplines)*
External extension of peer community (involvement of stakeholders in environmental assessment & quality control)
*PNS in the UK in a situation where different disciplines and paradigms are brought together with a view to co-operation, such as in policy development, bridging boundaries is of key importance to stave off impasse. Lorenzoni et al., Futures
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28. 28 I must add here a short commercial advising you to buy Jerrys bookI must add here a short commercial advising you to buy Jerrys book
29. 29 Let us go back to workbench to make sense of model based inferenceLet us go back to workbench to make sense of model based inference
30. 30 Let us go back to workbench to make sense of model based inferenceLet us go back to workbench to make sense of model based inference
31. 31 Global change is typified as a typical wrong idea driven by the politico-legal-media complex (PMC). ? Bruce has something to say
<<Scientist tend to find depending on fund>>
Global change is typified as a typical wrong idea driven by the politico-legal-media complex (PMC). ? Bruce has something to say
<<Scientist tend to find depending on fund>>
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34. 34 Thanks for any additional material from US and CanadaThanks for any additional material from US and Canada
35. 35 Thanks for any additional material from US and CanadaThanks for any additional material from US and Canada
36. 36 Thanks for any additional material from US and CanadaThanks for any additional material from US and Canada
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38. 38 Thanks for any additional material from US and CanadaThanks for any additional material from US and Canada
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41. 41 Balance of power tilted Balance of power tilted
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