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Chinese Intervention Dilemma: Debating Options in Myanmar

Explore the debate on Chinese intervention in Myanmar, analyzing different intervention options and the relevance of global perspectives to Beijing and Myanmar. Delve into the strategic cultural paradigms influencing intervention discussions and consider the future implications.

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Chinese Intervention Dilemma: Debating Options in Myanmar

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  1. Inside/Outside: 60 Years of Chinese Politics HKUST: 20-21 August 2009 Beijing and the Myanmar Problem Ian Holliday

  2. Introduction • Rising China: what to do about Myanmar? • Intervention • Arguing about intervention • Arguing about intervention in Myanmar • Chinese intervention in Myanmar • Arguing about Chinese intervention in Myanmar • Conclusion

  3. Intervention Options confronting both states and non-states: Coercive External Belligerent engagement Internal Aggressive pressure Non-coercive External Consensual engagement Internal Discursive pressure

  4. Arguing about intervention • Global debate still inspired by the West • How relevant to Beijing and Myanmar? • (a) Relevant because China is now mainstream • (b) Not relevant because of distinct tradition • Johnston on Ming strategic culture • Dominant operational paradigm: hard realpolitik • Recessive symbolic paradigm: Confucian-Mencian • Both remain visible today • They form important links into mainstream debate

  5. Arguing about intervention in Myanmar • Much debate about intervention • 1988-1990-2007-2008-2009 • But little consensus • Belligerent engagement: few proponents • Aggressive pressure: US, EU, MNCs • Consensual engagement: UN, some INGOs • Discursive pressure: ASEAN

  6. Chinese intervention in Myanmar • Tribute system across many centuries • Some significant tensions 1949-88 • Common position 1988-89 and thereafter • Some growing discord in recent years • Internal issues in Myanmar • Internal issues in China • External issues beyond bilateral relations • Chinese intervention remains low level • Both state and non-state

  7. Arguing about Chinese intervention in Myanmar • Should China enhance its intervention? • Realpolitik reasons? • Confucian-Mencian reasons? • Socialization reasons? • What could Beijing do? • Short-term: Boost respect for global norms • Medium-term: Facilitate multiparty talks? • Long-term: Keep the peace?

  8. Conclusion • Hard realpolitik strategic culture in China • No permissible challenge to core interests • But is Myanmar that kind of issue? • Can other considerations apply? • Key event: 2010 general election • Wait and see attitude on many sides • Thereafter, both China and the wider world may need to recalibrate their positions

  9. Thank you! Thank you for your attention!

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