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Anna Degorska (IEP-NRI) Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya (EMEP/MSC-E)

Country-specific study of cadmium pollution in Poland: data collection, pilot results and future work. Anna Degorska (IEP-NRI) Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya (EMEP/MSC-E). Country-scale pollution assessment for Poland. Outline. Collection of input data Emissions Monitoring

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Anna Degorska (IEP-NRI) Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya (EMEP/MSC-E)

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  1. Country-specific studyof cadmium pollution in Poland: data collection, pilot results and future work Anna Degorska (IEP-NRI) Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya (EMEP/MSC-E)

  2. Country-scale pollution assessment for Poland Outline • Collection of input data • Emissions • Monitoring • Modelling • Regional modelling on old (50x50 km2) and new (0.4° x 0.4°) grid • Country-scale modelling with finer (0.1° x 0.1°) spatial resolution • Joint analysis of the results • Preparation of country-specific information(S-R matrices for voevodships, contribution of source categories, LPS , etc…) • Final report 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  3. Country-scale pollution assessment for Poland Outline • Collection of input data • Emissions • Monitoring • Modelling • Regional modelling on old (50x50 km2) and new (0.4° x 0.4°) grid • Country-scale modelling with finer (0.1° x 0.1°) spatial resolution • Joint analysis of the results • Preparation of country-specific information(S-R matrices for voevodships, contribution of source categories, LPS , etc…) • Final report 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  4. Input data provided by national experts Cd emission 2014 • Spatialdistribution • Emissionfromsectors • Large point sources • Emission of PM10 – detaileddata for national modellingpurposes • Cadmiumemissionin Poland largestinEU28 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  5. Input data provided by national experts Cd in air monitoring stations Directive2004/107/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of 15 December 2004 relating to arsenic, cadmium, mercury, nickel and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in ambient air 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  6. Input data provided by national experts Cd in air Annualaverage: 0,1-2,7 ng/m3 EU limit value: 5 ng/m3 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  7. Input data provided by national experts Cd in precipitation monitoring stations 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  8. Input data provided by national experts Cd deposition 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  9. Country-scale pollution assessment for Poland Outline • Collection of input data • Emissions • Monitoring • Modelling • Regional modelling on old (50x50 km2) and new (0.4° x 0.4°) grid • Country-scale modelling with finer (0.1° x 0.1°) spatial resolution • Joint analysis of the results • Preparation of country-specific information(S-R matrices for voevodships, contribution of source categories, LPS , etc…) • Final report 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  10. Atmospheric modelling (Cd, 2014) Transition from old to new grid in the EMEP region 50x50 km2 0.4°x0.4° Statistical indicators • Air concentrations in old and new grids are similar in Europe • Differences in Africa and Asia are caused by changes in re-suspension • Harmonized land-cover data within CLRTAP is needed 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  11. Country-scale modelling for Poland • Nesting approach used • Boundary concentrations to selected domain from 0.4°x0.4° grid Calculated Cd concentrations in air EMEP domain 0.4° x 0.4° Selected domain 0.1° x 0.1° EMEP stations National (regional) stations National (suburban) stations 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  12. Modelled vs. observed concentrations in air (EMEP and national regional/suburban stations ) EMEP stations National stations Statistical indicators • In case of finer resolution agreement with observed levels is better 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  13. Modelled and observed monthly-mean Cd concentrations in air observed modelled 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  14. Factors affecting seasonal variability of Cd levels • Variability of boundary layer height • Seasonal changes of emissions from particular source categories • Episodes of high concentrations caused by LRTAP Factor 1: Effect of boundary layer height variability Winter: lower ABL, smaller vertical mixing, higher surface concentrations Summer: Higher ABL, higher vertical mixing, lower surface concentrations Emissions: no seasonal changes • The modelled concentrations exhibit seasonal variability due to meteorological factors 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  15. Factor 2: Seasonal changes of Cd emissions Emission scenarios ‘Base case’ – no seasonal changes of emissions Scenarios #1 - #3: monthly changes of total emission with amplitudes 30%, 50% and 70% Modelled and observed Cd conc. Emission in modelling domain ±70% ±30% base case scenario #1 (30%) scenario #3 (70%) observed • Underestimation of Cd concentrations in cold seasons remains 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  16. Sector composition of Cd emission in Poland Cd sectors in Poland Monthly factors ( LOTUS/EUROS model) Industry (B) Residential combustion (C) Other • Sector “Residential combustion” has strong seasonal variability 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  17. National reporting of Cd emissions in Poland Reporting in 2014 Reporting in 2017 9-fold decrease Industry (B) Residential combustion (C) Other National emissions of Cd in Poland was significantly revised recently due to strong decrease of emissions from the Residential combustion sector (C) 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  18. Experimental model calculations with increased emission from “Residential Combustion” • Seasonal variations as in LOTUS-EUROS model • Emission from sector “Residential Combustion” x 5 Cd air concentrations Orig. PL emission PL0505A Res.Comb x 5 Orig. PL emission Increased Res. Combustion Industry (B) Other Observed Res. combustion (C) • Future work: scenario model runs to evaluate effect of “Residential Combustion” 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  19. Factor 3: Analysis of particular episodes caused by LRTAP Cd concentrations in air, 0.1° x 0.1° 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  20. Analysis of episodes using back trajectories Cd emission February, 4 - 10 December, 9 - 15 Frequency of back trajectories (HYSPLIT) Frequency of back trajectories (HYSPLIT) 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  21. Analysis of episodes using back trajectories Cd emission January,14 - 27 November,11 - 20 Frequency of back trajectories (HYSPLIT) Frequency of back trajectories (HYSPLIT) • Emissions in the eastern part of Europe need special attention 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  22. Modelled and observed concentrations in air at Polish urban stations Gdansk Warsaw Plock Modelled (0.1° x 0.1°) and observed concentrations in air • At most of urban stations finer resolution favours improvement of modelling results 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  23. Emission and air concentrations of Cd (Warsaw city) Cd emission (Warsaw) Cd emission (Poland) Air concentrations Warsaw Warsaw PL0214A PL0214A Power plants • Modelling with fine resolution is highly sensitive to spatial distribution of emission data 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  24. Concluding remarks • Air concentrations, calculated in old (stereographic) and new (lat-lon) projections are similar in Europe. However, more work is needed on wet deposition and wind re-suspension • Change of land-cover data resulted to significant changes of modelled levels. Harmonized land-cover data within CLRTAP (for the EMEP centres and WGE) is needed • Transition to finer spatial resolution favours general agreement between modelled and observed concentrations in air in Poland. However, the model tends to underestimate Cd levels in cold season • Factors, affecting seasonal changes include meteorological conditions, seasonal variability of national emissions and transboundary transport from foreign sources • Cd emission from sector “residential combustion” in Poland is probably underestimated • Modelling with fine resolution is highly sensitive to spatial distribution of emission data 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

  25. Further activity • Continue analysis of emission sector composition on Cd levels in Poland, including emission scenarios • Analysis of Cd wet deposition • Preparation of policy-oriented information on Cd pollution in Poland for national experts, including: • - S-R matrices for voevodships • - Contribution of emission source categories to Cd pollution • - Contribution LPS to Cd pollution • - ….. • Joint report on Cd pollution in Poland • Summary report focused on main outcomes of country-specific activities 18th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

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