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1981 to 2001 Trends Otago “Region” Population, Migration, Industries and Occupational Mix

1981 to 2001 Trends Otago “Region” Population, Migration, Industries and Occupational Mix. James Newell Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA). Dunedin City Council 16th August 2005. Outline. Background Population – changing demographic structure Population change components

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1981 to 2001 Trends Otago “Region” Population, Migration, Industries and Occupational Mix

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  1. 1981 to 2001 TrendsOtago “Region” Population, Migration, Industries and Occupational Mix James Newell Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA) Dunedin City Council 16th August 2005

  2. Outline • Background • Population – changing demographic structure • Population change components • Migration • Employment • Industries – industry shift share analysis • Occupations – Occupational workforce dynamics and shift share analysis

  3. My Background • 20 years plus working on development modelling and forecasting / independent social and economic research • Recent interests • Regional Development modelling (population, households, migration, land use, employment etc.) • Population projections and migration studies (NZ regional migration model version 2 just completed) • Operational forecasting (NZ Immigration Service operational forecasts, school roll projections etc.) • Labour market studies • Changing nature of work • Occupational workforce dynamics • Regional and rural development studies • Human educational capital and links to labour market

  4. From Dunedin • Brought up mainly in Dunedin, Otago Uni BSc Honours (Botany/Biology) and M Sc Hons (Resource Mgt – Resource Econs and Regl Planning option) Joint Centre for Environmental Sciences Lincoln/Canterbury • Wide Multidisciplinary background with core interests in applied maths, statsetc. • Local - Great-great grandfather Andy Liddell and Great grandfather Andy Liddell, arrived at Port Chalmers on 23 February 1860 on the “Gala” • Dairy Farm 1890’s “Maori Hill Farm” in Green Island • E.g. Early horse drawn Milk Supply! • Mother – local teacher Wakari School, Father – Director of Strengthening Primary Health Services Division World Health Organisation (Alma Atta Declaration)

  5. Population Change in Otago

  6. Otago Population : 1981-2001

  7. Annual % Change in Population Change : 1981-2001

  8. Dunedin City – Population by Age 1981 to 2001

  9. Otago Region and New Zealand – 2001 Population Distribution by Age

  10. Otago Region– Population Distribution by Age 1981 to 2001

  11. Components of Population Change

  12. Otago Region : Components of Population Change 1981 to 2001

  13. Otago : Natural Increase Components

  14. Otago Region : Number of Births by Age of Mother 1991 to 2003

  15. Ratio of Natural Increase 1991-1996 and 1996-2001 by Region and NZ

  16. Otago Region– Population by Age 1991 to 2001

  17. Otago Population Growth Rate Decreased from 1991-1996 to 1996-2001 • 26% Reduction in Otago Region natural increase between 1991-1996 and 1996 – 2001 resulting from • Reduced population aged 25-35 years (main factor?) • Change in birthrate by age • reduction in birthrate of younger women • partly offset by increased birthrates for older women) • Major factor • net migration gain over 1991-1996 • net migration loss over 1996-2001

  18. Migration

  19. Otago Region Migration Breakdown

  20. Otago Region Migration Components

  21. 1996-2001 Migration Intensity by Age for Selected Regions

  22. Otago Region : Net Migration by Age Group

  23. International Out Migration Rate Trends

  24. Gender ratios

  25. Otago Region Gender ratios

  26. Comparing Gender ratios

  27. Employment Trends

  28. Otago Employment Trends

  29. Otago Employment Rate by Gender

  30. Trends in Employment Rate of Women

  31. Jobs by Industry

  32. Industry Trends

  33. Change in Jobs by Industry

  34. Annual % Change in Jobs by Industry

  35. Annual FTE % Change - Regional Comparisons - 1996-2001

  36. Otago : Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Jobs

  37. Otago : Mining and Manufacturing Jobs

  38. Utilities, Building, Wholesale Retail Restaurants Hotels, Transport and Communications

  39. Industry Shift Share Analysis

  40. Shift Share Analysis • Shift-Share Analysis following Dune (1960) • Where E represents employment • time is t, industry is i and region is j • NE represents National Employment Change Effect, • IM represents the Imdustry Mix Effect and • CE represents the Regional Competitive Effect.

  41. Otago Region : FTE Shift Share Trends Summary : Industry Level 2

  42. Industry Mix Effect per annum as % of Start Industry FTE

  43. Regional Competitive Effect per annum as % of Start Industry FTE (12 highest growth rates)

  44. Otago Regional Competitive Effect (8 largest effects in FTEs)

  45. Otago Region Shift Share Analysis : Motels Hotels Guest Houses Hostels Etc. FTEs

  46. E.g. Otago Job Trends at Industry level 5

  47. Occupational Trends

  48. Otago Occupations Level 1

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