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PNWA International Trends For Northwest Grain Markets

PNWA International Trends For Northwest Grain Markets. By Amer Y. Badawi Vice President Columbia Grain International, Inc. Topics. Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Grain Market Review Transportation Trends & Challenges. GLOBAL SEABORNE DRY BULK TRADE. Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade. Iron ore

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PNWA International Trends For Northwest Grain Markets

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  1. PNWA International Trends For Northwest Grain Markets By Amer Y. Badawi Vice President Columbia Grain International, Inc.

  2. Topics • Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade • Grain Market Review • Transportation • Trends & Challenges

  3. GLOBAL SEABORNE DRY BULK TRADE

  4. Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade • Iron ore • Coal, Coke • Grains, Agribulks • Bauxite, Alumina, Phosphate Rock • Sugar • Fertilizer • Scrap, Steel Products, Pig Iron • Cement • Forest Products

  5. Clarkson Research & other Seaborne Bulk Profile

  6. Clarkson Research & other Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Forecast adjustment from 6% to 3% growth. Forecast Historical

  7. IRON ORE

  8. Iron Ore Trade volume

  9. COAL

  10. Thermal Coal Trade volume

  11. Coking Coal Trade volume

  12. GRAIN MARKET OVERVIEW

  13. General Outlook for Grain 08/09 World Consumption up by 30MT (1.8%) to 1,714 MT. Almost entirely due to rise in Ethanol use; set to reach 124 MT. Slight increase in direct food consumption 0.6%. TradeForecast up 4.1%

  14. PNW’s Geographical Advantage Grain Imports by Region

  15. World Grain Exports

  16. Grain Exports from The “big 5”

  17. WHEAT

  18. Wheat Outlook • 08/09 World Production: 679 MT 68 MT or 11% above last year’s. 28 MT in EU. • 08/09 World consumption: 631 MT. • World Stocks: to go up by 19 MT, to 131 MT. US stocks to double, to 16 MT. • Shipments by 5 Major Exporters are forecast to increase by 1.8 MT, to 78.4 MT. • Shipments by US to fall by 10.1 MT to 24.5 MT due to greater export availabilities in other countries.

  19. IGC World Wheat Export

  20. Price Trend?

  21. Chicago Wheat Futures

  22. CORN

  23. TRANSPORTATION

  24. Fleet Size Handymax

  25. Bulk Carrier Unit Profile Total 6,903

  26. 2.5Billion Metric tons/Year Bulk Carrier DWT Profile

  27. Vessel Size Trend Vessel Size DWT Profile

  28. Freight Deadweight Growth Fleet up 45%, in 7 years!

  29. Fleet Age Handymax

  30. Bulk Carrier Size/Age Profile Percent

  31. Historical Earnings Handymax

  32. Historical high earnings have been behind the Huge ship-building boom

  33. Historical Earnings $/day

  34. Global markets turmoil. effect on global economies, banks, ship mortgage, and …Psychology.

  35. Baltic Panamax Index 2002 to date

  36. Baltic Panamax Index 2002 to date

  37. Order book represents 70% of current fleet dwt capacity!

  38. Rail Service

  39. Major Rail Serving the US • Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) • Union Pacific (UP) • CSX Corporation (CSX) • Norfolk Southern (NS) • Plus Two Canadian Railroads • Canadian Pacific (CP) • Canadian National (CN)

  40. North American Rail System CSX CP CN BNSF UP NS

  41. Grain Origination

  42. Source: Association of American Railroads

  43. Rail Shuttle Service…What it means to Grain Exporters?

  44. Columbia Grain’s Newest Shuttle Facility Kasa Point, Montana Need for facility upgrade, i.e. spend more $$ 21,773 metric tons of storage Load shuttle in 10 hours

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