1 / 12

Zirahuén Villamar, FES Mexico

Mexico’s Economy – A Quick Overview Input to the Conference „Union Coordination in the Automobile Industry – Building Briges“ Mexico City September 30 th - October 3 rd , 2013. Zirahuén Villamar, FES Mexico.

cargan
Télécharger la présentation

Zirahuén Villamar, FES Mexico

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Mexico’sEconomy – A Quick OverviewInput to the Conference „Union Coordination in the Automobile Industry – Building Briges“Mexico City September 30th - October 3rd, 2013 Zirahuén Villamar, FES Mexico September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  2. Mexico: A Big Economy, an Unbalanced Society GDP Size (2012) Householdand Personal Income (2010) A Middle-ClassNation? … not so actually. Source: NationalInstitute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI)http://www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/contenidos/espanol/prensa/Boletines/Boletin/Comunicados/Especiales/2013/junio/comunica6.pdf Source: World Bank http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf ClassHouseoholdPeople% of total Upper Middle Low September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  3. Economic Performance – The Quest for Stability and... • After a traumatic and volatile 80s decade, a new culture of economicstability • Big nationaleffortstogainexternalcredibility in orderto set foundationsforeconomicactivitieswithinthe North American integrationprocess • Reformsforthe new Mexicaneconomy • NAFTAentersintoforce in January 1st 1994 • Greaterrole of marketforcesand privateactors, lesserforStatepolicies and publicplayers and interventions • A bigopeningtoWorldeconomy: goods, services and finances • Credibilitymeantstability: • Inflation (Single aim, autonomous Central Bank) • Publicfinances (Zero deficit) • Exchange rate (rather free flotation) • Financialcrisis in 1995 (Tequilaeffect), withfurthereffectsonthereal economythefollowingyears • A decouplingnationaleconomy: thosesectors and activities(fewregions and players as well) linkedtothe NAFTA and those (most of regions and population) not in the NAFTA orbit September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  4. Economic Performance – … the Unwanted but Logical Result: Low Growth Rationale • Afterthesecond trauma of 1995 crisis, the culture of stability and equilibriawasreinforced • Furtherreforms in publicfinances, monetaryfundamentals and more free tradeagreements • In ordertofulfillsuchgoals, littleornone chances foreconomicpublicpolicieswereleft Results • Mediocre GDP growth, quite belowpotentialcalculations • Real 30-year-average: 2% growth • Exchange ratebenefitsexports of particular goods and lots of imports, butitdoesn’tfostertheinternalmarket 2008-2013 • Whenthe crisis arose, therewereno countercyclicalmeassuresavailable • In 2009 Mexicogottheworst GDP performance in Latin America • Therecovery has beenweak • Updatedforecasts are getting more and more pessimisticfortheupcomingyears • Source: OrganizationforEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/oecd-economic-surveys-mexico-2013_eco_surveys-mex-2013-en#page16 September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  5. Poverty – A Vulnerabilities Approach Multimensional,2012 Data Deprivations Education Health Services Social Security Quality and Spaces of the DwellingBasic Household Services Access to food Results 45.5% of population living in poverty (53.3 mill) Modererately poor: 37.7% of population, income under $180 usd / month (urban) or $115 usd /month (rural) (41.8 mill) Extremely poor: 9.8% of population, income under $86 usd /month (urban) or $62 usd / month (rural) (11.5mill) • Source: National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL) http://www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/contenidos/espanol/prensa/Boletines/Boletin/Comunicados/Especiales/2013/junio/comunica6.pdf September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  6. Labour – Not a Matter of Unemployment… People at work Unemploymentrate Structuralunemploymentisbelow6% Evenduringtheworstyear of the crisis (2009), thisnumberwasthepeak Latest data (August 2013) shows a 4.78% • Total population: 118mill. (ca.) • Economically Active Population: 52 mill. (ca.) • Workingpopulation: 49mill. (ca.) • Source: NationalInstitute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI)http://www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/contenidos/espanol/prensa/boletines/boletin/Comunicados/Especiales/2012/Diciembre/comunica3.pdf • Source: El Economista, September 20th, 2013 http://eleconomista.com.mx/industrias/2013/09/20/desempleo-cede-su-menor-nivel-seis-meses September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  7. Labour– …butof Informal Employment Informal Employment • Around 60% of employment is informal: 29 mill. • Much of the employment growth has been in informal jobs • It means people (workers and their families) with no social protection • Low added-value sectors/activities • Many workers are self-employed • Geographical characteristics: Informal Employment is concentrated in Southern and Center States September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  8. Productivity Working a lot… …because of lowProductivity As a whole, Mexico has thelowestLabourProductivityamong OECD countries Total Factor Productivity, has actuallydecreasednearly 10% comparedto 1991 In some particular fields, Productivityissimilar toothereconomies Thisnationaldifferencesunderlinethedisparities, whethergeographicalorbyincome What • People in Mexico work 2,250 hours a year, more than the OECD average of 1,776 hours. • 29% of employees work very long hours, much more than the OECD average of 9% Why • Low salaries forcepeopletofindanotherjobtocompensatetheirincomes • High number and hours of unpaidactivitiesto be performed • Lowproductivityeconomicactivities (informal sector) • Source: OrganizationforEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/mexico/and http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932708674 • Source: OrganizationforEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932706546 September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  9. Low and StagnatedProductivity • In thelastdecade, thenationalaverageLabourProductivity has decreased • Ups and downs are duetotheeconomiccycle: all in all, they are recoveriestocertainlevelsbutnot true growth • A significantpartforlowgrowth of GDP liesonthisreason LabourProductivityIndex GDP Index WorkingPopulationIndex • Source: NationalInstitute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI) http://www.stps.gob.mx/bp/secciones/conoce/areas_atencion/areas_atencion/web/productividad/Aspectos.pdf September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  10. Labourcosts Features • In ordertoattractforeigninvestments and tofoster local competitivinessMexican labor costshaveconstantlydecreasedcomparedtothose of otheremerging industrial countriescompetitors (vr.gr. China and Brazil) • Thistrend has itsoriginsnotonly in diminishingMexicancostsbyitself (flexibilization of thelabourmarketregulation) butalso in theimprovements of othercountries’ salaries Effects • Little orinexistentoptionsfor an internalmarketdriveneconomicgrowth • A robustracetothebottombehavior • Source: OrganizationforEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/oecd-economic-surveys-mexico-2013_eco_surveys-mex-2013-en#page16 September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  11. TheReforms The new Government (2012-2018) and thePactforMexico • Great expectations • Political, economical and social agreementamongmainPoliticalParties Reforms • LabourLaw (2012, before new Governmenttook office) • Education (passedonAugust 2013) • Finances and Banking (passedonSeptember 2013) • Energy (Oil and Electricity) (beingdisscussednow) • Fiscal (beingdiscussednow) Programmes • CruzadeagainstHunger(Ministries and Agencies co-ordination) • Democratization of Productivity(NationalDevelopmentPlan’sGoal) • FormalizingEmploymentProgramme(part of the Fiscal Reform) September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

  12. Thankyou!  zirahuen.villamar@fesmex.org September 2013 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Mexico

More Related