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Researching the Health Care Debate

Researching the Health Care Debate. Wharton School October 23, 2008. The Myth of Non-Biased Sources. Bias. Ideological Bias Institutional Bias Personal-Actualization Bias. How You Present Data Matters. 2 million Americans are behind on their mortgages!

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Researching the Health Care Debate

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  1. Researching the Health Care Debate Wharton School October 23, 2008

  2. The Myth of Non-Biased Sources

  3. Bias • Ideological Bias • Institutional Bias • Personal-Actualization Bias

  4. How You Present Data Matters • 2 million Americans are behind on their mortgages! • More than 94% of mortgages are current.

  5. A Few Common Claims • 47 million Americans without health insurance • Rudy’s Prostate • Life expectancy = Quality of health care system

  6. 47 million Americans without health insurance • Actually 45.7 million • U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Report, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2007 • 12.1 million eligible for current programs • National Institutes of Health • 20 million are not US Citizens • U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Report, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2007 • 3.5 million have incomes over $75,000 • U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Report, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2007 • 10.1 million have incomes over $50,000 • U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Report, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2007

  7. 47 million Americans without health insurance • 45 % Uninsured for less than 4 months • 16 % uninsured for more than 2 years • CBO, How Many People Lack Health Insurance and For How Long?

  8. Rudy’s Prostate • 5 year survival rates: • US 98% • UK 74.4% • BUT death rate from prostate cancer • US 26.7 per 100,000 men • UK 27.0 per 100,000 men

  9. Rudy’s Prostate • Early Screening? • Mislabeling? • Higher incidence in US?

  10. Life Expectancy • US has lower life expectancy than other industrialized nations: • Japan 82.0 years • Canada 80.4 years • France 80.2 years • Germany 79.4 years • UK 79.1 years • US 77.8 years • OECD Health Data, 2008

  11. Life Expectancy • Exogenous factors • Murders, suicides, accidents • Lifestyle (obesity, smoking) • Utah 78.7 years • Nevada 75.9 years • U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005.

  12. Projections are even worse

  13. Assumptions MatterorGarbage In, Garbage Out

  14. How much does Obama health plan cost? • $65 billion per year • Obama Campaign • $110 billion per year • Lewin Group • $160 billion per year • Urban Institute/Brookings Institution • $600 billion per year • Health Systems Innovations

  15. Insurance Coverage Under McCain Plan • 27.5 Million more insured • Steve Parente, University of Minnesota • 5 million fewer insured • Health Affairs

  16. “Every econometric study is an effort in persuasion. I have to persuade the other guy that my assumptions are responsible. Depending on what I feed into the model, I get totally different answers.” -- Uwe Reinhardt Princeton University

  17. American Health Quality Association (www.ahqa.org) Council for Affordable Health Insurance (www.CAHI.org) Duke University Center for Health Policy (www.hpolicy.duke.edu) The Commonwealth Fund (www.commonwealthfund.org) Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (www.ahrq.gov) The Galen Institute (www.galen.org) Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation (www.kff.org) CBO – Health (www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/health.cfm) American College of Physicians (www.acponline.org) Journal of American Medicine (http://jama.ama-assn.org) New England Journal of Medicine (www.NEJM.org) Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (www.rwjf.org) Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (www.cms.hhs.gov) U.S. Census Bureau, Health Insurance (www.census.gov/hhes/www/hlthins/hlthins.html) Websites

  18. WWW.CATO.ORG

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