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Advanced Nowcasting Capabilities for Enhanced Weather Forecasting

This presentation by Richard L. Carpenter, Jr., Ph.D., from Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., discusses advanced nowcasting capabilities designed to improve weather predictions. The focus is on the MAPLE system, developed at McGill University, and its integration with numerical models (WRF) for optimizing short-term precipitation forecasts. Key topics include precipitation type forecasting, accurate accumulation predictions, and hazardous weather alerting. The objective is to utilize advanced algorithms and weather data, aiming to enhance decision-making in severe weather scenarios.

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Advanced Nowcasting Capabilities for Enhanced Weather Forecasting

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  1. Advanced Nowcasting Capabilities Richard L. Carpenter, Jr., Ph.D., CCM Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. MDSS Stakeholder Meeting – October 2005, Boulder, CO

  2. About Weather Decision Technologies • Founded by research meteorologists in Norman, OK, in 2000 • Work with (and license technology from) research organizations • Advanced uses of weather data and algorithms

  3. Key Weather Questions • When is the (snow, freezing rain, etc.) going to start? • When is it going to stop? • How much will accumulate?

  4. Future Radar: MAPLE • Developed at McGill University (Montreal) • Exclusively licensed by WDT

  5. Future Radar: MAPLE Observed Predicted

  6. Forecast of 2-hour Precip Accumulation Observed Predicted

  7. Comparison of MAPLE with Numerical Model (WRF) Observed Accumulation WRF MAPLE Skill Map

  8. Blending of MAPLE and Models • During the first 4 hours, MAPLE performs better than models • After 4-6 hours, model forecasts are more accurate than MAPLE • WDT is working with McGill to optimally blend MAPLE and WRF Skill  MAPLE better   Models better Kilambi & Zawadzki 2005

  9. Operational MAPLE Forecasts • Using NEXRAD Level II and Canadian radar mosaics • 6 hour forecasts updated every 15 min • 1 km grid

  10. Conditional Precip Type • Precip type (snow, freezing rain, etc.) overlay based on hourly updating numerical model (WRF)

  11. MAPLE Precip Accumulation MAPLE Nowcast MAPLE 4 h Precip Accumulation (also available by type)

  12. Hazardous Weather Alerting 60 min threat of lightning 60 min threat of ¾ and 2 inch hail

  13. Hazardous Weather Alerting ETA/ETD (onset/all-clear) for a given location

  14. High-resolution Numerical Model Forecasts (WRF) National Forecast Mesonet data (e.g., DOT sensors) Regional/Statewide Forecasts of Temperature, Wind, Precip, and Weather 5 km grid

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