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INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CHALLENGES : TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2010-2019

PT PLN (PERSERO). INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CHALLENGES : TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2010-2019. 1. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019. The electricity demand growth estimated average 9.3% per year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)

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INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CHALLENGES : TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2010-2019

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  1. PT PLN (PERSERO) INDONESIA ELECTRICITYSUPPLY CHALLENGES:TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2010-2019 1

  2. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019 • The electricity demand growth estimated average 9.3% per year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%) • The electricity sales from year 2010 onwards is forecasted by assuming an average economic growth of 6.2% and an average population growth of 1.17%. • It is anticipated that the sales for those years would not be constrained, as all of the power plants of the fast track program would have been already in operation. • Electrification ratio increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% by the end of 2019. • DSM program to shave and shift peak load has not been taken into account. 2

  3. 54 TWh 21 TWh IB : 10.2% 28 TWh 11 TWh IT : 10,6% 252 TWh 115 TWh JB : 8,97% DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019 JAVA-BALI SYSTEM Electricity Demand growth average 9.3%/year 3

  4. Category : > 60 % 41 - 60 % 20 - 40 % INDONESIA ELECTRICITY RATIO2009 sekita63% NAD 72,7% Sumut 75,5% Kaltim 53,9% Kalselteng 56,3% Riau + Kepri 44,7% Sulutenggo 51,2% Kalbar 49,5% Sumbar 67,6% Sulteng 47,64% Babel 48,4% Sulselrabar 55,8% Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu 50,3% Maluku 53,5% Bali 76,2% Lampung 47,1% Jabar+Banten 64,95% Jatim 61,6% Jateng+Yogya 70,2% NTT 21,7% NTB 29,9% Papua + Irjabar 27,8%

  5. POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING • Some ageing and inefficient oil-fired power plants are retired as soon as more effcient plants are available. • Generation expansion planning is made on least-cost principle, by looking for generation configuration that have minimum system costs. • However, development of renewables (especially geothermal and some hydro) is encouraged, by treating these as fixed plants prior to optimisation process. • Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of <1 day/year is used as reliability criteria during planning process. • The reserve margin is restricted within 35-50% range based on net dependable capacity. Rental power plants and excess power are not taken into account. 5

  6. POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING • Gas supply is assumed to be available for Java Bali system, yet for outside Java – Bali system gas-fired power plants are considered only if there is a definite gas supply. LNG receiving terminal is also considered as one option of gas supply. • Development of small scale coal-fired powerplants is used to substitute oil-fired powerplants for smaller systems, if there is no local primary energy resource available. • Coal-fired power plants with unit size of 1,000 MW supercritical would be introduced into the Java-Bali system. • PLN expects a bigger role from private sector in IPP development. 6

  7. GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN Additional Capacity 53,219MW up to 2019 PLN Generation 32,636MW and IPP 20,583MW, Average 4800MW/year

  8. Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Jawa) • PLTU 1 Jateng-Rembang, 2x315MW, Cons. Zelan+Tronoh+Priamanaya, Contract Signed 21March2007 • PLTU 2 Banten-Labuan, 2x300MW, Cons. Chengda+Truba Jurong, Contract Signed 21March2007 • PLTU 1 Jabar-Indramayu, 3x330MW, Cons. Sinomach+CNEEC+PT Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 21March2007 • 4. PLTU 2 Jatim-Paiton, 1x660MW, Cons. Harbin PE+Mitra Selaras+Hutama Energi, Contract Signed 7August2007 • 5. PLTU 1 Banten-Suralaya, 1x625MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri, Contract Signed 12March2007 • 6. PLTU 1 Jatim-Pacitan 2x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7Augus2007 • 7. PLTU 2 Jabar-Pelabuhan Ratu, 3x350MW, Cons. Shanghai Electric+Maxima Infrastructure, Contract Signed 7August2007 • 8. PLTU 3 Banten-Teluk Naga, 3x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7August2007 • 9. PLTU 3 Jatim-Tg. Awar Awar, 2x350MW, Sinomach+CNEEC+Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 25April2008 • 10. PLTU 2 Jateng-Adipala Cilacap, 1x660MW, Contract 22December2008, COD 2012

  9. Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa) • PLTU 2 Sumut-Pangkalan Susu, 2x220MW, Cons. Guangdong+Nintec+Bagus Karya • PLTU Kepri-Tg. Balai Karimun, 2x7MW, Cons. Shangdong+Rekadaya Elektrika • PLTU NAD-Meulaboh, 2x110MW, Synohydro • PLTU 1 Riau-Bengkalis, 2x10MW, Cons. Guandong Machinery+Modaco+Kelsri+Angkasa Buana • 5. PLTU 2 Riau-Selat Panjang, 2x7MW, Bouwstead Maxitherm • 6. PLTU Sumbar-Teluk Sirih, 2x212MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri • PLTU Lampung-Tarahan Baru, 2x100MW, Jiangxi Electric Power Design Institute+Adhi Karya • 8. PLTU 3 Babel-Bangka Baru, 2x30MW, Cons. Truba,+China Shanghai Group • 9. PLTU 4 Babel-Belitung 2x16,5MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Poeser Indonesia • 10. PLTU 1 Kalbar-Parit Baru, 2x50MW, Cons. Bumi Rama Nusantara+Altons • 11. PLTU 2 Kalbar-Bengkayang, 2x27,5MW, Cons. Guangdong Machinery+Wijaya Karya • PLTU Kalsel-Asam Asam, 2x65MW, Cons. Chengda+Wijaya Karya • 13. PLTU 1 Kalteng, Pulang Pisau, 2x60MW • 14. PLTU 1 NTB-Bima, 2x10MW, Guandong+Modaco Enersys+Angkasa Buana Cipta • 15. PLTU 2 NTB-Lombok,2x25MW, Barata Indonesia • 16. PLTU 1 NTT-Ende 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika • 17. PLTU 2 NTT-Kupang, 2x16,5MW, Shandong Mavhinery+Poeser Indonesia

  10. Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa) 18. PLTU Gorontalo, 2x25MW, Meta Epsi 19. PLTU 2 Sulut-Amurang, 2x25MW, Wijaya Karya 20. PLTU Sultra-Kendari, 2x10MW, Cons. Shangdong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika 21. PLTU Sulsel-Barru, 2x50MW, Cons. Hubei Hongyuan Engineering+Bagus Karya 22. PLTU Maluku Utara-Tidore, 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika 23. PLTU 3 Papua-Jayapura, 2x10MW, Cons. Modern Widya Technical+Boustead Maxitherm

  11. Fast Track Program Phase 2 • More geothermal projects will be developed, and large coal fired power plant in Java to be excluded from Fast Track Program Phase 2. In addition to that, Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Project will be included in the program. • The composition of project will consist of: geothermal 48%, hydro 12%, gas combined cycle 14% and coal fired outside Java-Bali 26%. • The capacity of the projects will be as follows: • Java-Bali: geothermal 2,137 MW, hydro 1,000 MW and gas combined cycle 1,200 MW. • Outside Java-Bali: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 174 MW, geothermal 2,596 MW, and gas combined cycle 240 MW. • Total Indonesia: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 1,174 MW, geothermal 4,733 MW and gas combined cycle 1,440 MW, totalling 9,963 MW.

  12. Fast Track Program Phase 2 • The second phase of fast track program will consist of 3,649 MW of PLN’s project and 6,314 MW of IPP project. • The 1,200 MW gas combined cycle in Java-Bali is Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 project. This project is very strategic in that it will meet the future demand by the year 2011-2012, however the feasibility of the project will subject to gas supply availability. • The 1,000 MW hydro project in Java-Bali is Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage. This project is very strategic as it will serve as peaking unit to replace the role of oil fired plants. • Most geothermal projects will be IPP. To ensure the success of the projects within the time frame of the program (up to 2014), geothermal developers must take immediate project preparation and PLN must make immediate geothermal IPP procurement.

  13. Summary of Fast Track Program Phase 2

  14. Map of Fast Track Program Phase 2 • SUMATERA • PLTA : 174 MW • PLTP : 2285 MW • PLTU : 1100 MW • PLTGU : 120 MW • KALIMANTAN • PLTU : 840 MW • PLTGU : 120 MW • SULAWESI • PLTP : 195 MW • PLTU : 418 MW • MALUKU • PLTP : 40 MW • PLTU : 44 MW • PAPUA • PLTU : 114 MW • NTT • PLTP : 46 MW • PLTU : 30 MW • TOTAL • PLTA : 1174 MW • PLTP : 4733 MW • PLTU : 2616 MW • PLTGU : 1440 MW • TOTAL : 9963 MW • JAMALI • PLTP : 2.137 MW • PLTU : 0 MW • PLTGU : 1.200 MW • PLTA : 1.000 MW • NTB • PLTP :30 MW • PLTU :70 MW

  15. Investment of Fast Track Program Phase 2

  16. TRANSMISSION EXPANSION PLANNINGJAVA-BALI 2008-2018 16

  17. DISTRIBUTION EXPANSION PLAN • ADDIONAL DISTRIBUTION FACILITY UP TO 2019: • MV : 181,000KMS  16,500 KMS/YEAR • LV : 249,500KMS  22,700 KMS/YEAR • DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER : 35,000 MVA  3,200 MVA/YEAR • ADDITIONAL COSTUMER : 27,4 MILION 2,5 MIO/YEAR

  18. PLN INVESTMENT INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 64,7 BILLION, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBISHMENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT

  19. PLN + IPP INVESTMENT INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 83,0 BILLION OR USD 7,6 BILLION PER YEAR, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBIS MENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT

  20. PLN PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM

  21. IPP PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM

  22. SUMMARY For the next 10 years • The average electricity demand would grow at 9.3%/year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%) • Total additional generation capacity for Indonesia is 53,219 MW, consists of 32,636 MW of PLN projects and 20,583 MW of IPP projects • Development of renewable energy, especially geothermal, is encouraged, by additional 5,006 MW by 2018 • Total additional transmission network would reach 44,257 kms for all voltage levels, and total additional of transformers would be 103,000 MVA for all voltage levels. • Total additional distribution network is 175,013 kms for MV, 222,018 kms for LV, 30,877 MVA for distribution transformers and 25 million new customer connections.

  23. SUMMARY • Total investment needed for Gen + Trans + Dis is US$ 64,69 billion (PLN only) or US$ 82,99 billion (PLN+IPP). • Investment needed for PLN power plant projects alone is US$ 38,581 billion, and for IPP projects is US$ 18,31 billion.

  24. SUMMARY Some strategic generation projects: • CCGT Muara Tawar Add-on 2, 3, 4, 1,200 MW, commissioned in 2011-2012. • Fast Track Generation Project 10,000 MW Phase 2 with total capacity of 11,355 MW year 2011-2014 (this figure might change due to recent government’s will to promote more geothernal). • Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage of 4x250 MW in 2014 (WB) • CFPP Jawa Tengah Infrastruktur (IFC) 2x1,000 MW in 2014-2015. • CFPP mine mouth in Sumatera 6x600 MW in 2016-2017 (transferred to Java Bali system) • CCGT LNG Bojanegara 3x750 MW in 2015-2017. 25

  25. SUMMARY Some strategic transmission projects: • HVDC transmission between Sumatera and Java in 2016. • Sub-sea 150 kV Java-Bali circuit 3,4, 2010 • Batam – Bintan interconnected system using sub-sea 150 kV, 2010 • 275 kV transmission connecting West Kalimantan – Serawak in 2011 • 500 kV Java-Bali Crossing from Paiton to Kapal/near Denpasar in 2015 26

  26. PT PLN (PERSERO) Thank You 27

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