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CEO Roundtable: Critical Issues in Today’s Media

In a rapidly changing media environment, Patrick Kenealy, CEO of IDG, discusses three critical challenges the company faces: fundamental technological shifts, changing business cycles, and a new media cycle. By reflecting on historical shifts in technology and market dynamics since the 1950s, Kenealy highlights the importance of adapting to these changes. The discourse includes insights on venture capital trends, the impact of market consolidation, and the emerging new media landscape driven by technological advancements. Embracing change is vital for future success.

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CEO Roundtable: Critical Issues in Today’s Media

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  1. CEO Roundtable: Critical Issues in Today’s Media Patrick Kenealy CEO, IDG

  2. Using the Past to Sell Internal Change

  3. IDG is coping with 3 major, simultaneous changes • Fundamental technology change • business cycles and vendor “waves” • A major new media cycle

  4. Was this slope obvious in 1970?

  5. Was this trend obvious in 1956?(Price/MB of disk space) • 1956: $10,000/MB • 1980: $200/MB • 1990: $9/MB • 2000: 2 cents/MB • 2004: 8.7MB/cent

  6. DJIA PC Stocks 2,500 2,000 Dow 30 1,500 1,000 A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1983 Source: JGantz Infoworld Stock Index A Typical IT Stock Crash 1984

  7. $ Trillion of PC Shipments! $ Billions 80 U.S. PC Shipment Revenues 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 The PC Crash, and after Source: IDC 2001

  8. Cause of Boom And Contraction Cycles When Promising New Technology Appears: • Many new firms launched with Venture Capital to try to exploit this new technology. • Potential Buyers are confused by too many choices of vendors and products. • Lower than expected sales cause many firms to drop out of market or to consolidate with competitors. • When surviving suppliers reduced to less than twenty, buyers gain confidence and make major commitments.

  9. 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 Computing Industry “Cycles” Can Be Deceptive

  10. Computing Waves: 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 Mainframes: Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox IBM

  11. Computing Waves: 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 Mainframes: Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox, IBM Minicomputers: Digital, Data General, Prime, Stratus, Tandem, Wang, IBM, H-P

  12. Computing Waves: 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 Mainframes: Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox, IBM Minicomputers: Digital, Data General, Prime, Stratus, Tandem, Wang, IBM, H-P PCs: ALR, AST, Atari, Compaq, Everex, Leading Edge, Micron, Packard Bell, TI, Tandon, IBM, H-P, Apple, Dell, Acer, Legend

  13. 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 Computing Waves: Mainframes: Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox, IBM Internet: 24/7, AltaVista, Etoys, Exodus, Goto.com, Globalcomm, US Web, AOL, Amazon, eBay, Expedia, Yahoo Minicomputers: Digital, Data General, Prime, Stratus, Tandem, Wang IBM, H-P PCs: ALR, AST, Atari, Compaq, Everex, Leading Edge, Micron, Packard Bell, TI, Tandon, IBM, H-P,Applw, Dell, Acer, Legend

  14. 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 So, what is the next wave? Security/Privacy PC Gaming Autonomous Computing BioIT/Life Sciences Gaming networks Web Services Job function Gadgets/Pers Auto RFID Console gaming Digital Home Mobile Apps/Svcs/Data

  15. New technology creates new media • Movable type: broadside and pamphlet journalism • Steam-powered rotary press: Giant metropolitan newspapers • Railroad: Big national magazines • Telegraph & fax: Newspaper chains • Radio • Television • Computers and databases: Controlled-circulation publishing • Cable: the 500 channel universe • Satellite: the global network • PCs, Internet, broadband: Web publishing

  16. Some new media thoughts • New market measurements are usual • Ad format experimentation and standardization are usual • Church/state boundary shifts are usual • Employee training – and turnover – are usual • New products, new leaders, and new fortunes emerge • Metros - McClure, McCormack, Ochs • Newspaper chains - Pulitzer, Scripps, Hearst, Knight-Ridder • Radio – Sarnoff • TV – Paley • Cable – Dolan, Malone • Satellite – Murdoch, Turner • Internet – Case, Yang, Philo, Brin,

  17. In conclusion… • The world of technology is always changing • The technology business is always changing • Journalism is changing • Change is the only constant

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