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Empirical Landslide Modeling

Empirical Landslide Modeling. Finn Krogstad UW Forest Engineering May 30, 1990. Overview. Why Empirical Modeling? A simple example Logistic Regression Results. Why Empirical Modeling?. Most landslide models show where landslides will be, but not how many.

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Empirical Landslide Modeling

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  1. Empirical Landslide Modeling Finn Krogstad UW Forest Engineering May 30, 1990

  2. Overview • Why Empirical Modeling? • A simple example • Logistic Regression • Results

  3. Why Empirical Modeling? • Most landslide models show where landslides will be, but not how many. • If we want to evaluate operations or landscape plans, we need to know how many landslides will result from our plan.

  4. A simple example Q: How many landslides will a high hazard area produced? A: Count the fraction that have slid already, and apply this to the proposed action.

  5. Regression • The familiar form • can also be thought of as • Allows any mapable variables of interest • Already coded in ArcInfo • Output in Probability of Landsliding

  6. Hazard Mapping • Using just slope and curvature, we can create a hazard map, much like SMORPH. • This map can guide our design

  7. Operational Assessment • Calculate cell probabilities before and after the operation, subtract, and sum the differences (E(ls)=.364). before after difference

  8. Landscape Evaluation • Same as the Operational evaluation, but on a larger scale.

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