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Az orosz piac kihívásai 2015-ben Horváth Gergely

Az orosz piac kihívásai 2015-ben Horváth Gergely. Elmúlt évek dinamikus növekedése Magyarországon. 3. 14. * Előzetes adatok. Russia tr a vel growth has been v ery s t ron g…. T o t a l R u ss i a n ou t boun d t r a v e l , 199 0 - 2013

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Az orosz piac kihívásai 2015-ben Horváth Gergely

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  1. Az orosz piac kihívásai 2015-ben Horváth Gergely

  2. Elmúlt évek dinamikus növekedése Magyarországon 3. 14. * Előzetes adatok

  3. Russiatravelgrowthhasbeenverystrong… TotalRussianoutboundtravel,1990-2013 OvernightvisitorarrivalsfromRussiabydestination WorldtoEurope* 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 12%CAGR No.ofoutboundtourists(mns) 15%CAGR 200020052010 *Europeis definedas ETCmembersplus France,NetherlandsandUK

  4. … makingaverylargecontributiontogrowth forallEuropeansub-regions… RussiancontributiontogrowthacrossEurope,2008-13 %oftotalEuropeinboundarrivalsgrowth2008-13 C/BalticEurope C/E.Europe S/MedEurope Positive contribution N.Europe W.Europe 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

  5. …withdifferencesbycountryandcity Russian contribution to growth for European cities, 2008-13 % of total inbound arrivals growth 2008-13, selected cities from Global City Travel database with large Russian visits Helsinki Sofia Tallin Riga Prague Madrid Vilnius Rome Vienna Lyon Istanbul Munich Barcelona Budapest Berlin Amsterdam Antalya Milan Paris London Positive contribution 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

  6. EuropeanarrivalsfromRussiadownin2014… Visits from Russia to select destinations 2014, year-to-date*, % change year ago 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 Russianvisitornightsinselect destinations 2014,year-to-date*,%changeyearago 50 40 30 20 10 0 Serbia UK Iceland Italy Montenegro Turkey Cyprus Latvia Hungary Czech Rep Bulgaria Slovenia Greece Estonia Spain Austria Belgium Germany Romania Lithuania Switzerland Croatia Poland Malta Slovakia Serbia Italy Hungary Netherlands Belgium Germany Luxembourg Austria Czech Rep Estonia Denmark Lithuania Switzerland Latvia Spain Slovenia Poland Portugal Finland Malta Sweden Croatia Slovakia Norway -10 -20 -30 Source:TourMIS *date varies(Jan-Dec)bydestination Source:TourMIS *date varies(Jan-Dec)bydestination

  7. …broadlyinlinewithexpectation Divergenceofscenarios,ETC+3arrivals Counterfactual Increased sanctions Latest data Current sanctions Conflict 24000 Europeanarrivals fromRussia(000s) 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

  8. ButtraveltoEuropefelllate intheyear European travel from Russia & exchange rate Annual % change 8th September: Oil price dropsbelow$100pb 20% 17thMarch:firsttravel bans and asset freezes imposed 27th November: Oil price below $75pb 10% 0% -10% -20% ETC+3 arrivals* ETC+3 excl Turkey Rouble v Euro -30% -40% -50% Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Source: TourMIS, Tourism Economics. * collated monthly TourMIS reporting, excludes some European destinations. Indicative of trend not growth rate

  9. Oilpricefallsandcollapseinroublevalue… Russia:Rouble and oil US$/barrel RUB/US$ 120 30 RUB/US$ (RHS,inverted) 35 110 40 100 45 90 50 Oilprice(LHS) 80 55 70 60 60 65 50 70 40 75 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Source :OxfordEconomics/HaverAnalytics Jan-15

  10. …are leadingtodeeprecession… Russia:GDP and OilPrice %year RussiaGDP 140 15% Oil price,US$pb 120 10% 100 5% 80 0% 60 -5% 40 -10% 20 Forecast 0 -15% 200620082010 Source:OxfordEconomics 2012 2014 2016 10

  11. …notfullyanticipatedinpriorscenarios… Russia:GDP forecast evolution %year 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% April 2014forecast October2014forecast February2015forecast -4% -6% -8% Forecast -10% 20132014 Source:OxfordEconomics 2015 2016

  12. Tourismakeyareaforimportsubstitution Russia:Domesticv OutboundTourism %year DomesticHotel Arrivals RussianOutboundTrips 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% Forecast -25% 20062008 Source:OxfordEconomics 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

  13. FurtherfallsforEuropeexpectedin 2015 Divergenceofscenarios,ETC+3arrivals Counterfactual Increased sanctions Latest trends Current sanctions Conflict 24000 Europeanarrivals fromRussia(000s) 22000 20000 18000 -25% 16000 14000 -40% 12000 10000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

  14. Withlargedivergenceincountryperformance Arrivals from Russia: 2013-16 Cumulative arrivals falls/gains from Russia, % change over 3 years Slovakia Iceland Switzerland Belgium Luxembourg Sweden Slovenia Denmark Poland Montenegro Romania Germany Greece Spain Norway Finland Italy Netherlands Austria Turkey Hungary France Malta Lithuania Bulgaria Estonia Croatia Cyprus UK Czech Rep. Latvia -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

  15. Russiaarrivalspullingdown2015performance ETC+3tourismdemandbyorigin %year Totalarrivals Fromother ETC+3markets FromLong-haul FromOther Europe 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2011 2012 Source :TourismEconomics 2013 2014 2015 2016

  16. Andriskofconflictremains Divergenceofscenarios,ETC+3arrivals Counterfactual Increased sanctions Latest trends Currentsanctions Conflict Newconflict 24000 Europeanarrivals fromRussia(000s) 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 -50% 12000 10000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

  17. Lehetséges válaszok A kimaradó orosz kereslet pótlása más piacokról Fenntartó marketingtevékenység

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