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Hedging Transaction Exposure. Popescu, Hagi & Associates

Hedging Transaction Exposure. Popescu, Hagi & Associates

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Hedging Transaction Exposure. Popescu, Hagi & Associates

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  1. Hedging Transaction Exposure. Popescu, Hagi & Associates Presented by: Frank Naglieri and Kariuki Ndegwa

  2. Problem • In June 2009, DW ordered Japanese parts valued at JPY 200,000,000. • Delivery is due in two months. • Payment is due within 30 days of delivery. • The exact delivery date could not be guaranteed, but an informal telephone call from Japan stated the expected delivery date to be October 17.

  3. Time Line Parts Ordered worth JPY 200MM Payment due (200MM) Delivery Due Date June ‘09 October 2009 Aug ‘09

  4. Measuring the Transaction Exposure (TE) • Net Transactional Exposure: JPY 200MM * 0.0098290 = $1,965,800.

  5. Range Estimates of Transaction Exposure • Using ad-hoc method: +/- 10% of Net Transactional Exposure $1,965,800 + $196,580 = $2,162,380 $1,965,580 - $196,580 = $1,769,000 • Using sensitivity analysis: Max daily change 3.47% and Min daily change -5.58% from Jan 2001 $1,965,800 * (1 + 0.0347) = $ 2,034,013 $1,965,800 * (1 – 0.0558) = $1,856,108

  6. Range Estimates of Transaction Exposure • Another sensitivity analysis: Max Daily Forex Rate 0.011586 and Min Daily Forex Rate 0.007421 JPY200,000,000 * 0.011586 = $2,317,200 JPY200,000,000 * 0.007421 = $1,484,200 • Using random forex rates with a normal distribution

  7. PHLX Options • 1 options contract in USD/JPY = JPY 100MM • Therefore JPY200MM / JPY100MM = 200 contracts are needed to hedge the short position. • For OTC options: (0.0098 strike price) 0.05521 * 200MM = $110,420 (0.0096 strike price) 0.06562 * 200MM = $131,240 • For Exchange Traded Options: (0.0098 strike price) 0.05978 * 200MM = $119,560 (0.0096 strike price) 0.07009 * 200MM = $140,180 • OTC options are cheaper than PHLX options.

  8. Forward Contract vs. Options Hedge Cash Flow from Forward Contract Cash Flow from OTC Call Options

  9. Nov 17 OTC Call .0096 6 mnth Forward Contract USD 1.9606MM USD 0.11042MM ST K

  10. Recommendation • I would recommend that Mr. Mirman to use the OTC options for the following reasons: • The expiry date of the OTC options match exactly the date the company needs to make payment to their supplier ( November 17th 2009) • The OTC options guarantee that the company does not pay more than (0.0096 * JPY 200MM - $110,420) while allowing the company to also benefit from the upside in case the Yen declines relative to the USD.

  11. Spot Rate .008985 USD/JPY Forward Rates 1 month - .0089845 3 month - .008985 U.S. Int. Rates: < 2 months Deposit Rate: .2909 Borrowing Rate: .3165 CME Dec. Futures .008987 PHLX Dec JPY Options – Nov. JPY DecCallsPuts .0096 .00055 .00668 .0098 .00030 .00843 .0100 .00015 .10288 PHLX Dec JPY Options – June JPY DecCallsPuts .0096 .07009 .04308 .0098 .05978 .05261 .0100 .05058 .06325 OTC JPY Options – Exp. Nov. 17 Strike PriceCallsPuts .0096 .06562 .03921 .0098 .05521 .04866 It is now November 6th and the Parts were delivered October 11th. Payment due November 11th

  12. Effective Total Cost in USD if we had advised… • 3-month Forward Contract • Using December Futures • Left the Position Open • Using the OTC JPY Option • Using PHLX JPY Dec Options

  13. Effective Cost of Using 3 Month Forward June 6th Sept 6th 3 Month Forward: 200M JPY x .008985 = $1,797,000 Sept 6th Dec 6th - Rollover 3 Month Forward 200M JPY x .008985 = $1,797,000 Using 3 month forward contracts between June and September and then rolling it over again the cost is a zero sum and the hedge is perfect. June 6th Sept 6th 3 Month Forward: 200M JPY x .008985 = $1,797,000 Sept 6th Oct 6th - 1 Month Forward Contract 200M JPY x .0089845 = $1,796,900 USD Oct 6th Nov. 6th - Rollover 1 Month Forward Contract 200M JPY x .0089845 = $1,796,900 USD The difference in USD we would have to pay ultimately is: $1,797,000 - $1,796,900 = $100 in costs

  14. Effective Cost of Using December Futures Dec. Futures (Nov. Info) –200M JPY x .008987 = $1,797,400 USD Dec. Futures (June Info)– 200M JPY x .009873 = $1,974,600 USD Nov. Spot Rate–200M JPY x .008985 = $1,797,000 USD Dec Futures (Nov. Info) vs. Nov. Spot Rate: $1,797,400 - $1,797,000 = $400 USD in Costs Dec Futures (Nov. Info) vs. Dec. Futures (June Info): $1,974,600 USD - $1,797,400 USD = $177,200 USD in Costs Using the December Futures given to us in November or June is not a cost effective hedging tool. Compared to the November Rate the December Futures given to us in November would cost an extra $400 of USD in order to hedge the 200M JPY. If you compared the December Futures given to us in June and November you would see there is a $177,200 of extra USD we would pay to hedge the 200M JPY.

  15. Effective Cost of Leaving Position Open June Conversion November Conversion ( 200M JPY * .009829) – (200M JPY * .008985) = 1,952,800 – 1,797,000 = ($168,800)USD Costs If we let the exchange rates take their course we would be better off waiting to convert the funds in November rather than June because the Spot Rate is more favorable in November vs. June.

  16. OTC JPY Options – Exp. Nov 17 Strike PriceCallsPuts .0096 .06562 .03921 .0098 .05521 .04866 We assume we bought the call back in June with the Strike Price of .0096. Since the Spot Rate is favorable compared to the Strike Price we shouldn’t exercise the call. So our costs would be the premium of buying the call back in June but not exercising the option. 200M JPY * .06562 = 13,124,000/100 = ($131,240) USD Costs Effective Cost of Using OTC JPY Option

  17. PHLX Dec JPY Options – From Nov. JPY DecCallsPuts .0096 .00055 .00668 .0098 .00030 .00843 .0100 .00015 .10288 PHLX Dec JPY Options – From June JPY DecCallsPuts .0096 .07009 .04308 .0098 .05978 .05261 .0100 .05058 .06325 We still assume we buy a call option at the .0096 in June. Since in both cases we wouldn't exercise the option since the Spot Rate is more favorable than the Strike Price we would compare the 2 premiums we pay for not exercising the calls in June and November. June Premium 200M JPY * .07009 = $14,018,000/100 = ($140,180) USD Costs November Premium 200M JPY * .00055 = ($110,000) USD Costs If we used the Dec. option in November instead of June we would have saved $40,180 in premium payments. $140,180 - $ 110,000 = $40,180 Effective Cost of Using JPY Dec Option