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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 13, 2017. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 13, 2017 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, slight to heavy rainfall deficits remain over parts of southeastern, eastern to northeastern parts of Australia, as well as over Papua New Guinea and over small parts of southeastern China. However, rainfall situation is generally better in western Australia, particularly in the northern region. Over India, the longer term 180 days deficits continues to stay over the southern states particularly Tamilnadu.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall was above normal over parts of southern Afghanistan, northeastern India, Bangladesh and large part of southeast Asia, except Papua New Guinea. Large parts of northern Australia are experiencing rainfall deficits at various levels..
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, the rainfall over much of the region was much below normal (particularly far northern Australia). In the Indian Ocean, tropical cyclone Enawo dumped heavy rains in Madagascar early in past week. Regions surrounding the far northern Bay of Bengal also received large rainfall amounts on the east side of +ve PVA and associated moisture from the head Bay.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes 180 days deficit… Severe drought The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, slight to heavy rainfall deficits remain over parts of southeastern, eastern to northeastern parts of Australia, as well as over Papua New Guinea and over small parts of southeastern China. However, rainfall situation is generally better in western Australia, particularly in the northern region. Over India, the longer term 180 days deficits continues to stay over the southern states particularly Tamilnadu. For the past 30 days the rainfall was above normal over parts of southern Afghanistan, northeastern India, Bangladesh and large part of southeast Asia, except Papua New Guinea. Large parts of northern Australia are experiencing rainfall deficits at various levels.. In this past week, the rainfall over much of the region was much below normal (particularly far northern Australia). In the Indian Ocean, tropical cyclone Enawo dumped heavy rains in Madagascar early in past week. Regions surrounding the far northern Bay of Bengal also received large rainfall amounts on the east side of +ve PVA and with associated moisture from the head Bay. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting a mixed rainfall pattern over east Asia, with particularly less rainfall over northern Australia in the first week and slightly more in the second week.
