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Navigating Decision-Making: Balancing Conflict, Rationality, and Hope

This exploration into personal decision-making delves into the intricacies of cognitive conflict, rationality, and the role of hope. It discusses how uncertainty can lead to inaction and highlights practical strategies for overcoming decision paralysis. By embracing creative alternatives, reflecting with others, and understanding the psychology of group dynamics, individuals can enhance their decision-making skills. The interplay between rational approaches and emotional influences is examined, offering insights into making better choices, whether in personal life or professional settings.

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Navigating Decision-Making: Balancing Conflict, Rationality, and Hope

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Psychology of Personal Decision-Making Conflict, Rationality, and Hope

  2. Agenda • More TED! – Dan Gilbert • “Synthesizing Happiness” • Cognitive Conflict • Group Work • Rationality • Hope

  3. Cognitive Conflict • Cognitive Conflict = Importance x Uncertainty “Stress”

  4. Group Activity • What types of decision problems in other’s lives… • Result in boredom and consequential inaction? • What to do about your examples? • What to eat • Homework • Hanging w/ friends • Investment choices • Relatives commitment? • Job search • Family disagreement Result in panic/paralysis and consequential inaction? Not prepared for tests -> fear Going back to school How to pay your bills -> Too many choices Breaking up w/ someone Big emotions Fear of rejection

  5. Bored/Inaction on a decision? • Create importance/urgency • Think about risks involved • Imagine what happens if worst occurs? • “Lose” time • Create perceived uncertainty • …by getting creative about alternatives

  6. Hyper-aware/paralyzed on a decision? • “Turn down heat” on importance/urgency • Distancing • Put the problem in a friend’s shoes • Easier to see irrationality in others • Schedule time for coffee/reflection • Time = better decisions • Combat complexity/uncertainty • …with cool tools you haven’t learned yet =( • External Memory • Heuristics • Decomposition • Focus on Process instead of outcomes

  7. Rationality

  8. “Representational” Beliefs • RATIONALLY Reduce Uncertainty • Factual evidence (OBSERVABLE) • Represent reality in an unbiased way • Photos, recordings, dates of happenings • X -> Y • Accepted or Rejected based on observability

  9. “Self-Enhancing” Beliefs • IRRATIONALLY reduce uncertainty • Accepted or Rejected based on • Self Concept • Lifestyle • Feelings

  10. Banjara Ford Pinto Example

  11. Chief Banjara Made a Poor Decision • At risk of reducing uncertainty by: • Shifting responsibility • The researchers made me do it! • Looking for biased info • Subscribes to Pinto Aficionado Magazine • Join the Pinto Club • Weakening other alternatives • Decry Subaru’s as out of touch with tribal values • Creating excess reasons • “Pintos are close to beans, fruit of the earth, also my tribe” • “I like to drive knowing I could die at any instant, I am truly in god’s hands and feel closer to her” • Seek social support • Find other tribe leaders with Pintos

  12. Are you thinking Rationally? • TEST #1: How do you respond to challenging information? • “No sense in talking about that any more” • “There’s no alternative” • “I find this terribly upsetting” • “We’ve been through that and there’s no use spending more time on it”

  13. Are you thinking Rationally? • TEST #2: Are you willing to put your beliefs to the test? Observable?? Falsifiable??

  14. Are you thinking Rationally? • TEST #3: How do you respond to: “If an independent analysis were completed for my alternatives, would I be willing to commit to and actually follow the recommended course of action?” • If “no”, then hooray, you’ve got Hidden Values to explore!

  15. Escalating Commitment • Unwillingness to admit initial decisions were bad • Sunk costs • Affect our feelings of competence

  16. Resolving Escalating Commitment • Set commitment limits in advance • Inform others of maximum commitment level • Discuss with others who have no involvement in alternative • Analyze from a competitors shoes • “The card player up $2000” • Does casino want you to leave?

  17. Hope? Er… “Hope!” • Rational decisions require: • Cognitive conflict (gasoline) • Hope (steering wheel) Hope Defined here is a little different: “Belief that rational, unbiased approach to decision-making will result in best outcomes”

  18. Getting “Hope!” • + Problem solving skills • + Notes and resources • + Knowing how to break problems apart • + Developing good relationships • + Practice/Experience

  19. The “decision experts”(Shanteau, 1988) : • Work with others • Don’t have to be right on the first try • Don’t have to be exactly right, even in the end • Don’t have to think about everything at once • Can learn from our mistakes • Instead of defending ourselves • …or making rationalizations

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