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Explore the fundamentals and applications of probability theory in various fields, from signal processing to finance and physics. Delve into the history, concepts, and practical implications of probability, including statistical mechanics, quantum mechanics, and biomedicine. Understand key topics such as law of large numbers, central limit theorem, and Gaussian distribution. The syllabus covers essential chapters, exams, assignments, and resources for a thorough understanding of probabilities. Join the course to discover the intriguing world of probabilities in diverse disciplines.
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Introduction to Probabilities Fall 2010 Dept. Electrical Engineering National Tsing Hua University 劉奕汶
What is probability? • Literally, how probable an event is to occur. • We live in a random world • Relative-frequency interpretation • 機率/概率/或然率 • This interpretation is problematic • Involved law of large number • Not all experiments could be repeated • Not all repeating processes have convergent frequency • Axiomatic approach
A bit of History • 3500 B.C., Egyptians used bones to gamble • Since then, dice, playing cards, mahjong, etc. • 15-16th centuries: Italy (Galilei et al.) • 17-18th centuries: Western-central Europe • Pascal, Fermat, Laplace, Poisson, Gauss • Huygens (1629-1695) On Calculations in Games of Chance • 19-20th : Russia • 1900: Hilbert’s 23 problems • 1933: Kolmogorov: probability theory axiomatized
Probability in EE/CS • Signal processing • “Signal” = Random Process • Random because of noise and uncertainty • Machine learning • Natural language processing • Pattern recognition • Communication • Source coding • Channel coding • Modulation and estimation
Probability in Finance/Economics • Investment / Gambling • Portfolio theory • Advertisement / Pricing
Probability in Physics (i) • Statistical mechanics • Equilibrium • Entropy and 2nd law of thermodynamics • Definition of temperature
Probability in Physics (ii) • Quantum mechanics • Schrödinger’s wave function • “Measurement makes reality” • The paradox of Schrödinger’s cat • Einstein’s famous comment
Probability in Biomedicine • Genomics • Proteomics • Neuroscience • Ecology • Epidemiology
Probability and Statistics • Law of Large Number • Central Limit Theorem • Why Gaussian distribution is “Normal” • Counter-example: stock market
Syllabus • Textbook: S. Ghahramani, Fundamentals of Probability: with stochastic processes, 3rd Edition • Chapters 1-3: probability space • Chapters 4-5: discrete random variables • Chapter 6: Continuous random variables • Midterm exam (35%) • Chapters 7: continuous random variables II • Chapters 8: bivariate distributions • Chapter 10-11: advanced topics (Correlations, LLN, CLT, etc) • * Measure theory and axioms of probability • Final exam (35%) • A4 double-side cheat sheet permitted for both exams • 6 homework assignments (30%) • Office hours: Monday 5-6 pm, Rm 704B • Website: http://www.ee.nthu.edu.tw/ywliu/ee3060/
Statistics of last semester’s grades (N = 37) • 期中考:M=51.4,SD=7.9 • 期末考:M=49.3,SD=10.8 • 總成績:M = 78,SD=11 • 36 passed, 1 failed. • 4 scored 90 or above (A+)