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Latino Participation and Partisanship

This lecture discusses the barriers to Latino electoral participation and explores strategies for overcoming them. It also examines the role of Latino communities in organizing and mobilizing voters, as well as potential changes to electoral and party institutions to increase Latino voting likelihood.

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Latino Participation and Partisanship

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  1. Latino Participation and Partisanship Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 5 October 14, 2008

  2. Questions for Week 2 Readings • What are the barriers to Latino electoral participation? • How can these be overcome? • How can Latino communities organize to overcome these barriers? • How can electoral and party institutions be changed to increase the likelihood of Latino voting?

  3. Who Votes? (and why)?

  4. White, Black, Latino, and Asian American Turnout, 2004

  5. Why the Gap? • Demographic/compositional factors • Citizenship • Age • Education • Income • Mobilization/leadership/networks • People respond to being asked to participate • Institutions must be in place to ask • Individuals in networks more likely to be asked • Political factors drive whether resources will be invested

  6. Which of these Will Come into Play in 2008? • Compositional factors will drive lower Latino participation for the foreseeable future • Civic networks are weaker in Latino communities • Unions playing a new role • Latino organization led mobilization effort – Ya Es Hora • Several states competitive, so will see extensive outreach • Florida • New Mexico • Colorado • Nevada • New naturalized citizens will add to citizen adult population, but will need mobilization to join electorate

  7. Latino Turnout 1992-2004

  8. Estimate for Latino Turnout – 2008 9,100,000

  9. Biggest Debate in Media/Party Discussions of Latino Politics Not, why don’t more Latinos vote, but are Latinos becoming Republican or are Latinos a “swing” vote?

  10. Argument Made by Republican Leaders • Latinos are self-professed conservatives • Latinos more likely than other Democrats • To oppose abortion and be socially conservative • To support the death penalty • Latinos more like to own small businesses • Bush has made personal inroads • 1998 Texas gubernatorial campaign • Spanish-language ads in Iowa, 2000 Caucuses • Bush speaks Spanish

  11. All Correct, but Misunderstand Latino Community • They are big government conservatives • Interesting research question – what does conservatism mean in Latino communities? • Social issues top agenda • Bush’s personal appeal to some Latinos not translated to Republicans • Exit polls of Latinos not too accurate • Ricochet pander • Clinton – “The last president not to speak Spanish”

  12. Latino Partisanship, 1989 and 2008

  13. Latino Partisanship—Rule of Thumb • Going into a competitive election • Democrats have 60 percent of the Latino vote • Republicans have 20 percent • Remaining 20 percent up for grabs • In Florida, reverse the party names • This is a core of Latino influence • White vote more evenly divided (with a slight bias toward the Democrats in registration and Republicans in voting) • Black vote more partisan than Latino vote – 80/10 for the Democrats

  14. Why? • Historical connections between Democrats and non-Cuban Latinos • Partisanship transfers between parents and children • Latinos an urban population and Democrats strong in cities • Affinity of Latinos for issues core to Democratic party • Social service delivery • Immigrant incorporation • Overwhelming majority of local Latino elected officials are Democrats • When new Latino voters see a Latino leader, they see a Democrat

  15. Did Bush Change the Story? • Not really • He was high in the range, but in the range • Polling errors have confused the story • Bush 2000 – 29-38 percent of the Latino vote • My estimate 33 percent or so • Bush 2004 – 38-42 percent of the Latino vote • My estimate high 30s • In both elections, polls initially showed Bush doing very well among Latinos

  16. Some Change Did Appear • Bush did well among • Texas Latinos • Religiously observant Latinos (both Catholic and Protestant), particularly in New Mexico • Second generation Latinos • Republican support declining among younger Cuban Americans in Florida

  17. Will McCain Do As Well? • Media assertions that Latinos will not support a Black candidate • Little empirical evidence • To the extent that there is evidence (little), strongest evidence among naturalized citizen Latinos • McCain pays a price for (white) Republican intolerance on immigration/immigrant incorporation • Economic conditions also limit Latino interest in McCain • So, McCain will not do as well as Bush • Decline will include Cuban Americans in Florida

  18. To Me • Question of partisanship obscures the larger and more important policy question of what can be done to increase turnout among Latino U.S. citizens • And, what can be done to increase the number of Latino immigrants naturalizing • A question for another day

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