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Oorsig: – Suid-Afrikaanse Ekonomie

Oorsig: – Suid-Afrikaanse Ekonomie. Aangebied deur: Dawie Roodt 9 November 2007. Through the Eyes of the World. Source: The Economist January 20-26, 2007 Full page advertisements (Est. Cost: £87,500). The Opposition p. 15. The Home Team p. 17. Value for Money?. But why say it?. GDP.

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Oorsig: – Suid-Afrikaanse Ekonomie

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  1. Oorsig: – Suid-Afrikaanse Ekonomie Aangebied deur: Dawie Roodt 9 November 2007

  2. Through the Eyes of the World Source: The Economist January 20-26, 2007 Full page advertisements (Est. Cost: £87,500)

  3. The Oppositionp. 15

  4. The Home Teamp. 17

  5. Value for Money? But why say it?

  6. GDP

  7. GDP at Market Prices Source: StatsSA and own calculations

  8. GDP Source: StatsSA and own calculations

  9. Employment and Output Growth by Economic Sector, 2005 Source: Productivity Statistics 2006

  10. Fiscal Policy

  11. State Finances Gold

  12. Medium Term Budget (MTBPS) Source: Treasury and own calculations

  13. Monetary Policy

  14. Interest rates

  15. Interest rates Inflation ?

  16. GDP and Real Interest Rates % Source: StatsSA, SARB and own calculations

  17. Inflation

  18. Inflation 14.6% Inflation bracket 10.0% 5.2% Source: StatsSA and own calculations

  19. Debt Levels

  20. Private Sector Credit Extension Source: SARB and own calculations

  21. Household debt to disposable income 59.4% 56.9% 50.2% 44.5% Source: SARB and own calculations

  22. Savings to disposable income of households 9.2% 5.4% 2.6% 0.5% Source: SARB and own calculations

  23. Balance of Payments

  24. Balance of Payments Source: SARS and own calculations

  25. Capital Expenditure First Picture of Cape Town’s New Stadium:

  26. Capital Expenditure

  27. Socio-Economic Development

  28. Close-up on South Africa Source: Unesco and World Bank Development Indicators

  29. Global Trends

  30. Largest Populations, LatestMillions, (% of World Population) Source The economist Pocket word in figures 2007/Nationmaster.com

  31. Population growth estimates 47.0% Source The economist Pocket world in figures 2007

  32. World Rural Versus Urban Population SA: Cross Over 1985 Effect on global demand for food and commodities! Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2005

  33. Biggest Economies GDP by purchasing power (PPP), $bn, 2006 Source International Monetary Fund

  34. Percentage of World GDP ‘06 Source: World Bank

  35. Other Trends

  36. Dollar vs Euro Sub-Prime Crisis 9/11 Source: I-Net

  37. Gold Price, Annual Average London - Dollar weakness - Sub-prime Crisis Record: $850 p.o: -Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan - Revolution in Iran Source: Comex, London Bullion Market Association

  38. Top Gold Producers, 2004 Source The economist Pocket world in figures 2007

  39. Oil Price (Brent Crude) US$ Weakness Conflict in Middle East Nigeria Asian Growth Iran/Iraq War Iranian Revolution Series of Opec cuts Gulf War Yom Kippur War 9/11 Source I-Net

  40. Proved Reserves of Major Oil-Producing Countries, 2004 Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and natural gas liquids 60% ! Source The economist Pocket world in figures 2007 1 Opec members.

  41. Drivers of Commodity Price Increases • New consumer economies in India, China, Russia • Investment demand • Lagging supply increases: • Many years of low prices • Structural under-investments in production • Oil price drivers: • Politics, US$ (short run) • Economics, supply and demand (long run)

  42. The China-Effect • Expanded 10% p.a. for past three years • Imports soared by 330% from $15.5bn per month in 2002, to $64.4bn in December 2005 • Bought 22% of global base metal output in 2005 (5% in 1980) • Doubled crude oil imports from five years ago (2nd largest consumer) • Need to raise living standard • Population of 1.3bn, per capita income of $950 per year (129th in world)

  43. Asset Allocation

  44. Local Equities, 2007

  45. www.efgroup.co.za

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