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Laws of Cyberspace

Laws of Cyberspace. Jim Gray Microsoft Research with help from Gordon Bell, Nathan Myrvold and laws by Bell, Moore, Gates, Joy, Gilder, Grove, Grosch, Metcalf, Mryvold, Talk presented 10/9/98 at International University, Bruchsal Germany

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Laws of Cyberspace

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  1. Laws of Cyberspace Jim GrayMicrosoft Research with help from Gordon Bell, Nathan Myrvold and laws by Bell, Moore, Gates, Joy, Gilder, Grove, Grosch, Metcalf, Mryvold, Talk presented 10/9/98 at International University, BruchsalGermany http://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/talks/Laws_of_Cyberspace.ppt

  2. Computer Industry Laws (rules of thumb) • Metcalf’s law • Moore’s First Law • Bell’s Computer Classes (7 price tiers) • Bell’s Platform Evolution • Bell’s Platform Economics • Bill’s Law • Software Economics • Nathan’s 4 Laws of Software • Gilder’s Law of the Telcosom. • Grove’s law (1 and 2) • Moore’s second law • Is Info-Demand Infinite? • The Death of Grosch’s Law

  3. 1. We get more

  4. 2. New overtakes old

  5. 3. Things get cheaper

  6. Old Old New New 4. Newer & cheaper wins?

  7. Metcalf’s LawNetwork Utility = Users2 • How many connections can it make? • 1 user: no utility • 1K users: a few contacts • 1M users: many on net • 1B users: everyone on net • That is why the Internet is so “hot” • Exponential benefit

  8. 1GB 128MB 1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB) 8MB 1MB 128KB 8KB 1980 1990 2000 1970 bits: 1K 4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M 256M Moore’s First Law • XXX doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year • Micro Processor speeds • chip density • Magnetic disk density • Communications bandwidthWAN bandwidth approaching LANs • Exponential Growth: • The past does not matter • 10x here, 10x there, soon you're talking REAL change. • PC costs decline faster than any other platform • Volume & learning curves • PCs will be the building bricks of all future systems

  9. $/MB of DRAM 1000000 10000 100 1 1970 1980 1990 2000 Bumps in the Moore’s Law Road • DRAM: • 1988: US Anti-Dumping rules • 1993-1995: ?? price flat • Magnetic Disk • 1965-1989: 10x/decade • 1989-1996: 4x/3year! 100X/decade $/MB of DISK 10,000 100 1 .01 1970 1980 1990 2000

  10. National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size)

  11. National Storage Technology (disks) Roadmap (size, density, speed) 100,000 3.5" Cap. (MBytes) Density (Kbpsi) 1.3" Cap. (MBytes) 10,000 1,000 100 Data Rate (MBps) 10 1 1995 2000 2005

  12. Gordon Bell’s 1975 VAX planning model... He didn’t believe it! System Price = 5 x 3 x .04 x memory size/ 1.26 (t-1972) K$ 5x: Memory is 20% of cost 3x:DEC markup .04x: $ per byte He didn’t believe: The projection 500$ machine He couldn’t comprehend implications Costs declined > 20% Single user systems didn’t come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs VAX ran out of address bits!

  13. Gordon Bell’s Seven Price Tiers • 10$: wrist watch computers • 100$: pocket/ palm computers • 1,000$: portable computers • 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) • 100,000$: departmental computers (closet) • 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house) • 10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle) SuperServer: Costs more than 100,000 $ “Mainframe” Costs more than 1M$ Must be an array of processors, disks, tapes comm ports

  14. Mainframes (central) Minis (dep’t.) Log Price WSs PCs (personals) ?? Time Bell’s Evolution of Computer Classes Technology enable two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8 1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

  15. Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Body Continent Region/ Intranet Cars… phys. nets Home… buildings Campus World Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

  16. 3 1 MM 10 nano-second ram 10 microsecond ram 10 millisecond disc 10 second tape archive Many little beat few big $1 million $10 K $100 K Pico Processor Micro Nano 10 pico-second ram 1 MB Mini Mainframe 10 0 MB 1 0 GB 1 TB 1 00 TB 1.8" 2.5" 3.5" 5.25" 1 M SPEC marks, 1TFLOP 106 clocks to bulk ram Event-horizon on chip VM reincarnated Multi-program cache, On-Chip SMP 9" 14" • Smoking, hairy golf ball • How to connect the many little parts? • How to program the many little parts? • Fault tolerance?

  17. units 100000 10000 $ 1000 100 Price (K$) Volume (K) 10 App price 1 0.1 0.01 WS WS Browser Browser Mainframe Mainframe Computer type Gordon Bell’s Platform Economics Traditional computers: Custom or Semi-Custom high-tech and high-touch New computers: high-tech and no-touch

  18. Software Economics: Bill’s Law • Bill Joy’s law (Sun): Don’t write software for less than 100,000 platforms. @10M$ engineering expense, 1,000$ price • Bill Gate’s law:Don’t write software for less than 1,000,000 platforms. @10M$ engineering expense, 100$ price • Examples: • UNIX vs NT: 3,500$ vs 500$ • Oracle vs SQL-Server: 100,000$ vs 6,000$ • No Spreadsheet or Presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/... • Commoditization of base Software & Hardware

  19. Microsoft: 9 B$ Profit 24% R&D 16% Tax 13% SG&A 34% Product&Service 13% Oracle: 3 B$ Intel 16 B$ IBM: 72 B$ Profit 15% R&D 8% R&D 9% Profit 6% Profit R&D 8% 22% Tax Tax 7% 5% SG&A 11% SG&A SG&A 22% Product& Services 26% Tax 43% Product&Service 59% 12% Product&Service 47% Software Economics • An engineer costs about 150 k$/year • R&D gets [5%…15%] of budget • Need [3M$…1M$] revenue per engineer

  20. Example Function Operation AT&T Integration EDS Applications SAP Middleware Oracle Baseware Microsoft Systems Compaq Intel & Seagate Silicon & Oxide Grove's LawThe New Computer Industry • Horizontal integration is new structure • Each layer picks best from lower layer. • Desktop (C/S) market • 1991: 50% • 1995: 75%

  21. Bytes/$ DRAM Doubling time 964 days Growth rate 30% per year

  22. Nathan’s 1st Law of Software Software is a gas! It expands to fit the container it is in!

  23. Windows NT Lines of Code 100,000,000 Doubling time 866 days Growth rate 33.9% per year 10,000,000 1,000,000 7/92 2/93 8/93 3/94 10/94 4/95 11/95 6/96 12/96 6/97

  24. Browser Code Growth (MB vs time) 100 Doubling time 216 days Growth rate 221% per year 10 1 2/95 5/95 8/95 11/95 3/96 6/96 9/96 12/96 3/97 6/97

  25. Nathan’s 2nd Law of Software Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law • Initial growth is rapid - like gas expanding (like browser) • Eventually, limited by hardware (like NT) • Bring any processor to its knees, just before the new model is out

  26. Nathan’s 3rd Law of Software Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible • That’s why people buy new hardware - economic motivator • That’s why chips get faster at same price, instead of cheaper • Will continue as long as there is opportunity for new software

  27. Nathan’s 4th Law of Software Software is only limited by human ambition & expectation • It’s impossible to have enough • New algorithms • New applications and new users • New notions of what is cool

  28. Of course not! The Software Crisis! • Von Neumann had trouble • Software is always in “crisis” • Is there some limit to complexity? • Will software ever grow up? • Will the crisis ever end?

  29. The Perpetual Crisis • Panacea solutions • High level languages • Object oriented programming • Component software, ... • Benefits absorbed by rising expectations • Software will never be easy • Somebody will push the boundary

  30. The Ultimate Computer • Nathan’s Prognosis • Learning more about the brain every day • AI will happen • Computers with same power in 20 to 30 years • Brain has no Moore’s Law

  31. Gilder’s Telecosom Law: 3x bandwidth/year for 25 more years • Today: • 10 Gbps per channel • 4 channels per fiber: 40 Gbps • 32 fibers/bundle = 1.2 Tbps/bundle • In lab 3 Tbps/fiber (400 x WDM) • In theory 25 Tbps per fiber • 1 Tbps = USA 1996 WAN bisection bandwidth 1 fiber = 25 Tbps

  32. Microsoft DCOM based on OSF-DCE Technology DCOM and ActiveX extend it UNIX International Open software Foundation (OSF) ODBC XA / TX Object Management Group (OMG) NT OSF DCE DCE RPC GUIDs IDL DNS Kerberos Solaris COM CORBA God Loves Standards: That’s why he made so many of them. 1985 X/Open 1990 1995 Open Group COM

  33. $10,000 $1,000 $100 M$ / Fab Line $10 $1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Moore’s Second Law • The Cost of Fab Lines Doubles Every Generation (3 years) • Money Limit:hard to imagine 10 B$ line 20 B$ line 40 B$ line • Physical limit: • Quantum Effectsat 0.25 micron now 0.05 micron seems hard 12 years, 3 generations • Lithograph: need Xray below 0.13 micron

  34. Constant Dollars vs Constant Work • Constant Work: • One SuperServer can do all the world’s computations. • Constant Dollars: • The world spends 10% on information processing • Computers are moving from 5% penetration to 50% • 300 B$ to 3T$ • We have the patent on the byte and algorithm

  35. Computer Industry Laws (rules of thumb) • Metcalf’s law • Moore’s First Law • Bell’s Computer Classes (7 price tiers) • Bell’s Platform Evolution • Bell’s Platform Economics • Bill’s Law • Software Economics • Nathan’s 4 Laws of Software • Gilder’s Law of the Telcosom. • Grove’s law (1 and 2) • Moore’s second law • Is Info-Demand Infinite? • The Death of Grosch’s Law

  36. “ Vannevar Bush c1945 ” There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing complicated things. memex … stores all his books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibility Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia Speech to text Head mounted camera, dry photography “ ” “ ” “ ” ” “

  37. Kinds Of Information Processing Point-to-Point Broadcast lecture concert conversation money Net work Immediate book newspaper mail Time Shifted Data Base Its ALL going electronic Immediate is being stored for analysis (so ALL database) Analysis & Automatic Processing are being added

  38. Why Put Everything in Cyberspace? Point-to-Point OR Broadcast Low rent min $/byte Shrinks time now or later Shrinks space here or there Automate processing knowbots Network Immediate OR Time Delayed Locate Process Analyze Summarize Data Base

  39. Databases: Information At Your Fingertips™ Information Network™Knowledge Navigator™ • All information will be in an online database (somewhere) • You might record everything you • read: 10MB/day, 400 GB/lifetime (8 tapes today) • hear: 400MB/day, 16 TB/lifetime (3 tapes/year today) • see: 1MB/s, 40GB/day, 1.6 PB/lifetime (maybe someday) • Data storage, organization, and analysis is a challenge. • That is what databases are about • DBs do a good job on “records” • Now working on text, spatial, image, and sound. • This needs lots of PROCESSING too.

  40. Database Store ALL Data Types • The Old World: • Millions of objects • 100-byte objects • The New World: • Billions of objects • Big objects (1MB) • Objects have behavior (methods) People Name Address David NY Mike Berk Paperless office Library of congress online All information online entertainment publishing business WWW & Internet Information Network, Knowledge Navigator, Information at your fingertips Won Austin People Name Voice Address Papers Picture NY David Mike Berk Won Austin

  41. Magnetic Storage Cheaper than Paper • File Cabinet: cabinet (4 drawer) 250$ paper (24,000 sheets) 250$ space (2x3 @ 10$/ft2) 180$ total 700$ 3 ¢/sheet • Disk: disk (4 GB =) 800$ ASCII: 2 m pages 0.04 ¢/sheet (80x cheaper) • Image: 200 k pages 0.4 ¢/sheet (8x cheaper) • Store everything on disk

  42. New Market product finds customers No Product No Customers hard VeryHard Old Market hard Boring Competitve Slow Growth Customers find product New Technology Old Technology Crossing the Chasm

  43. Billions of Clients • Every device will be “intelligent” • Doors, rooms, cars, ... • Computing will be ubiquitous

  44. Billions of Clients Need Millions of Servers • All clients are networked to servers • may be nomadic or on-demand • Fast clients want faster servers • Servers provide • data, • control, • coordination • communication Clients mobile clients fixed clients Servers server super server Super Servers Large Databases High Traffic shared data

  45. 2x $ is 4x performance 1,000 MIPS 32 $ 2x $ is 2x performance 1 MIPS 1 $ .03$/MIPS 1,000 MIPS 1 MIPS 1,000 $ 1 $ The Parallel Law of Computing • Grosch's Law: • Parallel Law: • Needs • Linear Speedup and Linear Scaleup • Not always possible

  46. “The mainframe is dead!… and for sure this time!” Mainframe PRICE Server PC

  47. Useful Aphorisms • There are no silver bullets.Fred Brooks • There is no such thing as a heterogeneous system.Butler Lampson • You know you have a distributed system when a computer you have never heard of prevents yours from working.Leslie Lamport • Hubris: the Greek word for “second system.”Bob Stewart • Software is like entropy, it weighs nothing, it is hard to understand, and it always increases.Norman Augustine

  48. Cluster of PCs Scaleable SystemsBOTH SMP and Cluster Grow Up with SMP 4xP6 is now standard Grow Out with ClusterCluster has inexpensive parts

  49. SMPs Have Advantages • Single system image easier to manage easier to program threads in shared memory, disk, net • 4x SMP is commodity • Software capable of 16x • Problems: • > 4 not commodity • scale-down problem (starter systems expensive)

  50. Clusters Have Advantages • Clients and Servers made from the same stuff. • Inexpensive: • Built with commodity components • Fault tolerance: • Spare modules mask failures • Modular growth • grow by adding small modules

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