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Diversion Rate Estimate

Diversion Rate Estimate. Diversion Rate Estimate. Program Implementation. One Indicator of Diversion Program Success. Three Primary Components of Measurement System. DISPOSAL REPORTING. ADJUSTMENT METHOD. BASE YEAR. BASE YEAR.

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Diversion Rate Estimate

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  1. Diversion Rate Estimate Diversion Rate Estimate Program Implementation One Indicator of Diversion Program Success

  2. Three Primary Components of Measurement System DISPOSAL REPORTING ADJUSTMENT METHOD BASE YEAR

  3. BASE YEAR • The base year is the foundation for diversion rate measurement • An accurate base year is critical for accurate diversion rate estimates • Each jurisdiction (city, county, or regional agency) is required to establish a base year • Over 250 jurisdictions updated their base years since original 1990 studies

  4. ADJUSTMENT METHOD More People? More Jobs? More Sales?

  5. ADJUSTMENT METHOD • Statute required the Board to develop an adjustment method • The Board adopted the method developed by a working group • Uses readily available data to keep costs low • The adjustment method estimates changes in waste generation due to changes in population and the economy • without having to measure both diversion and disposal in the measurement year • Saves jurisdictions time and money • Depends on anaccurate base year

  6. Adjustment Method Premise 1990 200X 25 PRC 41780.1 & 41780.2

  7. Residential vs. Non-Residential • Measurement year residential and non-residential generation amounts are estimated separately • Affected differently by changes in population and the economy. • Population is used only with the residential estimate. • The residential and non-residential estimates are added to find total measurement year generation tonnage.

  8. Adjustment Method Formula Automated tools do this for jurisdictions! • Adjustment Method Formula Steps: • (1) IM= Inflation Multiplier: CPIB/CPIR • (2) CTR= Corrected Reporting—Year Taxable Sales in Dollars: TR x IM • (3) NRAF = Non—Residential Adjustment Factor: (ER/EB + (CTR/TB)/2 • (4) RAF = Residential Adjustment Factor: (PR/PB) + NRAF/2 • (5)Estimated Reporting Year Generation: (RWGB x RAF) + (NRWGB x NRAF) • Glossary of Terminology: • RWGB=Base-Year Residential Waste Generation in Tons • NRWGB=Base-Year Non-Residential Waste Generation in Tons • PR=Reporting-Year Population in Persons • PB=Base-Year Population in Persons • ERLF=Reporting-Year Labor Force Employment in Jobs • ERIN=Reporting-Year Industry Employment in Jobs • EBLF=Base-Year Labor Force Employment in Jobs • EBIN=Base-Year Industry Employment in Jobs • TR=Reporting-Year Taxable Sales in Dollars • TB=Base-Year Taxable Sales in Dollars • CPIR=Reporting-Year Consumer Price Index • CPIB=Base-Year Consumer Price Index

  9. Adjustment Factors(and Sources) • Population -(CA Department of Finance) • Employment -(CA Employment Development Department) • Taxable Sales -(CA Board of Equalization) • Inflation Index -(provided on another slide)

  10. Adjustment Factor Trends This graph shows percent change in population, employment, inflation-adjusted taxable sales, and waste disposal for California, 1991-2004 (base year = 1990). 

  11. Taxable Sales Inflation Adjustment Factors (and sources) • Inflation Adjustment Factor adjusts taxable sales amounts for inflation • Consumer Price Index (CPI) -(CA Department of Industrial Relations) • Taxable Sales Deflator Index (TSDI) -(CA State Board of Equalization) Note: Board Item in September 2005 authorized future use as alternative factor Original Factor Alternative Factor starting With 2004 rates

  12. Comparison of Inflation Indexes: CPI vs. TSDI

  13. New Employment Adjustment Factors • Employment Development Department total employment by jurisdiction • for 2005 and subsequent years is now available • May be used to calculate diversion rates when using a 2005 or later base year 

  14. Web Tools Perform Adjustment Method Calculations

  15. Adjustment Factor Impact vs Base Year on Diversion Rates Ridgecrest Diversion Rate 2006 Diversion Calculation Input Rate Estimate • Double B-Y Generation Tons 82% Halve B-Y Generation Tons 27% • Double City Population % Growth 64% Halve City Population % Growth 64% •  Double County Employment % Growth 67% Halve County Employment % Growth 62% • Double City Taxable Sales % Growth 69% Halve City Taxable Sales % Growth 60% • Double TSDI % Growth 62% Halve TSDI % Growth 65%

  16. Diversion Rate Estimate Diversion Rate Estimate Program Implementation One Indicator of Diversion Program Success

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