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Navigating Shipping Markets: Opportunities and Trends from the 2012 Academic Conference

This summary highlights the key insights from the "Shipping Markets & Ship Operations" academic conference held in November 2012, led by Nigel Bell, Managing Director of Bell Shipping Ltd. The discussions focused on market trends, challenges, and growth opportunities in the shipping industry, particularly concerning bulk and spot earnings, fleet trends, and the impact of newbuilding costs. Key findings included the transition from Panamax to post-Panamax vessels and the significant over-ordering impacting market recovery.

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Navigating Shipping Markets: Opportunities and Trends from the 2012 Academic Conference

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  1. SHIPPING ACADEMIC CONFERENCES2012 Shipping Markets A Time of Opportunity Nigel Bell Managing Director Bell Shipping Ltd., UK

  2. OECD Growth / Dry Trade Growth Source: Clarkson Research Services Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  3. Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  4. Bulk Spot Earning ($/Day) Source: Clarkson Research Services Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  5. Source: Clarkson Research Services Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  6. Capesize and Panamax values over the last 15 years 5 year old Capesize and Panamax Values 1 January 2003 to 20th November 2012: Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  7. Newbuilding, Resale, 5 year old and 10 year old Prices:

  8. Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  9. Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

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  22. Capesize Fleet Trends Source: Clarkson Research Services Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  23. Panamax Fleet Trends Source: Clarkson Research Services Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  24. Handy/Handymax Fleet Trends Source: Clarkson Research Services Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  25. Demolition Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  26. Dry Bulk Market Summary • Over-ordering will hold back recovery • Panamax will become out dated • Only 5% of panamaxes transit the Panama Canal • 2 markets for Panamax – Atlantic and Pacific • Post-panamax & minicape will replace Panamax Panamax draft vs. Post-Panamax / Minicape draft 75,000 on 13.9mtrs vs. 106,000 on 13.5mtrs • Low Newbuilding costs: 2010 2012 Capesize $57.0m $46.5m Panamax $34.5m $26.5m Handymax $31.0m $24.5m Handysize $26.5m $21.5m Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  27. Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

  28. Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

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  31. Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

  32. Source: Clarkson Research Services Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  33. Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” – November 2012

  34. Source: Clarkson Research Services Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  35. Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

  36. Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  37. Source: Clarkson Research Services Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  38. Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

  39. Source: Clarkson Research Services Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  40. Tanker Market Summary • No New Oil Refineries planned in USA or Europe • Virtually all New Oil Refineries are in Asia, India and China • Reduction in Crude Oil Demand in USA and Europe • Petroleum Product will move from Asia to USA and Europe – Likely Size “LR2 / Coated Aframax” • Reduction in Demand for VLCC • QUESTION: Shale Oil / Shale Gas Development in USA likely to make USA – Net Exporter of Energy ?? Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

  41. Acknowledgement and Special Thanks to the following Organisations for contributing information and statistical data: • Clarkson Research Services • Baltic Exchange • Drewry Shipping Consultants www.bellshipping.com Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

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