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Doing Well….. …. While Doing Good

Doing Well….. …. While Doing Good. Randy Lyon Leon County Smart Growth Tallahassee, Florida June 7, 2006. ULI Senior Fellows myregion.org ULI Statewide Study Xentury City. Powerful Forces of Change. Rapid population growth Predominantly in metropolitan areas Widening income gaps

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Doing Well….. …. While Doing Good

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  1. Doing Well….. …. While Doing Good Randy Lyon Leon County Smart Growth Tallahassee, Florida June 7, 2006

  2. ULI Senior Fellows • myregion.org • ULI Statewide Study • Xentury City

  3. Powerful Forces of Change • Rapid population growth • Predominantly in metropolitan areas • Widening income gaps • Economic crunch • The Paradox of Success

  4. Population Growth • 60+ million new residents in US over next 20 years; 6 million in Florida • Immigration makes up 2/3 of population growth nationally • One of 8 fastest growing countries in the world after China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Congo • HH size shrinking, dramatic need for housing units

  5. Edgeless Cities Exploding • Boston • Saint Louis • Phoenix • San Diego • Orlando • Tallahassee

  6. The Rising Income Tide… Has Failed to Lift All Boats $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 Widening Income Gap Mean Income within Quintiles (constant $1999) Total Households Top Quintile Second from Top Quintile Middle Quintile Second from Bottom Quintile Bottom Quintile

  7. Economic Overview • Rising deficits, higher interest rates • 40 states and most cities have serious budget troubles • Higher state and local taxes of all kinds • Greater gap in housing affordability

  8. The Good Historically high home ownership Greater housing choice Urban renaissance Democratization of mobility The Ugly Unremitting Sprawl Congestion Long commutes Severe affordability challenges The Paradox of Success: Housing

  9. The Good Low interest rates Record productivity Tax cuts The Ugly High federal deficits State and local taxes on the rise Permanent Job losses Dollar devaluation The Paradox of Success: Economy

  10. Unfunded infrastructure • CA Water-- demand exceeds supply by 2010 • Education—turning students away • Roads and transit delayed

  11. Infrastructure Chasing Growth • Las Vegas, Phoenix, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston added 5 million new residents in ’90’s, only 3% transit commuters • So. CA State of Region Report found “region slipping in nearly every performance category related to socio-economic well-being, including income, educational attainment, poverty, etc.”

  12. Metro Area Units of Gov. Chicago 1456 Pittsburgh 858 St. Louis 788 Boston 765 LA 378 New York 201 San Francisco 91 Wash. DC 65 Fractured Governance – Units of Local Government (1997)

  13. Crisis Ahead? • Rapid change, slow planning and decision, fractured governance • Two Americas • Loss of civic engagement • At stake: quality of life

  14. Vision counts, but implementation is priceless

  15. Solutions: Policy Ideas • Strong Regional planning and zoning • Fair share affordable housing tied to public funding of infrastructure • Transit improvements in areas of highest population density • Bonuses/subsidies for urban/town center/village developments • Sales tax revenue sharing

  16. Solutions: Examples at Work • Albuquerque Academy • City Place • Pittsburg • City View • Winter Park Village • NorthLake Park

  17. Think regionally, act locally • Increase regional planning powers • Designate regional growth centers, with funding • Shorten approval times –plan once then build

  18. Regional Density allocations for growth Infrastructure allocations Systems/Network Transit Water Parks Develop centers around transit Local Detailed planning Design issues Density concentrations Specific land uses Mandate or reward fast approvals Reinvent planning and zoning: What’s regional, what’s local?

  19. Fair Share Affordable/Workforce Housing: Mixed income housing works • Localize HOPE VI lessons • Implement LIHTC programs at local levels • Expand inclusionary zoning • Affordable/workforce housing is the largest market demand

  20. Put Transportation $$ Where The People Are • MANAGE existing systems/Fix it First • Encourage Development AROUND transit • Build “smart” roads

  21. Visualize the future • Density • Diversity • Design

  22. Regional enhancements/solutions Mpls/St. Paul, MN Meadowlands, NJ Charlottesville, VA Louisville, KY Norton/Barberton, OH Westminster/Thornton, CO Did you say revenue sharing?

  23. How to Get There? • State legislation, incremental steps, cooperation on special issues, transit, security, MOUs, etc. • Voice of the Not-for-Profits • Leadership from the business community • Chamber of Commerce • Business Alliance • Home Builders/ABC

  24. Tough choices: Opportunity for change • Raise taxes • Manage better • Lower expectations and standard of living • OR ALL OF THE ABOVE!

  25. Conclusions • We are not gaining on the problems • Planning can make a difference • Leadership counts! • Quality of life at stake

  26. “If we don’t get cities right, all our work on crime, education, health care, employment, social exclusion, and improving the economy will be undermined.” Lord Richard Rogers

  27. Our Question • If we knew in 1970 what we know today, how would we have developed differently? • Housing • Retail • Office • How would our policies, plans and projects be different? • Can we do more? • What will they say about us in 2030?

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