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Presentation to Post-Primary Review Working Group – 19 June 2003

Presentation to Post-Primary Review Working Group – 19 June 2003. Features of the Current Arrangements. The Selective System. System of grammar and secondary schools 71 grammar schools (63,000 or 40% of pupils) 164 secondary schools (93,000 or 60% of pupils)

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Presentation to Post-Primary Review Working Group – 19 June 2003

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  1. Presentation to Post-Primary Review Working Group – 19 June 2003 Features of the Current Arrangements

  2. The Selective System • System of grammar and secondary schools 71 grammar schools (63,000 or 40% of pupils) 164 secondary schools (93,000 or 60% of pupils) • Differences within the selective system • Regional variations in access to places

  3. The Selective System in Practice • 66% of P7 pupils sat the 2002/03 tests • Admission to grammar schools: 35.3% (2002/03) • Over/under-subscription • Negligible movement between school types until age 16

  4. How does the NI system perform compared to other countries?

  5. UK Comparisons: 2+ ‘A’ levels A-E

  6. UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSEs A*-C

  7. UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSE A*-G

  8. UK Comparisons: No GCSEs

  9. Average GCSE Point Scores

  10. UK Comparisons: Average GCSE Point Scores

  11. International Comparisons:PISA and International Adult Literacy Survey • Significantly better than OECD average. • Around 10th out of 32 in Reading, Maths and Science. • Performed similar to England (and Scotland). • One of the widest ranges of achievement. • 24% of NI workforce at lowest literacy level.

  12. How Does the NI System perform for different groups?

  13. % Grade A in Transfer Test by Free School Meal Band 2001/02

  14. Average GCSE Point Score by Free School Meal Band (2001/02) for Secondary Schools

  15. % of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals

  16. 5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers

  17. 5+ GCSEs A*-G by FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers

  18. No GCSEs by FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers

  19. How does performance in Grammar and Secondary schools compare?

  20. GCSE Point Scores for All Pupils

  21. Grammar and Secondary Comparisons

  22. GCSE Point Scores for Secondary and Grammar Pupils

  23. Comparison of top achieving secondary school pupils with grammar pupils Top 25% of Secondary All Grammar School Leavers School Leavers % % 5+ GCSE’s A*-C 100 96 5+ GCSE’s A*-G 100 99

  24. Variation in School Performance 2001/02 Grammar Schools 3+ A Levels A-C 7+ GCSEs A*-C Top 10% 78% 99% Bottom 10% 46% 74% Secondary Schools 5+GCSEs A*-C 5+GCSEs A*-G Top 10% 63% 98% Bottom 10% 12% 53%

  25. How Does the NI system perform at post-16?

  26. Post-16 Participation Rates • 2001 Provisional figures for England • Sixth Form Colleges included in FE figure for England

  27. Post-16 Provision in Secondary Schools

  28. Access To Higher Education • Routes to Higher Education • 55% from grammar schools • 45% from secondary schools, FE Colleges and other sources • Majority of working class entrants to HE come through non-grammar routes

  29. Demography What impact will demography have on post-primary education?

  30. Demography • Population projections • Impact on post-primary population • Impact on secondary schools • Impact on grammar schools

  31. Population Projections

  32. Population Projections • Post-Primary Age Population to decline by a quarter by 2040

  33. How will this affect post-primary schools?

  34. School Population Projections

  35. Secondary:Grammar Ratios • By 2020 grammar and secondary ration will be 50:50

  36. Impact on Secondary Schools • By 2010 - reduction of 12,000 pupils in secondary schools which equates to 21 secondary schools (based on average size of 560) • By 2020 - 31,000 pupils (55 schools)

  37. Surplus Places • 13,000 surplus places in post-primary schools (8%) • Almost 70% (113) secondary schools have surplus places • Nearly half (76) have 10% or more surplus places

  38. Impact on Secondary Schools • Viability of some schools – closures, amalgamations • Ability mix within schools • Impact will be greater in particular areas

  39. Impact on Grammar Schools • Ability mix within schools • 8% of admissions to grammar schools are Cs or Ds at present • 21 grammar schools with 10% admissions with Cs and Ds in Transfer Test • 10 schools with 20% or more Cs and Ds admitted

  40. Demography: Key Points • Population to fall by a quarter by 2040 • Full impact on secondary sector • Implications for rationalisation • Implications for ability mix in secondary and grammar schools

  41. Forces For Change • Dissatisfaction with Transfer Test • Weaknesses in post-16 provision • Curricular change • Falling post-primary demography • Changing social profile of intakes to HE

  42. Forces for Change (Cont) • Equality/human rights/inclusion agenda • Social cohesion • Globalisation/economic development • Local Assembly

  43. Discussion What issues have been raised by this presentation?

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