Catherine Witherspoon cwitherspoon@jps

1. Cleaning the Air and Reducing Greenhouse Gases in California Catherine Witherspoon cwitherspoon@jps.net

2. California: A Case Study • What drives CA air quality policies • Most effective strategies to date • Costs and benefits • Transitioning to climate change • Future challenges

3. CA Public Health Concerns Annual Health Impacts From Air Pollution* 9,000 premature deaths 1,000,000 asthma attacks 3,000,000 lost work days *California only, for exposures above state standards.

4. Particulate – Heart of the Matter 100’s of studies confirm: death rate rises as PM goes up Opposite occurs when PM drops (steel strike, coal mine closure) Lives shortened by 14 years Disease rates also increase

5. Projected California Impacts Next 100 Years 3 - 4 times more heat wave days 22 - 30 inches of sea level rise 90% loss of Sierra snow pack 10 Higher Warming Range (8 – 10.5 °F) 9 8 2.5 - 4 times more heat wave days 14 - 22 inches of sea level rise 70 - 80% loss of Sierra snow pack 30% decrease in forest yields (pine) 55% greater risk of forest fires 7 Medium Warming Range (5.5 – 8 °F) 6 5 4 3 2 - 2.5 times more heat wave days 6 - 14 inches of sea level rise 30 - 60% loss of Sierra snow pack 7 - 14% decrease in forest yields (pine) 10 - 35% greater risk of forest fires Lower Warming Range (3 – 5.5 °F) 2 1 0 13°F 12 11 ºF Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov

6. Hotter Days Mean More Smog • Los Angeles Ozone Levels (1995-1998) Ozone (ppm) California Ozone Standard Temperature (oF)

7. California’s Emission Controls What We’ve Done So Far…

8. In Plain English ... • If it burns, the exhaust is treated • If it evaporates, the gases are captured • If it’s carcinogenic, it’s banned or severely limited

9. More Precisely… • Maximum feasible emission reductions • Best available control technology • Constant ratcheting downward • Performance-based regulations • Some financial incentives, particularly for legacy fleet • No direct taxes • No social controls

10. Positive Crankcase Ventilation 14 Exhaust Standards Oxidation Catalyst 12 Three Way Catalyst On-Board Computer EGR 10 8 Advanced Computer Fuel Injection 02 Sensor g/mile HC + NOx 6 4 Phase 1 Gas 2 0 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 Auto Controls 1963-1993Emissions Cut ~90 Percent

11. Low Emission Vehicle I 0.7 Phase 2 Gasoline 0.6 0.5 Low Emission Vehicle II g/mile HC + NOx 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1994 1997 2000 2004 2010 Latest Phase of Auto ControlsEmissions Cut Another 90 Percent

12. Limited vapor pressure Eliminated lead from gasoline Wintertime oxygenates for carbon monoxide Cleaner burning diesel “Cleaner burning gas” to achieve maximum reductions in ozone and toxics Further reduce sulfur and benzene Low sulfur diesel 1996 1999 1992 2006 1993 Date Implemented Cleaner Fuel Regulations

13. Gasoline Vapor Recovery • Early, highly successful program (1970s) • Covers storage, transfer and retail ops • 2x better than LEV or CBG (total tons) • 90+% vapor control • Very cost-effective • CA now moving to “enhanced,” computerized diagnostic systems

14. Best technology for new plants Retrofits on existing sources Limits on NOx, ROG, SOx, toxics Heavy reliance on natural gas Industrial Source Controls

15. 50 categories including cleaners, personal care products, aerosol paints and coatings Consumer Products Program • Regulations will cut emissions >50% • Toxic compounds largely eliminated

16. Chrome Platers Cooling towers Asbestos roads & quarries Sterilizers and aerators Medical waste incinerators Metal melting Gas cans Dry cleaners Rural gas stations Automotive products Asbestos/roads Diesel Risk Reduction Plan Asbestos mining Auto coatings 1990 2000 Toxic Air Pollutant Measures

17. Kitchen Sink Measures80-95% Emission Control • All off-road diesel engines • Motorcycles • Outboard boat engines • Lawn and garden equipment • Jet ski watercraft • Forklifts • Small generators • Agricultural equipment

18. Indoor Air Pollution Sources • Air cleaners (ozone-generating) • Biological contaminants • Building materials & furnishings • Combustion appliances • Environmental tobacco smoke • Radon

19. Diesel Risk Reduction Plan • Adopted 2000 • 75 percent risk reduction by 2010 • 85 percent risk reduction by 2020 • Four Strategies: • Stringent new engine standards • Cleaner diesel fuel (<15 ppm sulfur) • In-use compliance • Retrofits and retirements

20. Standards for New On-Road Diesels 98+% reduction Model Year

21. Diesel Retrofit Technology Two primary designs Catalyzed filter Oxidation catalyst Both use wall-flow filters

22. Filter System Filter System Sample Installations Tractor Cab Trash Truck

23. California Emission Controls: What We’re Still Working On… • LA Port called “diesel death zone”

24. Freeway Exposures

25. Planes, locomotives, ships Growing relative share of emissions Growing absolutely with population Hardest Nut to Crack: Federal & International Emission Sources

26. Costs & Benefits COSTS Less than 0.1 percent GDP BENEFITS Pre-1990 controls: >$10 in health benefits for each $1 spent Post 1990 controls: ~$4 in health benefits for each $1 spent

27. Cost Effectiveness of Individual Measures Cost of regulations, 1986-2002 (dollars per pound of ozone precursor emissions)

28. Lessons Learned #1A Solid Foundation is Essential • Express public health goals clearly, preferably by legal mandate • Create sufficient institutional capacity to meet those goals • Keep science and technology current

29. Lessons Learned #2There’s Strength in Numbers • Californians overwhelmingly support clean air programs (>80%) • States acting together create defacto national and/or international standards • Interest groups support fair treatment for all – so act comprehensively

30. Lessons Learned #3Fortuitous Breakthroughs Happen • Industry will almost always innovate and comply at significantly lower costs • Business leaders set the mark – help them by leveling up not down • Technological solutions are much more successful than bans or deprivation

31. Addressing Climate Change Newest California program, our goals: • Cut greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by 2020 (~ 25% reduction) • Achieve 80% reduction by 2050 • Inspire national, international action

32. Working Assumptions • It’s all about the fuel you burn, the electricity you use, and where that energy comes from • Lowest hanging fruit: energy efficiency (EE) and fuel efficiency (FE) • End game: zero carbon energy

33. 11 11 Magnitude of Reductions Needed

34. Climate Action Plan (2006) Source: March 2006 Climate Action Team Report

35. Wedge AnalysisDrs. Socolow & Pacala, Princeton

36. Biggest Strategies in MMT Terms Annual Reductions in CO2 (million of tons) by 2020

37. California’s GHG Fleet Average Emission Standards ~22% reduction in 2012 ~30% reduction in 2016

38. Effect on GHG Emissions Total In-use Fleet

39. Principal Technologies to ReduceVehicle GHG Emissions CO2 Reduction • Direct injection (DI) 5% • Advanced valve control 4-16% • Downsize engine with turbo 8% • Electric accessories 3% • Cylinder deactivation (>4 cyl.) 6% • Integrated starter generator 6-10% • Automatic manual transmission 7% • Less friction, better Cd, tires, A/C 5%

40. Other Low CO2 Technologies • Battery electrics >90% less* • Gasoline hybrids 40-50% less • Diesel 20% less • Ethanol (E85) 26% less *Depending on electricity source

41. CA’s Renewable Energy Goals • 20% of total electricity by 2010 • 33% by total electricity by 2020 • Plan claims 11 MMT for achieving 33% penetration • Constraints: sunk transmission costs, expense of renewables, barriers to distributed gen

42. CA Electricity Sources Overall power mix: • 41.5% natural gas • 19% large hydro • 15.7% coal • 12.9% nuclear • 10.9% renewables In-State: 78% of supply (47 MMT CO2E) Out-of-State: 22% of supply (60 MMT CO2E)

43. California Efforts to ChangeUS Coal Policy • Prohibit new long-term coal purchases • Require natural gas equivalent emissions • Wean CA system off existing coal plants • Plan claims 9 MMT

44. Per Capita Energy Consumption

45. CA Energy Efficiency Measures

46. Early Action Measures • Low carbon fuel standard 2008 • High GWP refrigerants 2008 • High GWP consumer products 2008 • Landfill methane capture 2008 • SF6 in non-electricity sector 2009 • Port electrification 2007 • PFCs in semiconductor mfring 2008 • SmartWay truck efficiency 2008 • Tire inflation program 2009 26 MMT CO2-E total by 2020

47. What About Cap & Trade? • Many USA politicians support • Worked well for acid rain • Allowed by California law • Business friendly • If done right, fastest and cheapest path • Potential revenue generator • Creates new export markets • However, still controversial

48. Type of Market Envisioned • Mostly industrial sources • Trading among the West plus CDMs • ~One-third of 2020 goal (~60 MMT) By comparison: • EU ETS (1500 MMT - 8% = 120 MMT by 2012) • NE States (120 MMT - 10% = 12 MMT by 2020) • Japan demo (2 MMT - 25% = 0.5 MMT)

49. Economic Analysis • Action plan net positive for CA economy • 83,000 new jobs, $4B growth • Huge savings from energy efficiency and vehicle emission standards • Remaining strategies priced at 0-$50/ton

50. 8% 17% 25% 33% 42% 50% 58%