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9 th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011 TIGGE LAM Report Tiziana Paccagnella

9 th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011 TIGGE LAM Report Tiziana Paccagnella with contributions from J. Kacker, J. Chen, C. Saulo and other colleagues. Content. TIGGE LAM overall activities New Structure of the Panel The Plan Archiving

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9 th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011 TIGGE LAM Report Tiziana Paccagnella

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  1. 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011 TIGGE LAM Report Tiziana Paccagnella with contributions from J. Kacker, J. Chen, C. Saulo and other colleagues 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  2. Content • TIGGE LAM overall activities • New Structure of the Panel • The Plan • Archiving • Link with FDPs and RDPs & Link with the WWRP Mesoscale WG • Frost FDP RDP • Hymex • Activities in Europe • EurEPS Project (SRNWP) • LAM-EPS meeting & LAMEPS BC project • EPS DA meeting > Bologna • High resolution precipitation analyses (HIPRECA) • Link with SRNWP Interoperability Programme • Activities in NA by Josh Hacker • Activities in Asia by Jing Chen • Activities in SA by Celeste Saulo • TIGGE LAM @ …. 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  3. TIGGE LAM overall activities 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  4. Restructuring of the Panel The Panel has been (and is being) restructured trying to make it more efficient at Regional level. New members have been asked to join the Panel to engage people personally involved in LAM EPS and then in the position to make plans and to take commitments. The Panel has been divided in regional sub-groups: N. America < J. Hacker Asia < J. Chen Europe < T. Paccagnella S. America < C. Saulo Africa < S. Landman Australia/New Zealand 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  5. TIGGE LAM Plan The TIGGE LAM plan almost ready. Some more work done especially on the scientific issues. Tiziana and Josh will revise it together during the SRNWP meeting in Tallin next month. Plan on the web in November 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  6. Archiving Archiving of high priority parameters on regular lat/lon grids. • CMA is starting the archiving of TIGGE LAM HP parameters from CMA Regional system. • The archiving of European products at ECMWF has been slowed down due to other priorities at ECMWF. Archiving of TIGGE LAM products on their native grids • LAM EPS are going to run at the convective-permitting scale. Products on the native grids should be made available and tools to manage these data should be developed. • As regards Europe, this task has been included into the GEO-WOW FP7 < D. Richardson presentation 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  7. Link with FDPs and RDPs & Link with the WWRP Mesoscale WG 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  8. Link with FDPs and RDPs LAM EPS and Hymex TTM1a High resolution ensemble hydrometeorological modelling for quantification of uncertainties Leaders: A. Montani V. Homar ARPA-SIMC, Italy Universitat de les Illes Balears, Spain amontani@arpa.emr.it victor.homar@uib.es ARPA-SIMC (Italy) ISAC CNR (Italy) Météo-France (France) UIB (Spain) NRL (US) … others to join?… More about Hymex by L. Descamps 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  9. TTM1a – main objectives • LAM Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) with parameterized convection and typical horizontal resolution of about 10 km, employed for short and medium-range forecasts (up to 5 days). • Convection-Permitting Ensemble Prediction Systems (CPEPS) with explicit convection and horizontal resolution of a few kilometres, employed for short-range predictions (up to 48 hours). • Hydrological ensemble predictions. • Calibration methods. • Verification methods. Interlinks with Data Assimilation. On the one hand, data assimilation methods taking into account the flow-dependent instabilities need to identify the growing perturbations at convective scales. On the other hand, the use of an ensemble system for data assimilation purposes poses some constraints on the way the ensemble should be built. 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  10. Link with FDPs and RDPs FROST-2014Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed Tiziana !!! 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  11. FROST 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  12. FROST-2014Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed WG1: Observations and nowcasting (including Verification) WG Leader: Arcadi Koldaev / Valery Lukyanov / Yuriy Melnichuk (radars) Members: Arcadi Koldaev, Yury Melnichuk, Yong Wang, Paul Joe, George Isaac, Roy Rasmussen, Dmitri Moisseev, Peter Romanov, Anatoly Muravev, IRAM representatives, Gdaly Rivin, Evgeny Vasilev, Pertti Nurmi? WG2: NWP, ensembles and assimilation (including Verification) WG Leader: Michail Tsyrulnikov / , Andrea Montani Members: Stephane Belair, Andrea Montani, Detlev Majewski, Gdaly Rivin, Yong Wang, Roy Rasmussen, TizianaPaccagnella, Donghi Wang, Anatoly Muravev, Michail Tolstykh, Inna Rozinkina, Pertti Nurmi? WG3: IT including graphical tools, formats, archiving and telecommunication WG Leader: Dmitry Kiktev Members: Alex Kolker, Vladimir Krupchatnikov, Sergei Loubov, Gennady Novikov, Alexander Smirnov WG4: Products, training, end user assessment and social impacts WG Leader: Valery Lukyanov / Evgeny Vasilev Members: Vladimir Oganesian, George Isaac, Anatoly Muravev, Dmitry Moiseev, Pertti Nurmi, Galina Zaimskikh, Inna Rozinkina, Pertti Nurmi. 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  13. 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  14. FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project)ensemble activities SOCHMEL7: limited-area ensemble system based on COSMO (“relocation” of COSMO-LEPS) Horizontal resoluzion: 7 km. Vertical resolution: 40 model levels. Forecast range: 72 hours. Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC. Ensemble size: 10 members. Boundary conditions: selected ECMWF EPS members. Initial conditions: interpolated from ECMWF EPS members. 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  15. Link with WWRP MWFR WG 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  16. Activities in Europe 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  17. SRNWP-EurEPS-2013-2017Cooperation on European Limited-area Ensemble Prediction Systems From slides by C. Marsigli • EurEPS - A proposal by the SRNWP Expert Team on Predictability and EPS • In the Roadmap for the Forecasting Capability Area of EUMETNET the creation of a Eur-EPS Programme is envisaged • A major cooperative effort is required to develop a capability for convection-permitting ensemblesin order to address prediction of severe or high-impact weather in a probabilistic framework • EurEPS • Phase I is proposed to be carried out in 2013, in order to identify properly all the needed technical facility, the requirements for Research and Development to design properly this innovative kind of systems and the potential framework for running the Phase II as a demonstration project • Phase II would be executed over a 4-year time frame (2014–2017) as a demonstration project 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  18. SRNWP LAM-EPS meeting, Bologna, 22-23 February 2011Some Outcomes • The EUMETNET Forecasting Roadmap has been presented by A. Horanyi: Short-Range EPS is one of the 4 priority areas for cooperation which have been identified • Requirements to ECMWF in terms of EPS boundary conditions to drive LAM-EPSs have been discussed. 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  19. LAMEPS BC project • Possibilities being explored: • 2 extra EPS runs at 06 and 18 UTC • Higher resolution for the first 2 days • Lower resolution up to 6 days • T1279 up to 48 h, 21 members • T639 up to 144 h, 51 members • M. Leutbecher ECMWF performs some test cases and data sets are available • LAM-EPS interested partners will perform tests of their systems driven by these BCs within 6 months (until January 2012). • A meeting will be organised at ECMWF in Spring 2012, to evaluate the possible establishment of such LAMEPS BC 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  20. SRNWP LAM-EPS meeting, Bologna, 22-23 February 2011Some Outcomes from the minutes • It was decided to make an inventory of the status and plans of LAM-EPS activities within SRNWP, based on the review provided by this meeting, highlighting the scientific issues. • This inventory would provide the basis to write a common paper, to be submitted to BAMS, where the status of the European contribution to TIGGE-LAM will be presented. Tiziana will contact the editor. • After the meeting, the proposal to write and submit a Community Paper to BAMS has been extended to all the LAM EPS community and has been accepted • The content and the structure of the paper should be defined within October 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  21. EPS DA meeting > Bologna Q15 In building analysis ensembles, some centres generate pairs of positive and negative perturbations or implement some other centering of analysis perturbations (with the intention to improve the quality of the ensemble mean forecast). Other centres seem to avoid such centering of initial perturbations (with the intention to simplify the scheme and to let the perturbations explore more phase-space directions). Is there any recent evidence in favour of either approach? Q16 How to compare different DA methods on the convectionpermitting scale in a scientifically acceptable way (duration, domain, resolution, physics of the models, etc.)? Q17 What diagnostic methods can the data assimilation community offer to assess the realism of stochastic parameterizations for representing model uncertainty? (e.g.through the correctness of the background error covariance matrix?) A question (Q18) has been then posed by T. Paccagnella: is it possible to initialise a CP model with an analysis obtained by computing the ensemble mean of an EnKF? Are there balance problems? Q19 What are the key factors controlling the structure and magnitude of analysis errors and background errors? How essential is a representation of model uncertainty for obtaining reliable flow-dependent estimates of background error covariances? Q20 Given the increasing complexity of forecast models (e.g., nonhydrostatic formulation, micro physics, ...), what are the consequences of this process for data assimilation algorithms? More specific, what is the future of 4d-var with its crucial role of linear physics? Q1. Model error Q2 Covariance filtering Q3 Localisation Q4 Enforcing large scale from host model Q5 Non-gaussianity and non-linearity Q6 The ensemble system should mimic the DA system Q7 Choice of data assimilation method (proposed by DA parallel session) Q8 Is it possible a “good” selection of a few relevant global/driving EPS members? Q9 Can we really get rid of balance constraint? Q10 scalability Q11 Are there any things we should not perturb (such as the orography)? Q12 Experiments in toy models suggest that the use of flow-dependent covariances gives much improved analyses. To date the benefits of using ensemble forecasts in NWP analyses have been much smaller. What is the cause of this discrepancy? Some have suggested model error - is there a way to prove if this is the cause? Q13 Is it possible to formulate a weak-constraint EnKF, similar to weak constraint 4D-Var? Q14 (Q7 of DA list) Is an ensemble based on singular vectors any use for DA? What about the one based on error-breeding? 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  22. HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products. The possibility to implement an European archive of high resolution precipitation analyses based on high density network data is being explored. Contacts are established with ECMWF and with other European groups and initiatives with the same objectives. 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  23. HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products. Criticity > lack of resources Cooperation with other similar initiatives in Europe. A meeting has been organized by Anna Ghelli at ECMWF on the 2nd Dec 2010. This meeting was aimed to coordinate this activity with the EUMETGRID/EUMETNET project leaded by Ole Tveito from Met.No. Participants: Anna Ghelli (ECMWF), Ole Tveito (Met.No), Dan Hollis (MetOffice), Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC TIGGE LAM). This initiative should also link with other ongoing projects like EURO4M and ARCIS (Northern Italy initiative) Possibility to set-up a coordinated activity (to be hopefully funded by submitting a project proposal to EU) Ongoing contacts with Ole Tveito. This issue will be raised next week at the MWFR WG meeting in Berlin. 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  24. SRNWP Interoperability ProgrammeCoordinator: Rachel North – Met Office Courtesy R. North 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  25. SRNWP Interoperability ProgrammeCoordinator: Rachel North – Met Office Courtesy R. North Continuation of the SRNWP Programme under discussion • Possible deliverables: • Maintenance Plan for the Adaptors • Extension of the existent SW tools to provide Lateral Boundary Conditions from Global and LAM to LAM • Soil aspects and Interoperability of Surface fields The ET EPS and TIGGE LAM have been requested by Rachel North to express their opinions about the different possible options for phase two Next steps (during Autumn): • Final agreement among the Programme Partners about the content of the continuation proposal • Submission of the proposal to STAC/PFAC and the the EUMETNET Assembly 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  26. Activities in NA by Josh Hacker 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  27. Activities in NA by Josh Hacker Joshua Hacker 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  28. Joshua Hacker 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  29. Activities in Asia by Jing Chen 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  30. Asia Regional EPSActivitiesJing Chen • China, Japan and Korea will held workshop on Numerical Weather Prediction at Seoul from 1 Sep. 2011 to 2 Sep 2011 • To share experience and knowledge on promotion of ensemble prediction system (EPS) products under uncertainty • Discussing Regional cooperation for developing

  31. Comparison of GEPS and REPS for China Precip. Brier Score Reliability diagram 36-60hr 36-60hr Locations of 2510 rain gauge stations Area of ROC for heavy rain

  32. CMA Future plans • The Numerical Prediction Center (NPC) ,CMA was established in April. 2010. • NPC will develop The Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) as the next generation medium-range operational model of CMA. • NPC will develop GRAPES-based GEPS and REPS also. • 2015 : real running of GRAPES-REPS with 0.15 degree

  33. Development of Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) at JMA Objective:provide information on uncertainty in operational numerical prediction from the mesoscale model (MSM). (MSM: operated on a domain covering Japan and its surrounding region with 5km grid spacing.) Current Status: Methodologies have been implemented to create perturbed Initial conditions. Singular Vector Method, Ensemble Data assimilation (EnKF, En3DVar) Consideration is underway on resolution and ensemble size: more emphasis on probability information (=> low resolution, large ensemble size) / on multiple scenarios (=> high resolution, small ensemble size) design of perturbed boundary condition, model-physics perturbation etc.

  34. Forecast Example from the MEPS (3-h precipitation) Observation Initial : 18 UTC, 11 July 2010 (T+06) Forecast : dx =10 km, Num. of forecasts 41 Perturbation : Singular vector method Control forecast Ensemble maximum Ensemble spread

  35. 1) Development and comparison of initial perturbation methods using mesoscale/global SV, BGM and LETKF and lateral perturbation methods in the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP): • Saito, K., M. Kunii, M. Hara, H. Seko, T. Hara, M. Yamaguchi, T. Miyoshi and W. Wong, 2010: WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Forecast Demonstration / Research and Development Project (B08FDP/RDP). Tech. Rep. MRI, 62, 210pp. • Saito, K., M. Hara, M. Kunii, H. Seko, and M. Yamaguchi, 2011: Comparison of initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute for the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP). Tellus, 63A, 445-467. • Kunii, M., K. Saito, H. Seko, M. Hara, T. Hara, M. Yamaguchi, J. Gong, M. Charron, J. Du, Y. Wang and D. Chen, 2011: Verifications and intercomparisons of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems in B08RDP. Tellus, 63A, 531-549. • Duan, Y., J. Gong, M. Charron, J. Chen, G. Deng, G. DiMego, J. Du, M. Hara, M. Kunii, X. Li , Y. Li, K. Saito, H. Seko, Y. Wang, and C. Wittmann, 2011: An overview of Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (conditionally accepted) • Saito, K., H. Seko, M. Kunii and T. Miyoshi, 2011: Effect of lateral boundary perturbations on the breeding method and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter for mesoscale ensemble prediction. Tellus. (conditionally accepted) • 2) Validation of regional EPS and ensemble storm scale data assimilation: • Seko, H., K. Saito, M. Kunii1 and M. Kyouda, 2009: Mesoscale Ensemble Experiments on Potential Parameters for Tornado Formation. SOLA, 5, 57-60. • Saito, K., T. Kuroda, M. Kunii and N. Kohno, 2010: Numerical Simulations of Myanmar Cyclone Nargis and the Associated Storm Surge Part 2: Ensemble prediction. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 88, 547-570. • Aonashi, K. and H. Eito, 2011: Displaced Ensemble Variational Assimilation Method to Incorporate Microwave Imager Brightness Temperatures into a Cloud-resolving Model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 89, 175-194. • Seko, H., T. Miyoshi, Y. Shoji and K. Saito, 2011: A data assimilation experiment of PWV using the LETKF system -Intense rainfall event on 28 July 2008-. Tellus, 63A, 402-414. • 3) Development of a cloud resolving ensemble analysis/prediction sytem in the K-computer project • http://www.jamstec.go.jp/hpci-sp/kisyo/kisyo.en.html#kisyo_2 Researches at MRI/JMA relating to regional EPS

  36. Activities in SA by Celeste Saulo 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  37. Super model ensemble system By Celeste Saulo http://www.master.iag.usp.br/ind.php?inic=00&prod=intercomparacaodemodelos/phps

  38. SMES By Celeste Saulo Nowincludes 54 model outputs, that combine GCMs, with regional models (mainy ETA-BRAMS, and WRF). Somemodelscontributewithdifferentmembers of theirensemble (CPTEC models, forexample) Products are available at stationpoints (notmaps!) The web page isinteractive, and theuser can selectanymodel, and anysynopticstation and plotsurface variables forecasts

  39. Examples By Celeste Saulo Surfacetemperatureaccordingtosomemodels. Blue dots are theobservations and red curve istheSuperEnsemble Mean (biascorrected!)

  40. By Celeste Saulo ? Complex case... 11-12 days of useful forecast Note that this is particularly difficult period to forecast! Large discrepancies 7-8 days of usefull forecast

  41. Products developed at CIMA (CONICET-UBA) -ARGENTINA By Celeste Saulo http://wrf.cima.fcen.uba.ar Using the SMES, we routinely produce probabilistic precipitation forecasts over part of South America. These products are calibrated using GTS data and/or CMORPH data (other results available in Ruiz et al 2009 (W&F) and Cardazzo et al 2010 (Meteorologica)

  42. TIGGE LAM @ …. • DRIHMS (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study) -First open consultation meeting. Genova 14 Oct. 2010. “Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting and TIGGE-LAM” Tiziana Paccagnella • EGU 2010 Meeting, Vien. TIGGE, TIGGE LAM and the GIFS T. Paccagnella D. Richardson D. Schuster R. Swinbank Z. Toth S. Worley • 4th HYMEX workshop, Bologna, 8-10 June 2010. “HyMeX and TIGGE-LAM”. Laurent Descamps, Andrea Montani, Tiziana Paccagnella • QPE QPF Meeting, 2010 Nanjing. Ongoing developments on LIMITED AREA ENSEMBLE FORECASTING and TIGGE LAMTiziana Paccagnella • SOCHI Kick Off Meeting, 2011 Sochi. TIGGE LAM & SOCHI 2014T. Paccagnella R. Swinbank Z. Toth • WWRP JSC Meeting 2011 Geneva • EPS DA SRNWP meeting – 2011 Bologna • LAM EPS meeting – 2011 Bologna • Contribution to the definition of the GEO-WOW FP7 proposal • Contribution to THORPEX mid-term report • ERM – Sarah Jones • TIGGE – R. Swinbank and Zoltan Toth 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  43. Thank you! 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  44. SUPPORTING AND COMPLEMENTARY SLIDES 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  45. Slide by C. Marsigli SRNWP-EurEPS-2013-2017Cooperation on European Limited-area Ensemble Prediction Systems EurEPS - A proposal by the SRNWP Expert Team on Predictability and EPS 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  46. The new EurEPS proposalTo be presented at the EUMETNET Assembly on November 22nd Slide by C. Marsigli • In the Roadmap for the Forecasting Capability Area of EUMETNET the creation of a Eur-EPS Programme is envisaged • A major cooperative effort is required to develop a capability for convection-permitting ensemblesin order to address prediction of severe or high-impact weather in a probabilistic framework • EurEPS - Phase I is proposed to be carried out in 2013, in order to identify properly all the needed technical facility, the requirements for Research and Development to design properly this innovative kind of systems and the potential framework for running the Phase II as a demonstration project 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  47. Phase I The new EurEPS proposal Slide by C. Marsigli Phase I will: • build whenever possible on existing know-how and expertise, available within the various European NWP Consortia; • plan the use of results from SRNWP-I and SRNWP-V project for verification and interoperability of EPS; • schedule scientific and technical experiments for later to design a convection-permitting ensemble system; • consider the most suitable initial state, its ensemble spread, the models errors and lower-boundary uncertainties, the available nesting techniques; • meet the requirements of all the involved partners, to provide a suitable system, applicable by the different Meteorological Centres, which will permit to significantly improve the forecasts of high impact weather • Analyze and evaluate: • state-of-the-art of LAM-EPS scientific methodologies for very high-resolution ensemble, including technical constraints; • available and future computer resources scenarios; • consider the necessary products for key end-users • deliver the EurEPS Phase II project proposal for the EUMETNET Advisory Committees 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  48. Phase II The new EurEPS proposal Slide by C. Marsigli • Phase II would be executed over a 4-year time frame (2014–2017) as a demonstration project that, outside of a fully operational context, would hopefully show the usefulness of its results towards fundamental case studies and the likely implementability of a full EurEPS project with a distributed load of responsibility among Members when adequate computing resources might be allocated. 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

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