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SUMMIT DIPLOMACY: SOME ‘LESSONS’ FROM HISTORY

SUMMIT DIPLOMACY: SOME ‘LESSONS’ FROM HISTORY. Prof. David Reynolds (Cambridge University) History and Policy Lecture Gresham’s College, 4 June 2013. ON THE WORLD STAGE. TOP LEVEL, HIGH STAKES. BUT ROOTED IN DAILY LIFE. NOT TO MENTION. SO SUMMITRY. Draws on skills we use every day.

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SUMMIT DIPLOMACY: SOME ‘LESSONS’ FROM HISTORY

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  1. SUMMIT DIPLOMACY: SOME ‘LESSONS’ FROM HISTORY Prof. David Reynolds (Cambridge University) History and Policy Lecture Gresham’s College, 4 June 2013

  2. ON THE WORLD STAGE

  3. TOP LEVEL, HIGH STAKES

  4. BUT ROOTED IN DAILY LIFE

  5. NOT TO MENTION . . .

  6. SO SUMMITRY • Draws on skills we use every day. • But the fate of nations hangs on the outcome.

  7. ADVICE FROM THE PAST • ‘It is not easy to see how things could be worsened by a parley at the summit.’ (Winston Churchill, 14 Feb. 1950) • ‘It is far better that we should meet at the summit than at the brink.’(John F. Kennedy, 1 Oct. 1959) • ‘It is always the same with these conferences . . . The Great Men don’t know what they are talking about and have to be educated.’ (Alexander Cadogan, Yalta, 6 Feb. 1945) • ‘If great princes have a desire to continue friends, in my judgement they ought never to meet.’ (Philippe de Commines, c. 1490)

  8. BUT VIEWED HISTORICALLY • Leaders did not usually engage in direct negotiation . . .

  9. SECURITYRouen, 1419

  10. STATUSCanossa, 1077

  11. BUREAUCRATIZATION

  12. THE LEADER AS STATESMAN • Essentially a 20th-century idea. • Especially from the 1930s . . .

  13. MADE POSSIBLE BY AIR TRAVEL

  14. MADE NECESSARY BY WMD

  15. MADE INTO HOUSEHOLD NEWS BY THE MASS MEDIA

  16. SINCE THE COLD WAR . . . • Fewer opportunities for dramatic personal interventions . . .

  17. CONSTANT COMMUNICATION

  18. DIVERSIFIED THREATS

  19. INDIVIDUALIZED MEDIA

  20. INSTITUTIONALIZED DIPLOMACY

  21. IN THE 21ST CENTURY • Less scope for personal diplomacy. • But still some ‘lessons’ from history.

  22. 1. KNOW ‘THE OTHER’ • Vienna, June 1961 • Kennedy (b. 1917) • Khrushchev (b. 1894)

  23. 2. THINK POLITICS • Nassau, 1962 • Skybolt → Polaris

  24. 3. BEWARE NODS & WINKS • Blair & Bush • Iraq War, 2002-3

  25. 4. WATCH YOUR STEREOTYPES • Thatcher & Kohl

  26. 5. TEAMWORK • Reagan & Gorbachev • Shultz & Shevardnadze • + Interpreters

  27. 6. PLAY IT LONG • John Major & Albert Reynolds, 1993 • Tony Blair & Bertie Ahern, 1998

  28. HISTORY AND POLICY? • 1. Case studies from the past that may ring bells for current leaders. • 2. A larger sense of process, beyond normal short-termism. • 3. History is not a body of facts. But a way of thinking – ‘thinking in time’.

  29. THINKING IN TIME • The Key Question is . . . • NOT ‘What’s the problem?’ • BUT ‘What’s the story?’ • ‘How did we get into this mess?’ • To help see how to get out of it.

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