USI 13 JUN 2013

1. WEAPONISATION OF SPACE AND THE INDIAN SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE GP CAPT RK SINGH USI 13 JUN 2013

2. SEQUENCE OF PRESENTATION • INTRODUCTION • CHINESE CAPABILITIES IN SPACE • INDIAN VULNERABILITIES • OPTIONS FOR INDIA • INDIAN ASAT : THE NECESSITY • INDIAN ASAT : THE URGENCY • INDIAN SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE • CONCLUSION

3. POWER TRANSITION THEORY • THE POWER TRANSITION THEORY WAS PROPOUNDED BY AFK ORGANSKI IN HIS BOOK “WORLD POLITICS” PUBLISHED IN 1958 • IT IS A THEORY ABOUT THE CYCLICAL NATURE OF WAR, IN RELATION TO POWER IN THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

4. POWER TRANSITION THEORYBY AFK ORGANSKI “AN EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND MILITARY CAPABILITIES BETWEEN CONTENDING GROUPS OF STATES IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF WAR; PEACE IS PRESERVED BEST WHEN THERE IS AN IMBALANCE OF NATIONAL CAPABILITIES BETWEEN DISADVANTAGED AND ADVANTAGED NATIONS; THE AGGRESSOR WILL COME FROM A SMALL GROUP OF DISSATISFIED STRONG COUNTRIES; AND IT IS THE WEAKER, RATHER THAN THE STRONGER; POWER THAT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE THE AGGRESSOR”.

5. CHINA’S ASSERTIVE ENGAGEMENT IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER HU JINTAO PRESIDENT PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA “THE FUTURE AND DESTINY OF CONTEMPORARY CHINA IS MORE AND MORE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE FUTURE AND DESTINY OF THE WORLD. CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE DONE WITHOUT THE WORLD, AND THE WORLD’S DEVELOPMENT NEEDS CHINA.”

6. CHINA’S PEACEFUL RISE : THE IMPACT • ECONOMICALLY STRONG (MORE THAN 3 TRILLION $ FOREIGN RESERVE) • FRANTIC PACE OF MODERNISATION OF PLA • NUCLEAR POWER (WITH NO EMBARGO – NFU CLAUSE MISSING FROM WHITE PAPER 2013) • ASAT TESTS • MODERNISATION OF SUBMARINE FLEET • INDUCTION OF STEALTH AIRCRAFTS • INDUCTION OF AIRCRAFT CARRIER LIAONING • MILITARY BUILD UP IN ‘TAR’ AGAINT INDIA • SHIFTING CORE INTERESTS

7. THE SHIFTING PIVOT • THE PEACEFUL RISE OF CHINA • ECONOMIC • TECHNOLOGICAL • MILITARY • WORLD-WIDE ECONOMIC REACH • RETURN OF ‘MIDDLE KINGDOM’ SYNDROME • THE “PACIFIC PIVOT” • COUNTER-BALANCING “ PACIFIC PIVOT ” • THE RESULTANT TURBULENCE IN ASIA

8. THE TURBULENCE IN ASIA • REGION WITH INTENSE ACTIVITY • ECONOMIC • MILITARY • DIPLOMATIC • REGION WITH INTENSE COMPETITION • COMPETITION LEADING TO CONFRONTATION : CHINA’S HEGEMONY • CHINA vs JAPANMARITIME • CHINA vs VIETNAM DIAOYU/SENKAKU • CHINA vs PHILLIPINES SCARBOROUGH SHOAL • CHINA vs BRUNEI SPRATLY ISLANDS • CHINA vs MALAYSIA PARACEL ISLANDS • CHINA vs TAIWAN • CHINA VS INDIA TERRITORIAL

9. SENKAKU/DIAOYU

10. THE SHOW OF STRENGTH OVER SENKAKU / DIAOYU

11. “YOU'VE CROSSED THE BORDER, PLEASE GO BACK”

12. THE FOUR TENT STRATEGY 7

13. CHINESE PHILOSPHY OF MODERN WAR ‘WINNING BEFORE FIGHTING’ GAINING INFORMATION ADVANTAGE IN WAR THROUGH APPLICATION OF SPACE TECHNOLOGIES C4I2SR

14. “THE SPACE OF OPERATIONS BECOMES ALL-DIMENSIONAL AND MILITARY ACTION WILL BE CONDUCTED SIMULTANEOUSLY IN MANY FIELDS, ON LAND, IN THE AIR, IN OUTER SPACE AND IN THE ELECTRONIC FIELD.” General Fu Quanyou Chief of General Staff People’s Liberation Army 20 Feb 1999

15. CHINESE MILITARY CAPABILITIES IN SPACE

16. ASAT TESTS BY CHINA • ASAT TEST OF 2007 • MID COURSE INTERCEPTION TEST IN 2010 WHICH WAS RE-VALIDATION OF ASAT TEST • REUTERS REPORTED ON 13 MAY 2013 “CHINA FIRES ROCKET CAPABLE OF TARGETING SATELLITES” • ROCKET LIFTED OFF FROM THE XICHANG SATELLITE LAUNCH CENTER AND REACHED A 6,200-MILE ALTITUDE, THE HIGHEST CHINESE SUBORBITAL FLIGHT IN 37 YEARS, SAID JONATHAN MCDOWELL OF THE HARVARD-SMITHSONIAN CENTER FOR ASTROPHYSICS. • CAPABLE OF DELIVERING AN ASAT WEAPON

17. JONATHAN MCDOWELL FURTHER STATED THAT “THIS CHINESE ROCKET WAS A GROUND-BASED MISSILE THAT WE BELIEVE WOULD BE THEIR FIRST TEST OF AN INTERCEPTOR THAT WOULD BE DESIGNED TO GO AFTER A SATELLITE THAT'S ACTUALLY ON ORBIT” • CAPABILITY TO TARGET SATELLITES EVEN IN MEO / HEO

18. CHINESE SPACE WEAPONS PROGRAMMES • ASAT LASERS • CO-ORBITAL ASAT • BALLISTIC MISSILE • MANIPULATION OF SATELLITE • NETWORK ATTACK • BROAD SPECTRUM AND NARROW FREQUENCY JAMMING OF SATELLITE • SPACE MINING • EMP ASAT • TIANGONG-1 SPACE SHIP – UTILITY FOR A MILITARY BASE

19. CO-ORBITAL ASAT : BX-1 MICRO-SATELLITE ABOARD SHENZHOU -7 .

20. IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA STRATEGIC • THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY • LIKELIHOOD OF ASIAN SPACE RACE TACTICAL • THREAT TO SPACE ASSETS

21. SPACE THEREFORE, WHETHER WE REALIZE IT OR NOT, HAS STARTED TO PLAY AN INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT ROLE IN MILITARY PLANNING & OPERATIONS • THE ULTIMATE “ HIGH GROUND ” • THE RMA IN 21 ST CENTURY

22. OPTIONS FOR INDIA

23. MILITARISATION OF SPACE THE INDIAN PERSPECTIVE • ISR • SECURE MILITARY COMMUNICATION • EARLY WARNING • NAVIGATION AND POSITIONING • TARGETING FOR PRECISION WEAPONS • SURVEYING AND MAPPING FOR MIL OPS • RADAR IMAGING FOR SURVEILLANCE • METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT FOR TACTICAL OPERATIONS

24. WHY WEAPONISATION ? • INDIAN SPACE PROGRAMME HAS BEEN MAINLY FOR DEVELOPING CIVILIAN SPACE APPLICATIONS • HOWEVER CHINA’S AGGRESSIVE POSTURING AGAINST INDIA NECESSITATES REVIEW OF SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF OUR SPACE ASSETS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SPACE WEAPONS TO PROTECT THEM

25. CHINA WORKING ON ‘INFORMATIONALISED WARFARE’ • DEPENDENCY ON SATELLITE BASED TECHNOLOGIES • HENCE INDIAN ASAT WILL BE THE MOST POTENT WEAPON FOR DETERRENCE AGAINST CHINA

26. IN JANUARY 2010, DR SARASWAT THE HEAD OF DRDO TOLD REPORTERS, “INDIA IS PUTTING TOGETHER BUILDING BLOCKS OF TECHNOLOGY THAT COULD BE USED TO NEUTRALIZE ENEMY SATELLITES. WE ARE WORKING TO ENSURE SPACE SECURITY AND PROTECT OUR SATELLITES. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE ALSO WORKING ON HOW TO DENY THE ENEMY ACCESS TO ITS SPACE ASSETS.”

27. THE CASE FOR INDIAN ASAT WEAPON NECESSARY AND URGENT

28. NECESSITY • IMPENDING CHINESE THREAT – NECESSITATES A CREDIBLE DETERRENCE • WEAPONISATION IS INESCAPABLE FOR INDIA TOWARDS SECURING ITS NATIONAL INTEREST • ASAT WEAPONS : THE ONLY WAY AHEAD FOR INDIA TO GAIN ASYMETRIC ADVANTAGE OVER CHINA • AVAILABILITY OF ASAT TECH • AGNI – V (FOR ASAT ROLE) • SATELLITES (FOR CO-ORBITAL BOMBARDMENT)

29. AGNI – V : A GAME CHANGER FOR DEVELOPMENT OF INDIAN ASAT • IN THE WORDS OF DR VK SARASWAT, DG DRDO : “AGNI-V’S LAUNCH HAS USHERED IN FANTASTIC OPPURTUNITIES IN BUILDING ASAT WEAPONS AND LAUNCHING NANO / MICRO SATELLITES ON DEMAND.” • ASAT WOULD INCLUDE MARRYING AGNI-V’S PROPULSION SYSTEM WITH THE KILL VEHICLE (AAD) OF THE OF THE SUCCESSFUL II-TIER BMD SYSTEM • AN ASAT IS REQUIRES • TO REACH AN ALTITUDE OF 800 KM -- AGNI-V WILL GIVE THE BOOSTING CAPABILITY • “KILL VEHICLE”-- AAD WITH ADVANCE SEEKERS, WILL BE ABLE TO HOME INTO THE TARGET SATELLITE

30. DR SARASWAT- INDIA WILL NOT TEST ASAT CAPABILITY THROUGH DESTRUCTION OF A SAT TO AVOID SPACE DEBRIS • ASAT CAPABILITY WOULD BE FINE TUNED THROUGH SIMULATED ELECTRONIC TESTS • VISIBLE DETRRENCE IS A CREDIBLE DETERRENCE • LEO ASAT TEST BY INDIA : A FEASIBLE OPTION

31. URGENCY FOR WEAPONISATION OF SPACE BY INDIA • IN 2008 EU PROPOSED CoC FOR OUTER SPACE • IN JUN 2010 US INDICATED PROPOSING A NEW TREATY FOR RESTRICTIONS ON SPACE BASED WEAPONS • EU SPONSORED CoC IN 2012 (REVIEW) • CoC IS BEING DEBATED IN UN BY GGE AND LIKELY TO BE RATIFIED IN 2013-14 • CoC IS SEEN AS A PRECURSOR FOR A RESTRICTIVE REGIME FOR ASAT WEAPONS • CASE ANALOGOUS TO NPT

32. THUS A NEW RESTRICTIVE REGIME ON SPACE WEAPONS IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW • FORECLOSE INDIA’S OPTION FOR TESTING ASAT CAPABILTY • A CASE SIMILAR TO NUCLEAR APARTHIED • HENCE THE URGENCY

33. THE WAY AHEAD • INDIAN SPACE PROGRAMME NO MATCH TO CHINESE PROGRAMME • INDIA SHOULD GO IN FOR ASAT TECHNOLOGY FOR A POTENT AND A CREDIBLE DETERRENCE AGAINST CHINA TO GAIN ASSYMETRIC ADVANTAGES • WORK TOWARDS CREATING AN “INDIAN SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE”

34. INDIAN SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE INDIA’S MILITARY REQUIREMENT IN SPACE FOR 21 ST CENTURY

35. OFFENSIVE COMPONENT • KINETIC KILL ENERGY (KKE) ASAT • CO-ORBITAL ASAT • LASER ASAT SYSTEM • CRUISE MISSILES • IRBM (AGNI V/VI) • SPACE MINING : SINGLE ROCKET MULTIPLE SATELLITE LAUNCH (MICRO/NANO/PICO) INDIA’S SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

36. DEFENSIVE COMPONENT • RISAT FOR SURVEILLANCE • IRNSS FOR PNT • GAGAN FOR AIR SPACE SURVEILLANCE AND MANAGEMENT • CCI-SAT FOR C4 COMPONENT OF C4ISR • NAVAL SAT FOR INT &TACTICAL COMMN • DCN FOR SECURE COMMN • ROBUST SSA NETWORK • BMD (THREE TIER) FOR AIR DEFENCE INDIA’S SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

37. CONCLUSION • OFFENCE IS THE BEST DEFENCE • DEMONSTRATED DETERRENCE IS A CAPABLE DETERRENCE (NECESSITY) • INDIA’S KKE ASAT : FOR STRATEGIC BALANCE IN ASIAN SPACE (URGENCY)

38. INDIA’S OFFENSIVE SPACE CAPABILITIES WILL ENSURE A CREDIBLE AND A POTENT DETERRENCE AGAINST CHINA

39. A SECURE AEROSPACE FOR INDIA TO PROTECT ITS NATIONAL INTEREST AND PROPEL ITS ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES WAY BEYOND THE 21 ST CENTURY, THEREBY MAKING INDIA ‘A LEADING WORLD POWER’

40. THANKS !!!

41. LAUNCED ON 11 APRIL 2012 • SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR • 24X7 DAY AND NIGHT • ALL WEATHER CAPABILTY • DAILY ROUTINE OF 14 ORBITS WITH A REPETITIVE CYCLE OF 25 DAYS • RESOLUTION OF UP TO 1 M • SURVEILLANCE RISAT-I

42. FIRST DEDICATED MILITARY SATELLITE (GSAT-7 OR INSAT-4F) • COMBINED NAVAL COMSAT AND NAVAL SURVEILLANCE MISSION • TO COVER A SWATH OF ABOUT 1,000 NAUTICAL MILES OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN • WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE INDIAN NAVY’S C4ISR CAPABILITY DEDICATED NAVAL SATELLITE

43. WILLPROVIDE COMMUNICATION NETWORK FOR SEAMLESS FLOW OF INFORMATION • ISOLATED FROM THE WORLD WIDE WEB (WWW) • ACCESS DATA GENERATED FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES & ASSETS • WILL LINK EVERY ASPECT OF MILITARY OPERATION TO A SINGLE POINT OF CONFLUENCE • WILL GIVE THE THEATRE CDR A WIDE, ACCURATE & HOLISTIC OVERVIEW OF THE BATTLEFIELD SCENARIO

44. FIRST COMMUNICATIONS CENTRIC INTELLIGENCE SATELLITE (CCI-SAT) IS PLANNED FOR LAUNCH IN 2014 • BEING BUILT BY THE DEFENSE ELECTRONIC RESEARCH LABORATORY • A PART OF A LARGER DEVELOPMENT FOR MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ENHANCEMENT UTILIZING ADVANCED ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEMS CAPABILITY COMMUNICATION CENTRIC INTELLIGENCE-SATCCI-SAT

45. THE FIRST STEP TOWARDS INTRODUCTION OF MODERN COMMUNICATION,NAVIGATION, SURVEILLANCE/AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OVER INDIAN AIRSPACE • INVOLVES ESTABLISHMENT OF • 15 INDIAN REFERENCE STATIONS • 03 INDIAN NAVIGATION LAND UPLINK STATIONS • 03 INDIAN MISSION CONTROL CENTERS • INSTALLATION OF ALL ASSOCIATED SOFTWARE AND COMMUNICATION LINKS GPS-AIDED GEO-AUGMENTED NAVIGATION (GAGAN)

46. WILL INCREASE SAFETY BY USING 3 D APPROACH OPERATION WITH COURSE GUIDANCE TO THE RUNWAY • HIGH POSITION ACCURACIES OVER INDIAN AIRSPACE • PROVIDES A THREE-METRE ACCURACY • POSITIONAL ACCURACIES WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY AVAILABLE TO 80 CIVILIAN AND MORE THAN 200 NON-CIVILIAN AIRPORTS AND AIRFIELDS PLANNED (EVENTUALLY 500 AIRFIELDS) GAGAN

47. AREA OF COVERAGE : GAGAN

48. REGIONAL NAVIGATION SYSTEM • WOULD PROVIDE TWO SERVICES • STANDARD POSITIONING SERVICE OPEN FOR CIVILIAN USE • RESTRICTED SERVICE (ENCRYPTED ONE) ONLY FOR AUTHORISED USERS (MILITARY) • MISSILE TARGETING COULD BE AN IMPORTANT MILITARY APPLICATION FOR THE CONSTELLATION INDIAN REGIONAL NAVIGATION SATELLITE SYSTEM (IRNSS)

49. 07 SATELLITES CONSTELLATION • 03 SATELLITES WILL BE IN GEO OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN AND 04 IN GSO • ALL 07 SATELLITES WOULD HAVE CONTINUOUS RADIO VISIBILITY WITH INDIAN CONTROL STATIONS. • SATELLITE PAYLOADS WOULD CONSIST OF ATOMIC CLOCKS AND ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT TO GENERATE THE NAVIGATION SIGNALS INDIAN REGIONAL NAVIGATION SATELLITE SYSTEM (IRNSS)

50. IRNSS ARCHITECTURE