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Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U”

Dr. Njema Frazier discusses the vital intersection of predictive science and program credibility within the Stockpile Stewardship Program. This presentation delves into the core methodologies of hydrodynamics, turbulence, neutron chain reactions, and material properties to underline the importance of understanding uncertainties. By leveraging advanced simulations and validated tools, the aim is to enhance decision-making and safety in nuclear and thermonuclear applications. The talk emphasizes rigorous testing, reproducibility, and the need for systematic approaches to reduce uncertainties and build confidence in scientific outcomes.

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Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U”

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U” Njema Frazier, PhD Acting Deputy Director, Office of Advanced Simulation and Computing July 2008

  2. Stockpile Stewardship Program Decision-Basis Computing

  3. Balancing Act in building Confidence • Representing the Science • Hydrodynamics • Turbulence • Equations of State • Neutron Chain Reactions • Material Properties, Strengths • Shocks and Material Interfaces • Material Deformation, Plastic Flow • Nuclear and Thermonuclear Reactions • Electronics. Electrical Systems • Energetic Materials, Chemical Reactions • Heat Flow • Opacities • Magneto-hydrodynamics • Plasmas • Lasers • Radiation and Charged Particle Transport • Solving the Problems • LEPs • SFIs • Engineering • Safety • Threat Reduction • Secure Transportation • ICF • Supplying the Tools • Codes • Models • Platforms • Vis Capabilities • Expertise • Facilities • QMU Undervalued Tool in building Confidence: A Sound Methodology for identifying, quantifying, understanding, and driving down uncertainties

  4. National Decision-Basis Computing

  5. Delivery of Validated Tools • We Know all the Science present • We Understand all the Science present • We Understand how all the Science behaves in all our Systems • We Understand how all the Science would behave with variations on our Systems • We have identified the key Science phenomena present • We Understand most of the key Science present • We Understand how most of the key Science behaves in our Systems • We Understand how most of the key Science would behave with minor variations on our Systems

  6. Balancing Act in building Confidence • Scientific Approach • Systematic • Directed • Based on Core Methodologies • Rigorous testing • Sound Results • Reproducible • Consistent • Understandable • Well Understood Uncertainties • Error Bounds • Physical-basis for free parameters • Relationship between approximations and exact solutions • Identification of Single and Aggregate Uncertainties • Measures of Progress • Predictive Capability Framework • V&V Assessments • Milestones • External Reviews • Reduced Uncertainties in baselines • Increased usage Looking to build confidence in Methodologies and Measures …in addition to tools, people, and direction.

  7. Thank you!

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