Climate Change its impact: Issues and Implications Dr. Murali G. Ranjitkar Visiting fellow- NASC

1. Climate Change its impact: Issues and Implications Dr. Murali G. Ranjitkar Visiting fellow- NASC 27,Falgun,2071

2. Table of Content • Definition of climate change • The Feature of Climate Change • Climate Change and its Impact on Infrastructures Development • Climate Change: The Global Warming • Himalayas, More Vulnerable to Climate Change

3. Table of content • Nepal, More Vulnerable to Climate Change • Impact of Climate Change: Stress and Vulnerability • Impact of Climate Change: Irrigation • Impact of Climate Change: Agriculture • Impact on other Infrastructure development

4. Table of content • The Policy • Climate Change: The Adaptation Methods • Initiatives for Climate Change Adaptation • Conclusions • Some Recommendations

5. Definition of climate change • Climate, an Overall Atmospheric Environment; a Nature’s Safeguard System to all Living beings on the Earth • A Dynamic Phenomenon creating a dynamic balance within the ecology and ecosystem of species and vegetations

6. Definition of climate change • The balance between the major ingredients for species including human being [Oxygen (O2)] and the vegetation [Carbon dioxide (CO2)], and other players such as Nitrogen (N2), Methane (NH4) and others • The Change in these atmospheric ingredients and the consequent imbalance or new type of balance among them leading to uncomfortable impact on the overall living beings on the Earth

7. The Feature of Climate Change • Climate Change is primarily associated with the vertical shift in temperature, rainfall pattern and humidity. • The dynamic equilibrium within the solar system and among such systems in the galaxy or the celestial universe suggests that such change is a normal phenomenon.

8. The Feature of Climate Change • However, the emission of green house gases (GHG) has been found to aggravate the situation by triggering corrosion in the ozone layer that encircles and guards the earth atmosphere for all living beings. • Now, with the emissions going on unabated, the climate change feature has surfaced and felt more than ever.

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10. Climate Change and its Impact on infrastructures development • All the infrastructure development is not possible without water. • Change in source water, surface or underground, directly affects on infrastructure development. • About 75 – 80% of rainfall takes place during four months (June-September) of the year resulting in highly uneven fluctuations to the rivers and streams.

11. Climate Change and its Impact on Infrastructures Development • With Climate Change, owing to heating, the waters at the sources would either dry up or deplete causing stress at the downstream. • The stress eventually would lead to dispute and conflict.

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15. Nepal, More Vulnerable to Climate Change • Economic based on Natural resources, Agriculture and Tourism • Sensitive to Flood, Landslide, Soil erosion and Drought • Limited resources to control natural calamities • Remote areas- Not so accessible for prompt service and rescue • Low community awareness, specific study and research on climate change • Lack of effective plan and program Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation Sector

16. Nepal, More Vulnerable to Climate Change • The statement that Nepal is more vulnerable to climate change is founded on that 87% of the country’s terrain is mountains and Himalayas. • Nepal is expected to experience an annual rise in temperature of 0.06 0C. in coming years • The overall trend is towards warming drier years ahead.

17. Nepal, More Vulnerable to Climate Change • One burning example has come in the news (Republica, June 1, 2010): In the first recognized case of climate change refugees in Nepal, The entire village of Dhe (HH: 23; Population: 150) in Sukhang VDC in Upper Mustang, is being resettled in Thengchung in Lower Mustang.

19. Climate Change: The Global Warming • Rise in Temperature • Predictions based on Regional Climate Models: • Temperatures in Indian Sub Continent will rise by between 3.5 – 5.5 0C by 2100 • Temperatures in Tibbetan Plateau, by 2.5 0C by 2050 and 5 0C by 2100 • With 2 0C rise in temperature by 2050, 35% of the present glaciers will have melt resulting in increase in the runoff.

20. Himalayas, More Vulnerable to Climate Change • The region known as Greater Himalaya is the source of the nine largest rivers in Asia, the basins of which are home to over 1.3 billion people (ICIMOD, Technical Paper, 2007) • Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan Rivers (Prof. Dr. Bidur Upadhyay, THT, June 3, 2010)

21. Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation Sector

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23. Himalayas, More Vulnerable to Climate Change • The Himalayan rivers of Nepal contribute about 40% of the average annual flow in the Ganges basin; and about 70% of the flow in the dry season • Mean temperatures decline by about 1 0C per 160m elevation (longitude) compared with 1 0C per 150 Km by latitude.

24. Nepal, More Vulnerable to Climate Change • 3 Effects: • “The sources of water have completely dried up.” • “It is getting extremely difficult for people to even arrange two meals a day” • There is hardly any greenery to be seen around the village, which just seven years back used to be very green.” Amchi Tenjin Dharke.

25. Nepal, More Vulnerable to Climate Change • Besides, much of Nepal’s soils are exposed to extra vulnerability owing to their • steep slopes, • deforestation • erratic precipitation • high floods

26. Impact of Climate Change: Stress and Vulnerability • Clearly from the Mustang example, the first stress is on the declining water flow in source rivers • The stress is then transferred down to agriculture, greenery, infrastructure development and to the living of the people in general

27. Impact of Climate Change: Stress and Vulnerability • On the other hand, again, stress is also developed owing to thunderstorms, the emergent high floods and the droughts along with their frequencies • All these, increase the exposure to the risk and vulnerability to the infrastructures development

28. Impact of Climate Change: Irrigation • Warming trend: • Stress due to water resource depletion at source • Water sufficiency will be hampered • Wetland will dry up and greenery will decline • Infrastructure may become useless • On the contrary, retreat or melting of the glaciers will cause high flood flows in snow-fed rivers posing challenge to the previous designs and estimates of the infrastructures

29. Impact of Climate Change: Irrigation • Unpredictability: • Unexpected thunderstorms and cloudbursts will cause unpredictable flash floods leading to soil erosion and endangering the infrastructures • Hailstones and storms will destroy the crops • Droughts will cause severe stress and overturn the hard-earned balance between water source, irrigation and the cropland

30. Impact of Climate Change: Agriculture • The duration between sowing and harvesting of the crop will shorten causing an adverse effect on its productivity, ex. apple • Shift in flower blossoming season, ex. rhododendron (shifted to from Chaitra back to Poush) • Rise in temperature and humidity gives rise to proliferation of the anti crop insects and fungi • Evapotranspiration, photosynthesis and biomass production is changed

31. Impact of Climate Change: Agriculture • Warming Trend • Land suitability is altered • An Opportunity: “Carbon fertilization effect” • Increased CO2 levels lead to a positive growth response for a number of staples under controlled conditions • Unpredictability • Almost all crops are vulnerable to the unpredictable precipitation, thunderstorms and droughts • In the year 2010, Mustang has reported expectation of around 50% increase in apple production; normal monsoon predicted.

32. Major Impact on Climate Change • Increase in temperature • Change in precipitation • Melting of glacier • Soil carbon stock • Increase in photosynthesis • Upward movement in biomass • Alteration in species composition Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation Sector

33. Impact on other Infrastructure development • Road development • Urban development • Hydro power development • Water supply and sanitation development • Industrial development • Tourism development • Local development activities

34. Climate Change: Adaptation Approach • Study the climate change trend particularly the temperature change (rise or fall) in relation with elevation (longitude) and the horizontal distance (latitude) • Also, identify the risk and vulnerable zones in relation to the high flood flows, debris flows, GLOF, avalanches and landslides • Design and adopt suitable technologies, techniques and practices for all infrastructure • Design and adopt suitable crops, cropping pattern and cropping methods

35. The Policy related to climate change • Nepal Government initiated the efforts towards conserving environment since the Sixth Periodic Plan • The efforts have been more focused towards climate change and its adaptation in Second Three Year Interim Plan (2010 – 2013). • Initiatives to raise awareness about climate change and temperature rise to be specific have been conducted and shall continue • Programs for National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) have been initiated and shall continue in wider spectrum

36. The Policy related to climate change • The Second TYIP aims at encouraging the concept of Green Development and thereby minimizing the adverse effects of the climate change and adapting with the changes by making development works and human activities more environment friendly • It intends to check the urban pollutions and maintain the natural beauty of the rural areas • Irrigation, Agriculture, Soil Conservation and Hydrology/ Meteorology sectors will be encouraged to coordinate among each other.

37. Climate Change: The Adaptation Methods • Not much has been done for infrastructure projects • For, agriculture projects and schemes, new technology and techniques such as zero tillage, shifting the sowing period, etc can be adopted. • A dilemma. More vegetation contributes to bringing a balance in atmosphere. More area will be required for more vegetation such as farming or afforestation. But, more people owing to population growth will need more land to be developed for housing and cropping.

38. Initiatives for Climate Change Adaptation • National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) Office has been established • IEE and EIA studies have been made mandatory for all the infrastructure development projects to ensure that the natural environment is not damaged and to make sure that at least minimum requirements of environment conservation and climate change adaptation, if any are maintained while implementing them.

39. Major Initiation toward Climate change (National level) • National policy on climate change • National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) • Local Adaptation Program of Action (LAPA) • National Climate Change Support Program(NCCSP) • Alternative energy promotion program • Pilot project on Carbon trading, Climate adaptation • Awareness program on climate change Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation Sector

40. Major Initiation toward Climate change (International level) • United nation Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC)-1992- Sign 154 country • Kyoto Protocol-1997- World Convention on GHG reduce @ 5.2% with respect to 1990 • Climate adaptation fund for developing country Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation Sector

44. Conclusions • Climate Change has direct and adverse implication on infrastructure development • Adapting climate change in irrigation and agriculture sectors is a challenge • With climate change gradually showing its adverse effects, the risk reduction and adaptation initiatives are a must

45. Recommendations • Plan, design and implement infrastructure development projects ensuring not to deteriorate rather to enhance or at least maintain the minimum environmental balance • Plan adaptation measures along with mitigation ones.

46. Recommendations • Plan and Allocate certain budget for the research and studies for climate change and devising adaptation frameworks • Establish a working network among Infrastructure development sector road, Hydropower, irrigation, disaster prevention, hydrology-meteorology and soil conservation sectors

47. Thank you