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Disturbance mosaics (treefall gaps, hurricanes, fires)

Disturbance mosaics (treefall gaps, hurricanes, fires). Patchy, recurrent disturbance Habitat states vary demographically Habitat states change over time Dynamics includes demographic and habitat transitions. Concepts. Structured populations Mosaic of environmental states

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Disturbance mosaics (treefall gaps, hurricanes, fires)

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  1. Disturbance mosaics (treefall gaps, hurricanes, fires) • Patchy, recurrent disturbance • Habitat states vary demographically • Habitat states change over time • Dynamics includes demographic and habitat transitions

  2. Concepts • Structured populations • Mosaic of environmental states • Each environmental state = one population projection matrix • Entire heterogeneous landscape = set of matrices

  3. Many different ways to link together... • arithmetic average • products of matrices (a fixed sequence) • Megamatrix • Stochastic sequence

  4. Megamatrix • Environment-by-stage classes • Matrix size = no. of environments x no. stages • Environmental transition matrix • Aggregates over all patches of a given environment at each time step

  5. Environment transition matrix

  6. Environmental characteristics from a matrix? • Sequence of types of environments • Temporal autocorrelation • Relative abundance of types of environments in the sequence over time reaches an equilibrium

  7. What happens here next? • Start green • 50% chance of going to Red • 50% chance of going to Blue • Start red • 50% chance of going to Green • 50% chance of staying Red • Start blue • 100% probability of going to Green

  8. Try it… • Start red.

  9. What happens here long term?

  10. Environment transition phenology census census time t t+1 late change early change

  11. Megamatrix: early change

  12. Megamatrix: late change

  13. New sensitivity questions • Environment by life history stage classification • Does the same life-history event in different environments differ in elasticity values? • Elasticities (can be summed) • By environment • By stage across all environments • By stage within environments • …

  14. What’s next? • Cumulative pop growth • Stochastic sequences • Stochastic elasticities • Age from stage

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