The Impact of the Hajj Religion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global Gathering

1. The Impact of the HajjReligion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global Gathering David Clingingsmith, Case Western Asim Ijaz Khwaja, KSG Michael Kremer, Harvard

2. Malcolm X’s Account of Hajj “Never have I witnessed such sincere hospitality and overwhelming spirit of true brotherhood as is practiced by people of all colors and races here in this ancient Holy Land … There were tens of thousands of pilgrims, from all over the world. They were of all colors, from blue-eyed blondes to black-skinned Africans. But we were all participating in the same ritual, displaying a spirit of unity and brotherhood that my experiences in America had led me to believe never could exist between the white and non-white…On this pilgrimage, what I have seen, and experienced, has forced me to rearrange much of my thought-patterns previously held, and to toss aside some of my previous conclusions … I have eaten from the same plate, drunk from the same glass, and slept on the same rug - while praying to the same God - with fellow Muslims, whose eyes were the bluest of blue, whose hair was the blondest of blond, and whose skin was the whitest of white. (The Autobiography of Malcolm X, Alex Haley)

3. Views of Impact of Hajj • Pilgrim accounts stress feelings of unity • Sparked concern of outsiders • British colonial authorities • Recent MI5 monitoring of British pilgrims after it emerged that two 7/7 bombers had recently undertaken the Hajj • Concerns that Saudi version of Islam promoted at expense of local religious traditions (Naipaul, 1981)

4. Isolating the Impact of the Hajj Two views could be consistent In-group vs. out-group? Impact on other identities? Identifying causal impact is difficult Selection problem – those who choose to perform Hajj differ from those who do not Iannacone (1992): costly religious practices screen for commitment Decision to undertake Hajj may be correlated with other changes We address by comparing successful and unsuccessful applicants to Pakistan’s Hajj visa allocation lottery

5. Outline Background on Hajj Statistical approach, visa application process, survey, sample Results Religion Tolerance Gender Health and well-being Socio-political participation Channels – group exposure Conclusion Micro mechanisms? Macro impact?

6. Background on Hajj Formal rituals last 5 days, but most stay 40 days One of five pillars of Islam; obligatory if good health, sufficient means Focus on religious practice (not knowledge) Physically taxing (80 km distance, infectious disease) Traditionally seen as conferring social prestige Social interaction during Hajj Emphasis on equity/unity: standardized rituals, similar dress, head shaving, title at completion may promote common identity Participants observe others from all over the world, but in-depth interaction unlikely Men pray alongside women, are exposed to societies with different gender norms

7. Hajj Visa Allocation Logistical limits on Hajj participation Saudis allocate Pakistan 150,000 Hajj visas Pakistan allocates 66,500 visas to: Private travel operators, who charge US $2,000 - $5,000 Special quotas for military, gov’t employees, two-time lottery losers Remaining 83,500 visas for subsidized government scheme US$2,000 to US$2,400 per person (3 x GDP/capita) 138,000 applicants Lottery We focus on Sunni (90%) lottery applicants from 9 districts in Punjab province

8. Selection Process Application and deposit in bank branch Formation of groups (1-20); lottery over groups Mehrem (close male relative) required for Sunni women Randomization by strata Sect (2) Place of departure (8) Accommodation class (2) Group size effect Randomization checks

9. Lottery Consistent with Random Assignment

10. Data and Survey Surveyed 1605 applicants to January 2006 Hajj from northern districts of Punjab province Survey took place summer to early fall 2006 Early wave: June to mid-July Late wave: September to mid-October No baseline Sample to get roughly equal winners/losers; male/female

11. Lottery Compliance

12. LATE Estimate Estimate: Ykic = Outcomes of interest HAJJic is an indicator for whether individual i went on Hajj in 2006. cis a cell fixed effect. Cells: place of departure X accommodation category X group size. Instrument for HAJJic with indicator Successi LATE = average impact on lottery compliers Captures impact of Hajj provided no direct lottery effect In our case LATE roughly captures counterfactual impact of Hajj on a person who was unable to go due to losing the lottery

13. Identification Strategy: Advantages & Limits Internal validity: randomization helps overcome OVB problem in estimating impact of Hajj on applicants External validity: other populations Higher SES Shia Other regions/countries Nonapplicants; nonmarginal External validity: other time scales We look at 5-8 months after Immediate Long-run

14. External Validity • Overall similar • Applicants more likely to be older, married • Literacy, high school, and log expenditure similar • Excludes tails of distribution: slightly higher literacy but lower college

15. Survey Completion Full sample: 63% overall completion rate 8% refused 26% could not be located/contacted 2% dead Completion rate among applicants we could contact: 87% Possible concern: differential completion rates 67% of successful completed compared to 60% of unsuccessful Successful show slightly lower refusal rates and more likely to be found Reject null hypothesis that rates are equal, p = 0.01 But no difference along observables

16. Survey Completion, ctd. Restricted sub-sample: Balanced on survey completion and reasons for non-completion Difference in ease of survey across regions, quality of survey team Excludes tehsils with more than 25 selected applicants where completion rate for successful applicants >7% higher than that for unsuccessful applicants Excludes 9/49 tehsils 81% of overall sample 66% of winners completed compared to 64% of losers. Fail to reject null that completion rates are equal, p=0.66 Robustness: Redo results with demographic controls, etc. Redo results in restricted subsample

17. Observables Do Not Predict Lottery Success in Our Samples

18. Thematic Indices • Average effect size (AES) • Also report averages over individual variables, components

19. Regarded as Religious • Do others regard you as • religious? • Global Islamic Practice • Praying five times daily • Performing Tasbih • Praying in congregation • Praying Tahajjud Namaz • Reciting Qu’ran • Religious dialogue

20. Localized religious practices • Sufi teachers • Amulets • Chaliswan (40-day ceremony following a death) • Maulud Mehfil • Prayer cap • Widow remarriage views

21. Positive views of others Countries Is your view of Saudi people very positive to very negative? Biggest effect on Indonesia No effect on Europeans Religious/social/ethnic equality Religion effect biggest Harmony Religious, social, ethnic Can people of different groups live in harmony? Religion effect biggest Praying in mosque of different school Particularly large effect

22. Peaceful Inclination Opposing: Osama Bin Laden--Hajj doubles opposition (7% to 13%) Physical punishment: 17% effect Suicide bombing Supporting: Importance of peace with India: 14% effect Political Islam Religion’s role in the state Sig effects on (not) enforcing religion (not) having religious leaders dispense justice Views of West Oppose West social values/tech West against interests of Pak. Western/Jewish role in 9/11

23. Views: relative to men Intellectual Morally Spiritually Biggest effect (+51%) Quality of life Relative to Pakistan: Saudi Arabia (smallest incr.) Indonesia/Malaysia (biggest incr.) West (second biggest incr.) Crimes against women in Pakistan Pak. relatively conservative

24. Education for women School for girls Increase off high base Coeduction 8% incr. both girls/boys Equal schooling girls/boys (no effect) Women in workforce and professions Daughters and grand-daughters Working (up 8%) Professional job (up 7%) Daughter-in-law have job (up 12%)

25. Islamic rules Unequal inheritance Women seeking divorce Unequal witnesses • Household • Management • Number of children • Marriage against parents wishes

26. K6 Index 6 questions on negative feelings in past month e.g. last month felt hopeless, restless, worthless Positive Feelings Joyful, peaceful, content feelings Overall Life and Finances No evidence for income effect Also no effect on monthly consumption

27. Gender difference • K6 effect primarily for women

28. Physical health Lack of injury/illness and self-reported health Self-reported current measure, 5-8 mos. post Hajj Rate of having been ill/injured nearly doubles Gender difference Mainly on women, but still -0.1 SD for men Physical/mental connection? Hard to rule out but think unlikely to be only factor

29. Possible Mechanisms? • Status Change? (little/no personal change during Hajj) • Hajji’s status changes after return and so responds differently • Unlikely: no change in socio-economic or political engagement in medium term • Socioeconomic engagement • Receive/make visits • Give advice to others • Participate in religious, prof, ed. organizations • Employment status • Small positives on out-of-town visitors and self-employment • Political engagement • Voting, party membership, interest in and following of national affairs, opinions about politicians • Hajjis less likely to follow national affairs • Otherwise no effects outcome-by-outcome • Only medium run, though

30. Saudi Influence? • Increased tolerance of different sects • Gender views

31. Formal Islamic Knowledge? • Transformation via Islamic knowledge? • Mix of easy to difficult questions about the Qu’ran • Outcome-by-outcome effects small and insignificant

32. Exposure and Group Observation/Interaction on Hajj? • Increase in experiential knowledge (diversity, gender, global) • Diversity awareness • Divorce/prayer cap questions whose answers depend on schools of thought • Global awareness • Countries bordering Pakistan, % Nigerians Muslim, largest countries • Gender awareness • Gender and marriage issues within Islam (dowry, marriage to Christians/Jews, Hudood) • Having an opinion on women’s issues

33. Exposure and Group Observation/Interactions on Hajj, ctd. • Hajjis return with more positive views of Indonesians (0.32 SD) and Saudis (0.14 SD). • Smaller Hajj parties (more exposed?): • Bigger gains in Islamic gender, global, and (same sign but not sig) diversity awareness indices • Larger increase in positive views of other countries (signs on other tolerance indices also in same direction) • Some evidence for bigger shift away from local religious

34. Global Influence? • Results on tolerance, gender, suggest Hajjis influenced by pilgrims from around globe, not just Saudis • Social psychology of group interaction • Empathy versus antipathy to others • Depends on context: cooperative versus competitive • Hajj as “glue” that makes for a cooperative environment? • Common goal for all, overall unity emphasized • More than that? Religion legitimizes/limits change

35. Conclusions Micro mechanisms that facilitate strengthening of common identity Removal from usual environment Change in dress; physical appearance Common ritual Change in title Similar mechanisms in other social institutions that build common identity? Medical education; police training; military basic training; international peace camps – similar effect? Macro: role of pilgrimage in evolution of belief systems Pilgrimages very common How survive in competition among religions? Club goods models of religion Practices screen out people who provide lower public goods BUT evolutionary pressures toward productive signals in competitive religious market World religions: how to adapt to local conditions while retaining coherence--danger of division and schism Hierarchy one solution (not present in Sunni Islam) Hajj (and single text, etc.) may be another – convergence Elimination of non-Islamic influence from the Hajj What is impact on pilgrims from other areas?

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38. Iannaccone (1992) Q: Why do religions often require adherents to perform costly activities (e.g., behavior prohibitions, restrictions on dress, pilgrimages)? A: Religions are clubs in which people receive positive externalities from committed co-religionists. Costly activities screen for commitment.

39. Viewing Hajj through lens of Ianaccone model Hajj involves substantial personal sacrifice Financial (>$2000 in sample) Time (40 days average in sample) Physical and mental strain Costly activities like Hajj could flourish in competitive marketplace for adherents if useful to the religion E.g., by promoting its survival Islam is extraordinarily successful as a world religion. Has survived, flourished under competitive pressure. Is Hajj just about screening, or does it have a treatment effect? If so, what?

40. Hajjis are exposed to Muslims from many other countries. Hajj may thereby promote a standardization of religious belief Suppose a group of dynasties indexed by i. Let the religious beliefs and practices of dynasty i in generation t be xi,t. Suppose that xi,t+1 = αxi,t + (1-α)xt +εi,t+1, where xt is the average belief/practice of all Muslims andεi,t+1is an i.i.d. random variable. The Hajj reduces α. It is straightforward to show var (xi,t+1) = var(xi,t)+2 and that in the steady state This implies that the Hajj reduces variance in belief.

41. Application and Selection Process Applications made at bank branches around Pakistan. Deposits submitted Applicants grouped into parties of up to 20. Application data entered into computer. Parties chosen randomly to win the ballot. Selection continues until total number of visas to be allocated is exhausted. Selection nominally stratified by place of departure and accommodation category, sect Data we have was generated immediately after ballot, before anyone found out the results. Results are announced. Some adjustments may be need; for example following withdrawals.

42. Survey Sample Random sample of Sunni applicants to the 2006 Hajj Stratified by gender and randomization into win/loss status Northern districts of Punjab province chosen for convenience

43. Interview status by lottery outcome

44. Survey Development Survey development based on literature, discussions with scholars, pretesting Wide range of questions on health, religion, social relations, political beliefs, and economic outcomes. Effects on individual and on others’ perceptions, Individual and family.

45. Survey Mechanics Survey administered at the household level. Randomly select a party, and then a member of that party. If they live with a party member of the opposite gender, select them also. Average 1.6 applicants per household. Survey approximately 2.5 hours duration. Two survey teams worked out of Rawalpindi and Faisalabad cities. Areas varied in the difficulty of surveying.

46. Introduction We present some initial results that speak to the role of Hajj as an institution within Islam. These results relate to: A literature that suggests Hajj may promote orthodoxy, unity with Muslims worldwide. Debate on local practices in South Asia, elsewhere. Concerns regarding relations between Muslims and others and the role of Hajj.

47. Engagement and exposure • Participation and interest in political and national affairs • Social interaction • Formal religious knowledge • Awareness of diversity within Islam • Views on gender and marriage in Islam • Global awareness

48. Views on Tolerance How do Hajjis view people from other countries and groups? How do Hajjis view the possibility of social cooperation and compromise across groups?

49. Moving toward what? Political/Radical Islam? Unlikely (religion & govt views unchanged) Saudi practice? Possible BUT Religious tolerance; later gender results Original intent vs Global norm? Hard to separate

50. Survey Summary Statistics