The Great Divide

1. The Great Divide What causes people to support one party instead of the other?

2. I. Demographic Characteristics

3. A. Race • Single Best Predictor for Most Racial Minorities If you can pick one characteristic about a person and then predict their own party identification, ask about race (and ethnicity): better predictor than age, sex, income, education, geography, etc. Also helps predict ideology and issue positions (Abramowitz)

4. Example: Race/Ethnicity Trump Rural-Urban Divide (Rural Counties Map)

5. County Map of 2008 Results

6. ’04 ‘08 2. African-American Political Participationa. ≈ 90% of African-Americans Vote Democratic

8. b. Race trumps gender, age, and income

9. 3. Asian-American Political Participation a. Recent Findings: • Pro-Democrat (3:1 for Kerry in 2004, 2:1 for Obama in 2008) • Majority too young to vote or noncitizens • Country of origin effects • Importance of immigration and language issues • Decreasing Democratic advantage? Mixed results due to small sample sizes b. Difficult to study quantitatively (small size of population relative to random sample of entire US population)

10. 4. Native American Political Behavior • No exit polling data – findings based on geographic comparisons

11. Native American Counties

12. County Map of 2008 Results

13. B. The Ethnic Divide: Latino Political Behavior1. Latinos favor Democrats About 2:1

14. 2. Party Identification Favors Democrats • Party Identification

15. 3. Need to control for registration: large differences

17. 4. Latino diversity: Country of Origin Effects

18. All but Cuban-Americans favor Dems, on average

20. 5. Ethnicity Trumps income, education, and residency

21. 6. Immigration attitudes cross party lines

22. C. The Gender Gap 1. Women more likely to favor Dems 2. Differential enthusiasm between men/women helps predict election outcomes (2010 midterm example)

24. 3. Early gap was race-based, but recent increase is not

25. 4. Fiorina’sExplanation: Partisan Shifts • Women more dovish on security • Women more pro-government on social programs • Since 1970s Democrats have been both more dovish and more pro-government on social programs  gender gap

26. 5. Puzzle: Regional variation in the gender gap

28. D. Age 1. Democrats do well among the very young and the old

31. D. Age • Democrats do well among the very young and the old • But young are most likely to be independents

33. 3. Gender outweighs age

34. 3. Age increases voting

35. E. Population Density 1. Urban areas trend Democratic, Rural areas trend Republican

37. a. Population Density by County

38. Election 2008: County Map

39. b. The Shift: Rural support for Republicans (Blue) and Democrats (Red) in Congress

40. c. Rural/Urban Voters Have Similar Priorities…

41. d. …But Different Ideologies

42. e. Two Core Divisions: Religion and Guns

43. f. Rural Voters Reverse the “Gender Gap”

44. 2. The suburban majority: Voting splits on North/South lines Suburbs split 50-50 in 2000, 53-47 in 2004, 49-51 in 2008

45. II. Socioeconomic Status • Mostly from Gelman (2008 and subsequent presentations)

46. A. The red-blue paradox • Richer states tend to be more liberal and vote Democratic, while poorer states tend to be more conservative and vote Republican.

48. A. The red-blue paradox • Richer states tend to be more liberal and vote Democratic, while poorer states tend to be more conservative and vote Republican. • But richer people tend to be more conservative and vote Republican, while poorer people tend be more liberal and vote Democratic.