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The Evolving Supply and Demand of Skills in the Labour Market

The Evolving Supply and Demand of Skills in the Labour Market. Ilaria Maselli CEPS. In this presentation . Labour demand and supply with respect to education Research question: are there too many or not enough skills?. Evolution of labour demand. Low qualified jobs. Medium skilled jobs.

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The Evolving Supply and Demand of Skills in the Labour Market

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  1. The Evolving Supply and Demand of Skills in the Labour Market Ilaria Maselli CEPS

  2. In this presentation Labour demand and supply with respect to education Research question: are there too many or not enough skills?

  3. Evolution of labour demand Low qualified jobs Medium skilled jobs Job polarisation in EU27, 2000-2010.

  4. ISCO classification Low skilled jobs = cleaners, labourers in construction, manufacturing and transport and food preparation assistants. Medium qualified jobs = plant and machine operators, electrical and electronic trades workers and craft and related trades workers. High profile jobs = managers, professionals, technicians

  5. Labour demand: 3 theories Skill-biased technological change Routinisation hypothesis Globalisation - offshoring

  6. Labour supply: educational expansion High skilled active pop 25-64 Medium skilled active pop 25-64 Low skilled active pop 25-64 EU27, 2000-2010

  7. Demand and Supply wrt Skills EU27, 2000-2010

  8. Demand and Supply wrt Skills EU27, 2010-2020 (CEDEFOP projections)

  9. Demand and Supply wrt Skills

  10. Is there a risk of vertical mismatch?

  11. RISK 1: Enough graduate jobs for graduate workers? Employment rate of high skilled =83% No evidence that employment rate of HS is lower in countries that expanded educ faster

  12. RISK 1: Enough graduate jobs for graduate workers? Yes BUT increase in heterogeneity: For ex: returns from education more differentiated by subject

  13. RISK 2: shortage of low skilled jobs? No Korean scenario: lack of people to take DDD jobs In some countries still more low skilled workers that low skilled jobs => risk of low skilled unemployment high despite educational expansion (EL, IT, PT, MT, DK)

  14. RISK 3: Shrinking middle In Germany has shrunk from 62% to 54% of the population Same in Denmark: 31.5% to 28.6% of the population

  15. Conclusions (1): EU vs countries • EU27 as a whole in equilibrium  • But cross-country differences  • Some countries will continue to deal with low skilled unemployment (Southern + DK) • Others will face a new problem: excess of middle skilled workers => what will they do? - Compete for higher skilled jobs (if possible) - Compete for lower skilled ones

  16. Conclusions (2): shrinking middle Shrinking middle = main looser: What are the Consequences? higher income inequality Over-education Less job satisfaction? What about the financing of welfare?

  17. About NEUJOBS • Large scale research project financed under FP7 (SSH) • Objective = map implications for employment of - Socio-ecological Transition (SET), from industrial to post-industrial and beyond… - Societal transition (ageing, new family structures), key actors in transition (women, elderly, migrants, Roma) - New territorial dynamics (agglomeration and dispersion) - Skills transition (mass higher education, green skills, life-long learning)

  18. To stay in touch with NEUJOBS: • www.neujobs.eu • visit our blog: http://blog-neujobs.eu/ • Fan page on Facebook • Join group on Linkedin

  19. Thank you for the attention

  20. Vertical mismatch: risks Shortage of low skilled workers = ‘Korean scenario’ Low skilled unemployment Middle skilled ‘displacement’ Overqualification of high skilled Equilibrium!

  21. Possible equilibria

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