DEMOCRATIZATION IN CHINA? THE US, CHINA & THE WTO The stakes …

1. DEMOCRATIZATION IN CHINA? THE US, • CHINA & THE WTO • The stakes … • The ‘long & winding road’: The process of • China’s accession to the WTO • Political consequences of China’s trade liberalization • Debate: ‘Free trade makes free politics’ • Political scenarios for China • Conclusions

2. DEMOCRACY IN CHINA? ‘One evening over dinner in Singapore in March 1992, former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt asked me whether China could become democratic & observe human rights like the West. Choo [LKY’s wife], who sat next to Schmidt, laughed outright at the idea of 1.2 billion Chinese, 30 per cent of them illiterate, voting for a president. Schmidt noted this was her spontaneous reaction to the absurdity of it. I replied that China’s history of over 4000 years was one of dynastic rulers, interspersed with anarchy, foreign conquerors, warlords & dictators. The Chinese people had never experienced a govt based on counting heads instead of chopping them off. Any evolution towards representative govt would be gradual …’ Lee Kuan Yew, Third World to First: The Singapore Story 1965-2000 (Singapore: 2000), p. 548

3. THE STAKES … • If China becomes liberal-democratic (politically ‘Western’): • Chinese citizens will enjoy more civil liberties & political rights • Relations between China & other states are likely to develop more peacefully • The business environment might improve, the economy might grow (even) faster, & China may offer an even bigger & more rapidly growing market. • Some believe the prospects of reunification with Taiwan would improve. However: • Some Chinese fear that China may be weakened & even disintegrate (Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, etc.)

4. THE ‘LONG & WINDING ROAD’: CHINA’S • ACCESSION TO THE WTO • 1986: Application for entry to GATT • 1989: Talks suspended - Tiananmen Square crackdown • 1992: Negotiations resume • 1995: China becomes WTO ‘observer’ • 1998: New impetus to talks after Zhu Rongji becomes PM • 1999: US rejects improved Chinese accession offer (April) • US & China finally agree entry terms (November) • 2000: EU & China agree entry terms • US HOR votes 237-197 to give China PNTR (May) • US Senate also approves PNTR (September) • Entry talks stall over issue of how & when China will implement WTO commitments (28 September)

5. 3. POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FREE TRADE What Bill Clinton thinks China’s WTO accession ‘will increase China’s opening to global forces that will over time empower its people, increase their access to information, expand their contact with the democratic world, & deepen their connections to outside influences & ideas’ The Clinton Administration Statement on Permanent Normal Trade Relations for China (www.chinapntr.gov)

6. 3. POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FREE TRADE What Lori Wallach (US NGO Public Citizens) thinks The Clinton administration’s strategy - ‘the notion that increasing liberalization of the economy would bring about liberalization in human rights, increased democracy, etc. .. has been a total bust. This year, the State Dept. .. noted that conditions in China have deteriorated yet further .. They have finally certified that basically every Chinese democracy activist & labor activist is either in jail or in exile .. So during this period when the free market would allegedly enhance their freedoms, we’ve seen the opposite’ Interview, ‘Lori’s War’, in: Foreign Policy, spring 2000, p. 51

7. 4. FREE TRADE MAKES FREE POLITICS? • Cross-national analysis indicates that trade liberalization • alone does not generate a very strong pressure for • democratization – substantial proportions of GATT/WTO • member states have never been democracies, are no more • than partial democracies, or have experienced periods of • non-democratic government despite belonging to GATT • (See table!) • Indirectly, in as far as contributes to economic development, trade liberalization may contribute to democratization – but trade liberalization is not a guarantor of rising prosperity.

8. 4. ‘FREE TRADE MAKES FREE POLITICS’ (Contd.) • In the 1990s, US pressure on China to democratize declined, if anything – Clinton ‘de-linked’ trade relations with China & human rights issues • With WTO accession and granting of PNTR, US has, forfeited instruments which could hitherto be used against China to promote democratization or political liberalization • China is in any case less vulnerable to US pressure on such issues than probably any other state

9. 5. POLITICAL SCENARIOS FOR CHINA • The Taiwanese/South Korean road * Increasing prosperity leads to increasing & • stable democracy & also ‘good govt’ • The Singaporean road * Increasing prosperity does not bring complete democratization, but at least incr. rule of law • The Filipino road * Trade liberalization brings democratization, but growth is slow & govt ‘poor’

10. 5. POLITICAL SCENARIOS FOR CHINA (Contd.) • The Russian/Indonesian road: * Political crisis destroys regime, but democratization jeopardized by economic dislocation & political disintegration • The Vietnamese road: * Regime survives economic & political crisis, intensifies political repression & suspends economic liberalization • The Chinese road: * Rapid economic growth continues while society remains politically quiescent, despite absence of democratization & only limited rule of law

11. 6. CONCLUSIONS • Taiwanese/South Korean road unlikely – they were/are much more subject to US/Western influence than China • Singaporean road – encouraged by WTO accession, but to bring ‘good (& clean) govt’ to such a vast & still so poor state with such a corrupt administration is Herculean task! • Filipino road – internal & external pressures for democratization too weak, CCP too attached to monopoly of power? • Russian/Indonesian road – smaller threat of disintegration in case of regime ‘implosion’, but scenario in which latter occurs difficult to envisage

12. CONCLUSIONS (Contd.) • Vietnamese road – China is ‘past point of no return’ on economic reforms, ‘reformers’ more likely to slow trade liberalization than be overthrown by economic/ political crisis through economic opening (but NB. Greater future vulnerability to imported crises like that in Asia in 1997-98). • Chinese road – the most probable scenario for the foreseeable future. Best hope for political opening: accession to power of new, Western-educated leaders’ generation? • LKY is very likely right – political liberalization will come, if it comes, probably only very gradually