1 / 20

El Nino in the Winter of 2014?

El Nino in the Winter of 2014?. David W. Pierce Div. Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Why does El Nino affect other places?. Why does El Nino affect other places?. Global atmospheric pressure pattern “steers” weather.

chassidy-evans
Télécharger la présentation

El Nino in the Winter of 2014?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. El Nino in the Winter of 2014? David W. Pierce Div. Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography Scripps Institution of Oceanography

  2. Why does El Nino affect other places?

  3. Why does El Nino affect other places? Global atmospheric pressure pattern “steers” weather Horel and Wallace, 1981

  4. Typical winter weather response Precipitation

  5. Typical winter weather response Precipitation Temperature

  6. Satellite-measured Cholorphyll Concentrations

  7. Conditions in tropical Pacific as of Aug 5

  8. Conditions in tropical Pacific as of Aug 5

  9. El Nino http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/#enso-sst_table

  10. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/#enso-sst_tablehttp://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/#enso-sst_table

  11. El Nino: Benefit or burden?

  12. El Nino 97/98 damage in U.S. • 189 deaths from storms/flooding • Property losses: $2.8B • Federal relief costs: $400M • State assistance costs: $125M • Agricultural losses: $600-$700M • Lost sales in snow removal eqpt: $60-80M • Losses in tourist industry: $180-$200M (Changnon, BAMS, 1999)

  13. El Nino 97/98 benefits to U.S. • ~850 lives saved from warm N. winter • Reduced heating costs: $6.7B • More retail activity in winter: $5.6B • Less snow removal needed: $350-400M • No Atlantic hurricanes: $6.9B • More winter construction: $450-500M • Reduced transportation costs: $160M (Changnon, BAMS, 1999)

  14. El Nino 97/98 balance sheet • Losses • Lives: 189 • Economic losses and costs: $4.2-4.5B • Benefits • Lives: ~850 • Economic savings and generation: $19.6-19.9B (Changnon, BAMS, 1999)

  15. Summary • El Nino is when equatorial Pacific ocean temperatures are warmer than usual • Changes where water vapor gets into atmosphere and typical path of winter storms • Warms waters and elevates sea level all along the west coast of the Americas • Best forecast right now: ~75% chance of modest El Nino this winter • Really big anomalies from this spring have dwindled

More Related