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The Demand for Higher Education in Missouri: Trends and Influences on Enrollment

This conference presentation by Michael Podgursky at the Missouri ACT Council discusses the increasing demand for higher education in Missouri and the factors influencing enrollment trends. It highlights the significant role of family income, tuition affordability, and K-12 academic preparedness in shaping college attendance. Research emphasizes that while financial barriers are often noted, the underlying effects of family background, parental education, and long-term income influence students' readiness for higher education. The analysis offers insights from data and past studies relevant to educational attainment.

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The Demand for Higher Education in Missouri: Trends and Influences on Enrollment

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  1. The Demand for Higher Education in Missouri 2006 Missouri ACT Council Conference March 8, 2006 Michael Podgursky Department of Economics University of Missouri - Columbia

  2. P S EDD = f (return to HC, pop) D D’ ED

  3. (US)

  4. (US)

  5. Gross Benefits from Human Capital Investments Are Large Source: Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p23-210.pdf

  6. … and have increased over the last three decades Source: Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p23-210.pdf

  7. What about “affordability?” What is the effect of tuition or financial aid on enrollment?

  8. 0, + College Attendance Family Income + + K-12 Academic Achievement Non-Cognitive Skills

  9. Stephen Cameron and James Heckman. “The Dynamics of Educational Attainment for Black, Hispanic, and White Males.” Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 102, No. 5 (2001), pp. 455-499.

  10. “The strong correlation between college attendance and family income is widely interpreted as evidence that short-term borrowing constraints impede enrollment. We argue that the importance of short-term credit constraints is greatly exaggerated. It is the long-term influence of family income and family background as captured by our measure of ability, or equivalently by parental education, that best explains the correlation. Family income matters, but it has its greatest influence on forming the ability and college readiness of children and not in financing college education.” Stephen Cameron and James Heckman. “The Dynamics of Educational Attainment for Black, Hispanic, and White Males.” Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 102, No. 5 (2001), pp. 455-499.

  11. Poor Preparation Return to HC = Discounted Benefits – Discounted Cost

  12. A+ ProgramEffect 3 years after Designation • 2 Year Public HE Enrollment + 7.1 %-pt • 4 Year Public HE Enrollment - 3.8 %-pt • Total Public HE Enrollment + 3.3 %- pt Myoung Lee, Peter Mueser, Michael Podgursky (2005)

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